East Tennessee Weather

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#9,051
#9,051
Right now, there are 2 model camps:

GFS/RGEM/GEM (for now): Good for snow before rain.

Euro/NAM: Good for a little snow, good amount of ice in some areas, then rain.
 
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#9,052
#9,052
How do you think it effects us here in the Harlan and Bell county Kentucky area. So far they have underestimated every snowfall we have had this winter.
 
#9,055
#9,055
Will one of you weather gurus explain how they get a feels like 28 when the temp is 22 with a wind speed between 10-15 mph? See below...
 
#9,056
#9,056
malinoisvol said:
Will one of you weather gurus explain how they get a feels like 28 when the temp is 22 with a wind speed between 10-15 mph? See below...
Click to expand...

Mobile apps.....enough said, lol.

All jokes aside, weather apps on phones aren't usually that great. They typically only have one weather model that is used for their forecast. As you know, using one model isn't a great way to get forecasts beyond a couple days.
 
#9,057
#9,057
I'm starting to doubt we see these big accumulations early..TWC calling for less than an inch and NWS saying same for me




Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.


Washington's Birthday

Snow and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 40. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
 
#9,058
#9,058
Vol knight said:
Mobile apps.....enough said, lol.

All jokes aside, weather apps on phones aren't usually that great. They typically only have one weather model that is used for their forecast. As you know, using one model isn't a great way to get forecasts beyond a couple days.
Click to expand...

Thanks, VK. I just wanted to make sure
there wasn't a new weather phenomenon I hadn't heard of. Lol
 
#9,059
#9,059
advisories up for middle TN

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTH HALF OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHICH INCLUDES THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND...

.COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL SPREAD A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

TNZ005>011-023>034-064>066-140300-
/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0006.160214T1800Z-160215T1200Z/
STEWART-MONTGOMERY-ROBERTSON-SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-HOUSTON-
HUMPHREYS-DICKSON-CHEATHAM-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-
JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DOVER...CLARKSVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...ERIN...WAVERLY...
DICKSON...ASHLAND CITY...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...
HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...
JAMESTOWN...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE
1133 AM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN
...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* TIMING...NOON SUNDAY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY.

* MAIN IMPACT...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ADVISORY
AREA DUE TO A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

*ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 3 INCHES IN THE
UPPER CUMBERLAND.
 
#9,060
#9,060
VolnJC said:
I'm starting to doubt we see these big accumulations early..TWC calling for less than an inch and NWS saying same for me




Sunday Night

Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible.


Washington's Birthday

Snow and sleet before 10am, then rain and snow between 10am and noon, then rain after noon. High near 40. East wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Click to expand...

If it makes you feel better about this, JC, the NWS had 1-2 inches of snow for the Central Valley this morning, but they just now bumped it up to 2-3 inches.

I'm waiting until tonight's model runs to come out with my final forecast. I'll post it around 1:30 am.
 
#9,062
#9,062
Winter Storm Watch issued for the Northern Valley, Northeast TN, and the Mountains.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...NORTHERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE
BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING AROUND MIDDAY
SUNDAY...WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND RAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...SNOW-COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS
HAZARDOUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.
Click to expand...
 
#9,063
#9,063
In my opinion, it will come down to tonight's model runs in regards to whether the Central Valley sees a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory with the Southern Valley.
 
#9,065
#9,065
18z GFS run. Rest in peace, Northwest Anderson.

gfs_asnow_seus_11.png
 
#9,066
#9,066
Those of you actively hoping for a major winter storm should be sent to the Mt. Washington Observatory. They just posted on FB a temp reading of -31F.

That said, I'd like to go there, too.
 
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