East Tennessee Weather

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#9,377
#9,377
Vol knight said:
Here's the 0z GFS run at hour 150. I'm posting this run, because I want to point out something with it. Do you notice the LP in Louisiana? That's a really good placement for us to see a lot of snow in East TN. If you go through the rest of the run through this system, you'll notice that we only get a few inches. Why is that? To answer the question, look at the great lakes region. You'll notice that there's a LP system there as well. What that system does is it disrupts the transport of cold air to the south, and we don't see the colder air until it's almost gone. Without that LP in the Great Lakes, we get potentially over 15 inches in the entire Valley, with some areas getting higher amounts. That LP up north has been a big reason why we have not had a significant snowstorm in the valley this winter.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_25.png
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The good news is the Euro isn't showing the LP in the great lakes next week.
 
#9,384
#9,384
RockyTop411 said:
Did the rain wash up all of your snow mule
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there is still some snow in my yard lol it should be gone tomorrow


is this the blizzard that hit the Tri Citys,it was some where around 93, if it is the one I'm thinking about

that is the one we were standing out in the deep snow,saying there is no lightning storm during a heavy snow fall


it was transformers blowing everywhere,there was the sound of thunder and what looked like a lightning storm from the flashes

it took almost a week to get power back
 
#9,386
#9,386
I'm blaming it on snow right now chatt actually the mud started back in October and hasn't let up any in my shaded hollar any, so far,at least in the Spring i get Sunny days to off set the rain
 
#9,389
#9,389
Something to note:

The reason why I'm not talking about this upcoming system 6 days out is because of a flaw that models tend to have on this time period. This isn't always the case, but between days 5 and 7, the models will "lose" the storm and have the system go on a completely different track. Sometimes, that is in mistake and it corrects itself. Other times, it's not.

For example, in the past few days, the Euro and GFS had a system with a favorable track for a winter storm in East Tennessee (Granted, the GFS was showing less amounts than the Euro). Last night and this morning, the tracks of the system have changed a lot and now support little to no snow. Still a long way to go, but I'll continue to watch the models and see if it changes.
 
#9,390
#9,390
If you want to see something interesting, take a look at the 12z GFS run. Go to the late February to early March period. It looks like the apocalypse hits the Southeast.
 
#9,391
#9,391
Vol knight said:
Something to note:

The reason why I'm not talking about this upcoming system 6 days out is because of a flaw that models tend to have on this time period. This isn't always the case, but between days 5 and 7, the models will "lose" the storm and have the system go on a completely different track. Sometimes, that is in mistake and it corrects itself. Other times, it's not.

For example, in the past few days, the Euro and GFS had a system with a favorable track for a winter storm in East Tennessee (Granted, the GFS was showing less amounts than the Euro). Last night and this morning, the tracks of the system have changed a lot and now support little to no snow. Still a long way to go, but I'll continue to watch the models and see if it changes.
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VK, the GFS is still showing the blocker up in the Great lakes. More drenching cold rains at this point unless it changes.
 
#9,392
#9,392
Orange_Vol1321 said:
VK, the GFS is still showing the blocker up in the Great lakes. More drenching cold rains at this point unless it changes.
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The good thing though is that the 12z GFS, Euro, and CMC show a favorable track. That's all we can ask for 6 days from the system.

I'll start posting model runs tomorrow.
 
#9,393
#9,393
Vol knight said:
The good thing though is that the 12z GFS, Euro, and CMC show a favorable track. That's all we can ask for 6 days from the system.

I'll start posting model runs tomorrow.
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Thats some good news. Some was showing it slide out on the coast and up the last time I looked.

The blocker showing up on the Euro now also?
 
#9,398
#9,398
Vol knight said:
Yeah. It was showing some insane Snow amounts in the South.
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Yea showing it start icing at 1am on Monday morning here and then turning to snow and snowing through Friday.

1030 HP above and a 1032 HP in behind the storm. It's a massive storm, never seen one stay on a model for a week like that even if its 10 days away.
 
#9,400
#9,400
I bet if we have any significant snow, it will be towards the end of March or first week of April. The weather patterns this year are very similar to when we had the blizzard of 93. And East TN tends to get a blizzard every 20 to 30 years. It's cyclical.
 
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