East Tennessee Weather

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#9,103
#9,103
strange CMC-GEM map..hops and skips the plateau nails upper ET
gem_asnow_us_8.png
 
#9,106
#9,106
WVLT saying 2-4 inches now..thought they had forecasted 1-2 earlier
LOCAL 8 WEATHER ALERT Is in effect Sunday for snow showers that will arrive in the afternoon hours across the area. These snow showers will last through Monday morning with 2 to 4" of accumulation. Snow will change to rain mid Monday morning.
 
#9,108
#9,108
VolnJC said:
WVLT saying 2-4 inches now..thought they had forecasted 1-2 earlier
LOCAL 8 WEATHER ALERT Is in effect Sunday for snow showers that will arrive in the afternoon hours across the area. These snow showers will last through Monday morning with 2 to 4" of accumulation. Snow will change to rain mid Monday morning.
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Man, what is Kyle doing? He literally says on the 11:00 PM news 1-2 inches, then shows a single model run showing 5.6 inches for Knoxville, then puts 2-4 inches on WVLT's website.
 
#9,111
#9,111
~Final Forecast~

Before I begin with the amounts, I must say that this has been one of the hardest systems to forecast. It's so difficult that I'm only 75% confident in my forecast. There's some factors, big and small, that could lead to a major winter storm or a low amount of snow and much more rain. With that being said, here are the amounts:

Southern valley (Areas southwest of Knox County): Dusting to 2 inches. Like I said yesterday, the more North you are, the higher the amounts (with the exception of higher elevations)

Central Valley (Areas in and around Knox County): 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible (especially on ridges in North Knoxville)

Northern Valley and Plateau: 4-8 inches, with locally higher amounts possible.

Northeast TN and the Mountains: 6-10 inches, with higher amounts in the higher elevations.


Bonuses:

1. If the colder air lingers longer than expected, then snow amounts will increase. If sleet/freezing rain/rain starts mixing in with the snow earlier than expected, then snow amounts will decrease.

2. There's a small chance for some good amounts of Freezing Rain in the Plateau, with ice accretion up to .15 of an inch in some areas.

3. Localized flooding is possible due to the large amount of rain and snowmelt.

4. Be careful if you plan to travel Sunday night and Monday morning. It's going to be a mess.
 
#9,112
#9,112
As far as whether the NWS will issue a warning or an advisory for the central valley, I could see it going either way. It's so close to call. However, I do have high confidence that sometime tomorrow, there will be a Winter Weather Advisory for the Southern Valley.
 
#9,113
#9,113
Vol knight said:
In all seriousness, they are pretty good when their forecast is fairly close to other weather sources. It's when they go out on a limb and forecast something that is much different from other outlets is when they struggle.
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TWC is fairly accurate but I'll admit on tv they get overly dramatic when it comes to hurricanes, tornadoes, and winter storms. I blame most of that on it being TV and them trying to keep viewers. I mostly view their website and it's radar.

malinoisvol said:
Will one of you weather gurus explain how they get a feels like 28 when the temp is 22 with a wind speed between 10-15 mph? See below...
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Wow, that's a fairly egregious error. I'd try 1Weather app, I've been using it for a couple years and have never seen an error like that. Their radar feature is also nice.

VolnJC said:
I think Carson-Newman has cancelled classes 4 times this year and Walters State has probably closed at least that many times..but yeah I think UT has only cancelled once
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CN is farther north and east than Knoxville. So they often get a little more snow than we do. The last storm that hit Tuesday to Wednesday was mostly a bust in Knoxville but they got a couple inches at least I think. UT is just crazy and don't cancel classes for anything.

Does JC stand for Johnson City or Jeff City?
 
#9,114
#9,114
Small update:

Since this is the day when the system hits our area, I will no longer be posting the GFS, GGEM, or Euro for the duration of this system. Instead, I'll be posting short range models such as the RGEM and the HRRR.
 
#9,115
#9,115
Vol knight said:
Small update:

Since this is the day when the system hits our area, I will no longer be posting the GFS, GGEM, or Euro for the duration of this system. Instead, I'll be posting short range models such as the RGEM and the HRRR.
Click to expand...

What about the ARRR for the pirate model?
 
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#9,117
#9,117
Winter Weather Advisory for the Central Valley. Nothing yet for the Southern Valley.

NORTHWEST COCKE-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
NORTH SEVIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...
KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...SEVIERVILLE
508 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 AM EST MONDAY.

* EVENT...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...A FEW AREAS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN
WITH ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON TODAY...WITH A MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...RAIN AND POSSIBLY
FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL RAIN.

* IMPACTS...SNOW AND ICE WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS.
Click to expand...
 
#9,118
#9,118
Wbir posted on Twitter they think the snow is going to be further north. Day of the storm and still none of the local channels know what's going on. This will probably be another swing and miss
 
#9,119
#9,119
What I find interesting is even the Smoky Mountains are under a Winter Weather Advisory. The warnings are in the mountains Northeast of the GSMNP. You don't see that very often.
 
#9,120
#9,120
According to the hourly on Intellicast, everything will be changing over to rain somewhere between 3-6am tomorrow morning, and be all rain the rest of the time. So I hope people understand the accumulation factor will be well before work time Monday morning, and everything on the roads will likely be gone with the rain and salting of the roads.
 
#9,121
#9,121
g8terh8ter_eric said:
According to the hourly on Intellicast, everything will be changing over to rain somewhere between 3-6am tomorrow morning, and be all rain the rest of the time. So I hope people understand the accumulation factor will be well before work time Monday morning, and everything on the roads will likely be gone with the rain and salting of the roads.
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I've never even heard of intellicast, so I won't even make a comment on whether they are good or not, lol.
 
#9,123
#9,123
govols1864 said:
Looking ahead this could be the last chance for a good snow. Could see 70 by end of the week.
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Like I said yesterday, while there will be a warm up next weekend, it's not the end of winter. Last week of February into Early March will see a return of cold air and possibly snow.
 
#9,124
#9,124
Wbir has some freezing rain around 4 am, then just rain the rest of the time. Lol so much for 2-5 inches from less than 24 hours ago
 
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