East Tennessee Weather

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#9,351
#9,351
I'm hearing a report that huge flakes were mixing in with the rain. It probably won't accumulate, but it's still interesting if it's true.
 
#9,354
#9,354
Vol knight said:
They warned folks that there was a lot of uncertainty with the system. Hell, you can look back at my final forecast and even I said that I wouldn't be surprised if I was wrong due to the different factors. This system was so complex that meteorologists should get a pass for not getting it completely right. It was so difficult to forecast that the meteorologists had to throw out the models and start nowcasting during the storm.
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Yea not sure you can blame the weather guys, they are reading models to make a forecast. The model can say one thing and the weather can do another.

I think it's just the luck of the valley.
1. We get good cold but the gulf air pushes it out as the precip comes in. 2. The cold comes in behind the precip. 3. Just that valley effect of being surrounded by mountains.

Im sure there is more and it's alot more complex but you get my point.
 
#9,355
#9,355
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Yea not sure you can blame the weather guys, they are reading models to make a forecast. The model can say one thing and the weather can do another.

I think it's just the luck of the valley.
1. We get good cold but the gulf air pushes it out as the precip comes in. 2. The cold comes in behind the precip. 3. Just that valley effect of being surrounded by mountains.

Im sure there is more and it's alot more complex but you get my point.
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I know I'm no meteorologist, but from what I've learned, I've seen that storm track, timing, the direction of the wind, and other systems have more impact on the weather than simply being in the valley.
 
#9,356
#9,356
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Yea not sure you can blame the weather guys, they are reading models to make a forecast. The model can say one thing and the weather can do another.

I think it's just the luck of the valley.
1. We get good cold but the gulf air pushes it out as the precip comes in. 2. The cold comes in behind the precip. 3. Just that valley effect of being surrounded by mountains.

Im sure there is more and it's alot more complex but you get my point.
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I also think we could probably revamp some of the weather models too
 
#9,359
#9,359
VolnJC said:
I also think we could probably revamp some of the weather models too
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Just playing devil's advocate here, but how is a model supposed to be able to tell if a LP will split in 2 right before it hits the Appalachians like it did Monday morning? A low splitting is not a common occurrence.
 
#9,360
#9,360
Vol knight said:
I said it a few days ago, but the GFS is going to be replaced by the GFS Parallel model this spring.
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Yeah I read an article that the American models have fallen behind the European models and many of our satellites are failing too
 
#9,361
#9,361
VolnJC said:
Yeah I read an article that the American models have fallen behind the European models and many of our satellites are failing too
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Idk how much time you've spent in TOS, but the biggeest thing I notice over there is that they put a lot more stock in the Euro model and it's Ensembles than they do with the GFS. Do they still use the GFS? Yes. However, they call the Euro model the king model.
 
#9,362
#9,362
Vol knight said:
Idk how much time you've spent in TOS, but the biggeest thing I notice over there is that they put a lot more stock in the Euro model and it's Ensembles than they do with the GFS. Do they still use the GFS? Yes. However, they call the Euro model the king model.
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I like it too...but I think it is only available by subscription..I'll probably do that next season
 
#9,363
#9,363
Vol knight said:
I know I'm no meteorologist, but from what I've learned, I've seen that storm track, timing, the direction of the wind, and other systems have more impact on the weather than simply being in the valley.
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Yea my 1 and 2 is basically bad luck timing and then 3 is the mountains shredding precip coming at us. Thats 3 basic reasons im sure there are alot more complex ones.

Aldrich posted Lafollette has had 30 to 40 inches and knoxville 5.1 this season. They are 50 miles away from us and about 200 more feet elevation.
 
#9,368
#9,368
Vol knight said:
Idk how much time you've spent in TOS, but the biggeest thing I notice over there is that they put a lot more stock in the Euro model and it's Ensembles than they do with the GFS. Do they still use the GFS? Yes. However, they call the Euro model the king model.
Click to expand...

What's TOS? I have been on a forum called Talk Weather. Not signed up just reading alot.
 
#9,369
#9,369
For those who are curious, I'd like to describe the type of system that often produces most of our significant snowfall in East TN. The system is called a Miller A type. It's a LP that starts in the Gulf of Mexico, and then goes up the east coast, then turns east to sea once it reaches the southern new england states. When we get Miller As, we can get hit hard with snow. Below is a graphic of a Miller A.

An example of a very strong Miller A storm is the Blizzard of 93.

post-128-0-63137700-1290799635.jpg
 
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#9,370
#9,370
Here's the 0z GFS run at hour 150. I'm posting this run, because I want to point out something with it. Do you notice the LP in Louisiana? That's a really good placement for us to see a lot of snow in East TN. If you go through the rest of the run through this system, you'll notice that we only get a few inches. Why is that? To answer the question, look at the great lakes region. You'll notice that there's a LP system there as well. What that system does is it disrupts the transport of cold air to the south, and we don't see the colder air until it's almost gone. Without that LP in the Great Lakes, we get potentially over 15 inches in the entire Valley, with some areas getting higher amounts. That LP up north has been a big reason why we have not had a significant snowstorm in the valley this winter.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png
 
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