Give me your wins

[Special Ed]

Friends, Romans, countrymen - lend me your rears.
I mean lend me your ears!:redface:













Apologies to William Shakespeare.

 

[bleedorange0037]

We had a legitamate shot at winning the UGA and Scar games last year. Why is it such a stretch to think we could win one with improved coaching and (hopefully) defense?

Because we lost every meaningful skill player on the offense?

 

[Coug]

Because we lost every meaningful skill player on the offense?

I have to disagree as beer bottle throwing isn't a skill.

 

[99gator]

austin peay
western kentucky
south alabama
kentucky

wins that could be losses

vanderbilt
missouri

losses that could be wins

auburn

losses

georgia
south carolina
florida
oregon
alabama

 

[golf437]

Its amazing to me that people think its impossible.....not a dig at you but we arent as far in the gutter as people think

No we are not but we are not as good as you and others think. It will take a little time now that we have a much better staff.

 

[bleedorange0037]

I have to disagree as beer bottle throwing isn't a skill.

Whatever dude. The QB play this coming season is going to make a lot of people miss Bray. Even with all his shortcomings, he's worlds better than anybody who'll see the field this fall.

 

[bleedorange0037]

austin peay
western kentucky
south alabama
kentucky

wins that could be losses

vanderbilt
missouri

losses that could be wins

auburn

losses

georgia
south carolina
florida
oregon
alabama

Pretty fair assessment, but I'd be inclined to think Vandy belongs more in the same column with Auburn. They may fall off a little this year, but they also beat us by 20+ points last season, and we've lost all our offensive weapons. I think that one's a loss too and we're looking at another 5-7 year.

 

[Coug]

Whatever dude. The QB play this coming season is going to make a lot of people miss Bray. Even with all his shortcomings, he's worlds better than anybody who'll see the field this fall.

Best freshman QB's Ever
Terrelle Pryor
Robert Griffin III
Danny Wuerffel
Kellen Moore
Colt McCoy
Pat White
Tommie Frazier
Sam Bradford
Michael Vick
Jamelle Holieway

Sorry to burst your bubble but good freshman QB's are possible.

 

[Burger]

Best freshman QB's Ever
Terrelle Pryor
Robert Griffin III
Danny Wuerffel
Kellen Moore
Colt McCoy
Pat White
Tommie Frazier
Sam Bradford
Michael Vick
Jamelle Holieway

Sorry to burst your bubble but good freshman QB's are possible.

Only one of them played in the SEC. None of those guys played a hard schedule as ours.

 

[92volalum]

Wins (7): Austin Peay by 35, Western Ky. by 28, South Alabama by 24, Missouri by 10, Auburn by 14, Vandy by 10, Kentucky by 21.

Most logical IMO but u could say SC instead of auburn but one of those two. Btw I don't agree on points.

If cbj can't beat these 7 in his first year I question if he can win a championship. We do not have time to get his players to fit his system tn needs to win n win now no rebuilding... the fans will not last another 3 years with 6 n 6 or 7 N 5 seasons with the promise of 9 or 10 n 3 Years.. cdd sold that BS n most fans drank the koolaid....lol

We will be wiser this time around!!!?

 

[92volalum]

No one listens to what I am about to say. I say it so much that it actually bores me, so I can only imagine what you guys feel reading it.

Bottom line: Simply averaging recruiting talent classes over four years and ranking them based on this average can predict the outcome over a season for a team between 60-70% of the time.

For BCS title games this method predicts the outcome about 87% of the time since 2005. 2005 isn't an arbitrary number, it is the first year that one can produce data for a four year average starting at 2002, which is as far back as I can get rivals data. The only year that it didn't predict the outcome was 2005. Texas should have lost to USC.

Using this formula and only predicting based on talent, UT goes 7-5 (possibly 8-4 as there is a game on the schedule against a team with an identical 4 year recruiting average as UT, so it is a wash if I stick to my system).

What is even more interesting is what accounts for the other 30-40% of the teams who fall more than 1 game above (or below) their predicted outcome. You begin to find coaches like Petrino, Spurrier, Kiff, Dooley and Jones. Yes, our Butch Jones.

What I mean is that Petrino, Spurrier and Jones have a definite history of getting more out of their talent than other coaches. Dooley and Kiff are both under performers at a rate of several games a year.

