East Tennessee Weather

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#8,753
#8,753
Something important to note:

The 18z GFS runs have had a lot of trouble this winter when it comes to showing big storms. If you ever see JC post the 18z run for the GFS, take it with a grain of salt, as for some reason it hasn't been doing well.
 
#8,754
#8,754
Vol knight said:
Something important to note:

The 18z GFS runs have had a lot of trouble this winter when it comes to showing big storms. If you ever see JC post the 18z run for the GFS, take it with a grain of salt, as for some reason it hasn't been doing well.
Click to expand...

I take them all with a grain of salt this far out...the GFS is useful only because they update it four times a day..
here is the 18z
gfs_asnow_us_27.png
 
#8,757
#8,757
VolnJC said:
I take them all with a grain of salt this far out...the GFS is useful only because they update it four times a day..
here is the 18z
gfs_asnow_us_27.png
Click to expand...

You can tell this model is struggling this far out, it's showing 0 inches of snow in the heart of the Appalachian mountains.
 
#8,758
#8,758
VolnJC said:
I take them all with a grain of salt this far out...the GFS is useful only because they update it four times a day..
here is the 18z
gfs_asnow_us_27.png
Click to expand...

I know that all model runs this far out have to be taken with a grain of salt. I'm talking about the 18z runs for the GFS in general. Let's just say the 3 other GFS models runs in the day did better than the 18z this winter.

Something I found interesting about the models is that the GFS and Canadian models are free for anyone to view, while the Euro and UKMet models cost money to view.
 
#8,759
#8,759
TWC just showed this weekends storm setup with plenty of gulf moisture being pulled up. They said heavy snow Sunday/Sunday night for the whole state and on Monday it was basically solid ice for the whole state.

I hope the ice stays way South of us.
 
#8,760
#8,760
Orange_Vol1321 said:
TWC just showed this weekends storm setup with plenty of gulf moisture being pulled up. They said heavy snow Sunday/Sunday night for the whole state and on Monday it was basically solid ice for the whole state.

I hope the ice stays way South of us.
Click to expand...

Same here ice storms are miserable
 
#8,766
#8,766
VolnJC said:
CMC(Canadian) model
gem_asnow_us_30.png
Click to expand...

Am I reading that for correctly? Over a foot in the valley? I know it's a while out and it should be taken with a grain of salt, but is that model usually fairly accurate?

Really hope we get a lot of snow next week!
 
#8,768
#8,768
RockVol said:
Am I reading that for correctly? Over a foot in the valley? I know it's a while out and it should be taken with a grain of salt, but is that model usually fairly accurate?

Really hope we get a lot of snow next week!
Click to expand...

It's OK but not as good as the European model..GFS is best American model..it's NOAA's model

CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre, which hosts the CMC weather model. This weather model is on average slightly less accurate than the GFS and ECMWF weather models, and does well in patterns with a lot of blocking or amplification, and tends to do much worse with amplified patterns. It is run twice a day, and comes out around midnight and noon. 0z run can be viewed here and the 12z run can be viewed here.
 
#8,769
#8,769
VolnJC said:
It's OK but not as good as the European model..GFS is best American model..it's NOAA's model

CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre, which hosts the CMC weather model. This weather model is on average slightly less accurate than the GFS and ECMWF weather models, and does well in patterns with a lot of blocking or amplification, and tends to do much worse with amplified patterns. It is run twice a day, and comes out around midnight and noon. 0z run can be viewed here and the 12z run can be viewed here.
Click to expand...

Thanks:hi:
 
#8,770
#8,770
VolnJC said:
It's OK but not as good as the European model..GFS is best American model..it's NOAA's model

CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre, which hosts the CMC weather model. This weather model is on average slightly less accurate than the GFS and ECMWF weather models, and does well in patterns with a lot of blocking or amplification, and tends to do much worse with amplified patterns. It is run twice a day, and comes out around midnight and noon. 0z run can be viewed here and the 12z run can be viewed here.
Click to expand...

Hopefully that bullseye stays right over knoxville leading up to this next system.
 
#8,771
#8,771
VolnJC said:
It's OK but not as good as the European model..GFS is best American model..it's NOAA's model

CMC- Canadian Meteorological Centre, which hosts the CMC weather model. This weather model is on average slightly less accurate than the GFS and ECMWF weather models, and does well in patterns with a lot of blocking or amplification, and tends to do much worse with amplified patterns. It is run twice a day, and comes out around midnight and noon. 0z run can be viewed here and the 12z run can be viewed here.
Click to expand...

GFS is the best medium to long range American model, that I agree with. It's not the only model NOAA uses. They use the Euro, UKMet, GEM (Canadian), and the various short range models.
 
#8,773
#8,773
Vol knight said:
GFS is the best medium to long range American model, that I agree with. It's not the only model NOAA uses. They use the Euro, UKMet, GEM (Canadian), and the various short range models.
Click to expand...

When I said it's NOAA's model, I meant that they run it..I think they use the top six for hurricane tracking

A summary of the top six models:

ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that starting producing very accurate hurricanes forecasts.

GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS. Excellent graphics are available on the web from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Wunderground.com also has GFS plots. I like the Tropical Atlantic imagery. If you select "Shear" from the "level" menu, then click on "Add a Map", you'll get plots of the wind shear that I talk so much about.

GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Wunderground.com makes these graphics available on Wundermap. More detailed GFDL graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "GHM" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Detailed HWRF graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "HWRF" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

NOGAPS: The U.S. Navy's Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System. Graphics are available at the Navy web site. This model has been performing poorly in recent years compared to the other global models, so it has been removed from the consensus models that the National hurricane Center uses as of 2011.
 
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