East Tennessee Weather

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#9,026
#9,026
David Aldrich has come out with his early call for snow accumulations Sunday evening into Monday. These are the amounts before it changes to all rain. He also said this in the comments:

Make no mistake. This is not a snow storm, and this is not a rain event. This is BOTH a SNOW STORM and a RAIN EVENT with flooding concerns.
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#9,029
#9,029
TWC's current prediction for snowfall amounts has the bottom number higher than Aldrich's. That should have you excited.

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#9,034
#9,034
Coug said:
You're still holding on to a grudge you had from 6th grade man, let it go. Even Aldrich gets it wrong.
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In all seriousness, they are pretty good when their forecast is fairly close to other weather sources. It's when they go out on a limb and forecast something that is much different from other outlets is when they struggle.
 
#9,036
#9,036
Here's the 12z RGEM (short range model) run. It only goes out to 48 hours, so this is through Monday morning, and it's still snowing in East TN at that time.

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#9,042
#9,042
865dude said:
Sounds like confidence is growing
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Should be an awesome snow to see but remember almost every model and forecast has this turning to rain before or at noon Monday so it will be nice to see and should cancel work for many but it won't be here long
 
#9,043
#9,043
As promised, here's my "Where I'm leaning towards" forecast. This is Not my final forecast, so I may make changes before I put that out.

Southern Valley southwest of Knox County: I'm leaning towards a dusting to 2 inches. The more North you are, the higher the amounts (unless you're in a higher elevation area such as Signal Mountain).

Central Valley: Leaning towards 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible (especially in the ridges of North Knoxville).

Northern Valley, Plateau, and Mountains: Leaning towards 4-8 inches, with higher amounts in the higher elevations.

Bonuses:

1. I think there will be a Winter Storm Warning issued for Knox County and areas North and East (and Plateau). I'm thinking Winter Weather Advisory for the Southern Valley.

2. Confidence is growing in a Start of all snow, then transitioning to a icy mix, then rain from southwest to northeast.
 
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#9,044
#9,044
Vol knight said:
As promised, here's my "Where I'm leaning towards" forecast. This is Not my final forecast, so I may make changes before I put that out.

Southern Valley southwest of Knox County: I'm leaning towards a dusting to 2 inches. The more North you are, the higher the amounts (unless you're in a higher elevation area such as Signal Mountain).

Central Valley: Leaning towards 3-6 inches, with locally higher amounts possible (especially in the ridges of North Knoxville).

Northern Valley, Plateau, and Mountains: Leaning towards 4-8 inches, with higher amounts in the higher elevations.
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When do you think it changes to rain?
 
#9,045
#9,045
VolnJC said:
When do you think it changes to rain?
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Timing is still an uncertainty, but I'd guess at this time that the southern valley will transition in the morning, Central Valley in the late morning/midday timeframe, Northern areas in the afternoon.
 
#9,046
#9,046
I'll throw this out there:

Morristown is hinting at this as a possibility, but if sleet mixes in with the snow early, then snow totals could be lowered area wide. At this time, I don't think it will happen, but I can't rule it out.

Also, parts of the western valley and plateau could see some freezing rain Monday morning with some ice accretion up to .15 of an inch.
 
#9,048
#9,048
Vol knight said:
Timing is still an uncertainty, but I'd guess at this time that the southern valley will transition in the morning, Central Valley in the late morning/midday timeframe, Northern areas in the afternoon.
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Is there a possibility it stays all frozen for the duration for northern areas/plateau?
 
#9,049
#9,049
yoyoyoyo said:
Is there a possibility it stays all frozen for the duration for northern areas/plateau?
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I think everyone gets rain eventually..some of the new models have the low tracking up through the west side of the mountains..if that happens when may see very little snow
 
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