In fact, if you look at Jones' history at Cincy, you find that he over performed every year besides his first year. Jones over performed by an average of about 3 games a year. His first year, where he only won 4 games, was exactly what his recruiting average would have predicted. He did that by beating two teams he should not have beaten, and losing to two teams he should not have lost to.

I don't expect to see Jones over perform his first year, but I do expect he meets the 7-5 mark.

Very interesting but its exactly why recruiting matters so much regardless of the people that say stars don't matter... u recruit top 5 talent n your record will reflect more wins than losses.... good post

 

[HuntlandVolinColo]

If Trent Dilfer can have a superbowl ring, then why can't our team win some tough games with green horn qbs and a polished O-line?

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

If Trent Dilfer can have a superbowl ring, then why can't our team win some tough games with green horn qbs and a polished O-line?

He also had an effing righteous defense that year to help him out.

Not to say that ours can't bounce back and be solid, but Dilfer didn't have to carry that team.

 

[bleedorange0037]

If Trent Dilfer can have a superbowl ring, then why can't our team win some tough games with green horn qbs and a polished O-line?

Because he had a world class defense. In case you missed it, we return almost all of last years defense. While they are proven, the thing that they've proven is that they are awful.

 

[Vol logic]

Because he had a world class defense. In case you missed it, we return almost all of last years defense. While they are proven, the thing that they've proven is that they are awful.

You obviously weren't around in 1998. Skill positions aside from qb are the easiest place for freshman to contribute. Oh, we don't have a freshman at qb. Your argument is porous.

 

[99gator]

You obviously weren't around in 1998. Skill positions aside from qb are the easiest place for freshman to contribute. Oh, we don't have a freshman at qb. Your argument is porous.

you know, after watching tennessee the last few years, the 2013 vols compare very favorably to the 1998 vols.

 

[Burger]

You obviously weren't around in 1998. Skill positions aside from qb are the easiest place for freshman to contribute. Oh, we don't have a freshman at qb. Your argument is porous.

We have a giant question mark at most positions. We could have a freshman QB this year also. Remember we are low on talent.

 

[bleedorange0037]

You obviously weren't around in 1998. Skill positions aside from qb are the easiest place for freshman to contribute. Oh, we don't have a freshman at qb. Your argument is porous.

When did I ever say we had a freshman at QB? For all I know, Worley will be the QB this coming year, and he was terrible even when he had NFL caliber WR's to throw to. He won't have anything close to that this year.

 

[bleedorange0037]

You obviously weren't around in 1998. Skill positions aside from qb are the easiest place for freshman to contribute. Oh, we don't have a freshman at qb. Your argument is porous.

Again, 1998 was one of the best defenses UT ever fielded. This years defense is comprised of basically the same guys who gave up nearly 50 points to Troy.

 

[sanddune50]

Wins (7): Austin Peay by 35, Western Ky. by 28, South Alabama by 24, Missouri by 10, Auburn by 14, Vandy by 10, Kentucky by 21.

This would be my 7(Don't know about the margin of victories). And I'm still predicting 8 with a split between South Carolina and UGA. We played UGA tough in Athens and Richt is Fulmer lite. South Carolina lost a lot on defense and think with any sort of defense last year we would have beat them by a couple of scores. Switching back to the 4-3 automatically make us better on D.

 

[smokey0625]

I thought it was a stick up when I read the thread title. I was like, all I've got is a bunch of Dooley excuses on me but if I had some wins I'd let you have them.

 

[volsohard16]

For those of you predicting 7-5 or better, give me you wins and if you could do me a solid, also give me your reasons why we win those 7 or more.

secretly hates tennessee

 

[daj2576]

Actually, quite a few people listen to what you have to say because it tends toward the more objective.

I'm curious what you thought UT would do in 2012 before the season started. There was a team with a LOT of talent so I would imagine most people thought we'd win at least 8 games. Of course, the coaching issue enters the picture and if we'd had had Wilcox instead of Sunseri, it would have been a different story.

Anyway, I remember UF was supposed to be horrible again last year but their offseason workouts made the difference (Muschamp really challenged them). I see CBJ doing the same with this team and what I've read that the players have been doing on their own is really encouraging.

If memory serves, Dooley had the talent and schedule to go 9-3 last year. He averaged a -3 game impact on his teams going back to LA Tech.

