Give me your wins

[daj2576]

florida is the 4th winningest program in the country since 2005 with two national titles and 4 bcs bowl appearances.

#1 and #3 were not in bcs conferences.

to put florida and underachieve in the same sentence is laughable.

to lump florida in with tennessee is delusional.

I expected this sort of response, sadly.

Don't make a terrible mistake of assuming success means that UF is satisfying potential. As I clearly stated, UFs subjective success is a testiment to their severe recruiting advantage, not exceptional systematic decisions.

The numbers don't lie, but your eyes do. Just because you have won a lot of games doesn't mean that you can't be an underperformer on a giant scale.

A guy driving a Ferrari would win the Boston Marathon without ever having to press the accellerator. That doesn't mean that the fastest that cat can go is 30mph because he outran all of the other runners. Except in Florida's case, the Ferrari will regularly fail to win it all.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

I expected this sort of response, sadly.

Don't make a terrible mistake of assuming success means that UF is satisfying potential. As I clearly stated, UFs subjective success is a testiment to their severe recruiting advantage, not exceptional systematic decisions.

The numbers don't lie, but your eyes do. Just because you have won a lot of games doesn't mean that you can't be an underperformer on a giant scale.

A guy driving a Ferrari would win the Boston Marathon without ever having to press the accellerator. That doesn't mean that the fastest that cat can go is 30mph because he outran all of the other runners. Except in Florida's case, the Ferrari will regularly fail to win it all.

Here we go again... :no:

 

[99gator]

I expected this sort of response, sadly.

Don't make a terrible mistake of assuming success means that UF is satisfying potential. As I clearly stated, UFs subjective success is a testiment to their severe recruiting advantage, not exceptional systematic decisions.

The numbers don't lie, but your eyes do. Just because you have won a lot of games doesn't mean that you can't be an underperformer on a giant scale.

A guy driving a Ferrari would win the Boston Marathon without ever having to press the accellerator. That doesn't mean that the fastest that cat can go is 30mph because he outran all of the other runners. Except in Florida's case, the Ferrari will regularly fail to win it all.

Got it.

Unless Florida goes 14-0 every season and wins by an average of 50, they underachieved.

Winning more than damn near anyone else is embarrasing.

 

[daj2576]

florida is the 4th winningest program in the country since 2005 with two national titles and 4 bcs bowl appearances.

#1 and #3 were not in bcs conferences.

to put florida and underachieve in the same sentence is laughable.

to lump florida in with tennessee is delusional.

The evaluation, since 2008 isolates 4 SEC teams who trend as over or under performers based on talent predictions. Everyone else falls within 1 game or so of that prediction. The four are Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. The first two teams overperform, the second two underperform. That is inarguable from the data even if the records are wildly varied.

 

[daj2576]

Got it.

Unless Florida goes 14-0 every season and wins by an average of 50, they underachieved.

Winning more than damn near anyone else is embarrasing.

Margin of victory is never a factor.

Generally you are on the right path regardless of your sarcasm. In the SEC you should regularly beat everyone but Bama, who you don't play every year. Then once you consider the "strength" of your OOC schedule in regards to recruiting averages, the short answer is you should be no more than 2 games from being undefeated every year.

Florida has 2 distinct advantages: 1)recruiting honey-pot means you are assured to out recruit the vast majority of the SEC, 2)an OOC schedule that assures, at least talent wise, that you never play a more talented team.

 

[RichRollin]

AP- win 42-13
WKU- win 35-17
Oregon- loss 49-31
Florida- loss 35-24
South Alabama- win 49-10
Georgia- loss 30-27
USCjr- win 31-21
Bammer- loss 21-20
Mizzou- win 31-20
Auburn- win 28-24
Candy- win 35-10
UK- win 42-20

I say we win 8. Think it's gonna be similar to kiffin's first year in terms of hanging with most on our schedule. Get ready to surprise some folks this year!

"Think it's gonna be similar to kiffin's first year in terms of hanging with most on our schedule."

See this is exactly what I think. I think we knock someone off, and play good hard football against our rivals scaring another team or two. 7-6 Which includes the bowl game.

 

[UGA insider]

The evaluation, since 2008 isolates 4 SEC teams who trend as over or under performers based on talent predictions. Everyone else falls within 1 game or so of that prediction. The four are Arkansas, South Carolina, Tennessee and Florida. The first two teams overperform, the second two underperform. That is inarguable from the data even if the records are wildly varied.

How exactly do you come up with talent predictions?

Florida, as much as I hate to say it, has been outstanding in that stretch you are talking about. This data you speak of does not make sense. Their record is all you need to see.

 

[RichRollin]

florida is the 4th winningest program in the country since 2005 with two national titles and 4 bcs bowl appearances.

#1 and #3 were not in bcs conferences.

to put florida and underachieve in the same sentence is laughable.

to lump florida in with tennessee is delusional.

Tennessee is the WINNINGEST PROGRAM IN THE NATION SINCE 1926!

4th since 2005 <<< 1st since 1926

 

[Lawrence Wright]

How exactly do you come up with talent predictions?

Florida, as much as I hate to say it, has been outstanding in that stretch you are talking about. This data you speak of does not make sense. Their record is all you need to see.

Those predictions come straight out of his a$$.

We've already gone back and forth on the topic...unless UF runs off a couple national titles every 5-6 years, in his mind we're underachieving.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

Tennessee is the WINNINGEST PROGRAM IN THE NATION SINCE 1926!

4th since 2005 <<< 1st since 1926

Congratulations.

That must explain all the Vandy threads around here lately.

 

[99gator]

Margin of victory is never a factor.