To subjectively view this objective evaluation, consider this: The talent we had last year, even grossly underutilized, almost overcame a lack of coaching to play UF, UGA, and SCAR close. It isn't a stretch to think 2/3 of these were very winnable. Imagine a coach who didn't handcuff our talent and you can see that both Mizzou and its extension to the Vandy loss, would have been avoided.

To zoom out: If you look back to about 2005 two teams in the SEC have been chronic underachievers in relationship to their talent. Both UT and Florida over that time have been much more likely to lose games they should win then vice versa. Florida's record just reflects a substantial recruiting advantage over the majority of the SEC.

 

[dcm3w]

My predictions* based on UT being healthy. I know we can do better than what people expect and this is why. I believe our defense will come with a chip on their shoulder to prove that last year was a fluke while we lack top notch speed we have experience and some quality players with some young players eager to be a force to reckon with. Our OL being as dominate as they tend to be and with Neal and Lane with a dash of Hill to keep things rolling (really hoping one of them has a break out year). Our QB (whoever it may be) will be consistent and not choke. The WR's have loads of talent as long as they can be consistent to compliment their ability. The biggest question is hitting our stride. We have lacked that certain playmaker in past years except for Patterson but we have the talent to be an 8-4 team.

AP: win (if we lose this, I will give up faith for the season)

Western Kentucky: win but WKU will be tougher than people think but should be a no brainer.

Oregon: 60-40% UT losing. If we have two successful games and a healthy squad, I think we can pull an upset. It will be hard because we all know they have talent and speed but they are in a coaching transition and if our defense can keep up with them, it should be a good game.

Florida 60-40% UT losing. This being it is in Gainesville. But we can pull an upset here also. Depends if we can contain Driskell because he tore us up in the second half last year but they don't have Gillislee in the back field. Their defense should be good but not dominate. If we can pass the ball well in this game we can take it away.

South Alabama- win

Georgia- 50/50 They will have a very good O. Returning ten starters which includes Murray and Gurley. The key to this game is stopping that offense and taking advantage of their young but talented D. They only return 3 starters on D and last year they allowed 182 rushing yards per game, in essence our O line and backfield should capitalize. Advantage: Knoxville.

South Carolina- Win but it will not be easy. The Gamecocks get Shaw and Thompson back. We hung in there with them last year but Shaw had a tremendous day. Shaw isn't that great of a passer but a real threat on the run and of course last year, we couldn't handle either but HOPEFULLY with our defense improved we can capitalize on their inexperience D. Now, of course there is Clowney, who should be in a separate sentence from defense. If we can stop him from being so disruptive we can hopefully put enough points on the board to take it away. Plus, it's in Knoxville.

Alabama- Loss. 80-20% UT wins. McCarron comes back, Yeldon, Cooper, etc. Defense is loaded with talent. To take this one home we'd have to be on our A game, on a roll, and not be sloppy on either side of the ball or catch Bama and Satan on a bad night. But I have faith, I grew up with the rivalry and I despise every single fan and A on the back of a car (even all the way in Nashville you will see A's).

Missouri- 60-40% UT wins. However, they could pull up an upset. I think it will be a close game but I believe we pull this out.

Auburn- 50/50. Auburn will play us hard. After both programs had a terrible season last year and new coaching staffs this will be interesting. They have the talent to win. Their offense doesn't look as scary as it has been in the pass. Their rushing game is pretty good but they don't have a proven quarterback. Their defense is returning 8 but they were last in the league in rushing yards that hopefully we will take advantage of this year. It's a toss up. I think it might go into OT but again it's in Knoxville.

Vandy-win. Need I say more. Probably the one game that UT players/fans want more. Don't put them down yet, Vandy will play us hard to prove that last season wasn't just a lucky year, it will be for bragging rights but they will have to do it without their starting QB and RB. Should be interesting in Knoxville.

Kentucky- Win

I'm predicting 7-5. At best 9-3 but more than likely 8-4. HOPEFULLY the worst 6-6.













*may subject to change

 

[99gator]

To zoom out: If you look back to about 2005 two teams in the SEC have been chronic underachievers in relationship to their talent. Both UT and Florida over that time have been much more likely to lose games they should win then vice versa. Florida's record just reflects a substantial recruiting advantage over the majority of the SEC.

florida is the 4th winningest program in the country since 2005 with two national titles and 4 bcs bowl appearances.

#1 and #3 were not in bcs conferences.

to put florida and underachieve in the same sentence is laughable.

to lump florida in with tennessee is delusional.