Generally you are on the right path regardless of your sarcasm. In the SEC you should regularly beat everyone but Bama, who you don't play every year. Then once you consider the "strength" of your OOC schedule in regards to recruiting averages, the short answer is you should be no more than 2 games from being undefeated every year.

I am repeating myself from another thread, but you are holding Florida to an impossible standard.

 

[daj2576]

How exactly do you come up with talent predictions?

Florida, as much as I hate to say it, has been outstanding in that stretch you are talking about. This data you speak of does not make sense. Their record is all you need to see.

Don't take offense to my brevity as I'm on my phone. Bottom line, there have been threads dedicated to the development and proof of this evaluation. It is evident that people totally reject it because they choose to believe their eyes more than numbers. In a way, I agree. Football wouldn't be fun if everyone knew the outcome is largely predertimined based on simple recruiting and not all of the other things that ESPN and Volnation tend to discuss as determiners.

 

[RichRollin]

Congratulations.

That must explain all the Vandy threads around here lately.

Actually it just makes me feel good, LMAO. Nothing more, nothing less.

But if you really wanna be a dik about it....WTF does this thread have to do with you and your partners? Was the thread title Florida circle jerk? Because upon opening it that's exactly what I found.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

Don't take offense to my brevity as I'm on my phone. Bottom line, there have been threads dedicated to the development and proof of this evaluation. It is evident that people totally reject it because they choose to believe their eyes more than numbers. In a way, I agree. Football wouldn't be fun if everyone knew the outcome is largely predertimined based on simple recruiting and not all of the other things that ESPN and Volnation tend to discuss as determiners.

You got your teeth kicked in on that thread. lol:

 

[daj2576]

I am repeating myself from another thread, but you are holding Florida to an impossible standard.

I don't make these up.

I developed this system and publishing this data lead to a paid position doing far more detailed analysis of this very thing. I never reveal, ever, the results or trends from the analysis that I am paid to do but I can tell you that the proof I developed looks like it was drawn in crayon compared to the predictive ability of far more fine tuned evaluations that are even more closely correlated and far more stunning.

But, believe what you want.

Because I have leather bound books and my office smells of rich mohagony. Lol

 

[daj2576]

You got your teeth kicked in on that thread. lol:

I'm glad you enjoyed it.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

Actually it just makes me feel good, LMAO. Nothing more, nothing less.

But if you really wanna be a dik about it....WTF does this thread have to do with you and your partners? Was the thread title Florida circle jerk? Because upon opening it that's exactly what I found.

Never been called a dik before.

The ignore feature is your friend...use it.

 

[RichRollin]

Never been called a dik before.

The ignore feature is your friend...use it.

Nah, I like a lot of your posts. That one just rubbed me the wrong way.

 

[99gator]

I don't make these up.

I developed this system and publishing this data lead to a paid position doing far more detailed analysis of this very thing. I never reveal, ever, the results or trends from the analysis that I am paid to do but I can tell you that the proof I developed looks like it was drawn in crayon compared to the predictive ability of far more fine tuned evaluations that are even more closely correlated and far more stunning.

But, believe what you want.

I understand the system, but the numbers don't jive with reality.

How often has any team in college football lost 20 games or less during a 10 year period?

It is extremely rare and historic in nature.

So, for that to be the standard that any team gets held to, is not realistic to me.

 

[KnoxVegas]

If Trent Dilfer can have a superbowl ring, then why can't our team win some tough games with green horn qbs and a polished O-line?

2 of the last 4 BCS champs had first year starting QB's....just saying.

He also had an effing righteous defense that year to help him out.

Not to say that ours can't bounce back and be solid, but Dilfer didn't have to carry that team.

That defense helped him win the Super Bowl! We are talking about 7 wins against non top 25 teams.

The starting QB won't have to carry this team just like Dilfer didn't.

Based on talent alone UT should win 6 games and Auburn is a win IMO. Golden Nugget has UT an 8 point favorite against Auburn and a 1 point favorite against Vandy.

I understand the reluctance given the recent past... but how can part of a fan base say 7 wins isn't happening when UT is favored in 7 games this year....:crazy:???

 

[daj2576]

I understand the system, but the numbers don't jive with reality.

How often has any team in college football lost 20 games or less during a 10 year period?

It is extremely rare and historic in nature.

So, for that to be the standard that any team gets held to, is not realistic to me.

We are arguing past each other. I'm not, nor have I ever said that Florida's achievements aren't remarkable in context of the NCAA. What I have said is that when you wipe away vanity and pre conceived notions of what actually creates success on the field that Florida is under performing.

I mean are you really arguing that Florida shouldn't have beaten Louisville (as one example)? If no, why? The answer is talent disparity, right? Do that for every game since 2008 and you'll begin to see a pattern develop. That is reality.

I totally understand that this is a remarkable paradigm shift that threatens many traditional subjective football notions. I don't expect you to agree, you're human and that sort of perception shift is hard especially when a huge part of ego is connected to the conclusion that your team/ego are commendable for achievement. The reality is that it can be both:sleep soundly knowing that your team/ego will continue to click off wins for the forseeable future without being threatened by the reality that you could be much better.

 

[sanddune50]

2 of the last 4 BCS champs had first year starting QB's....just saying.



That defense helped him win the Super Bowl! We are talking about 7 wins against non top 25 teams.

The starting QB won't have to carry this team just like Dilfer didn't.

Based on talent alone UT should win 6 games and Auburn is a win IMO. Golden Nugget has UT an 8 point favorite against Auburn and a 1 point favorite against Vandy.

I understand the reluctance given the recent past... but how can part of a fan base say 7 wins isn't happening when UT is favored in 7 games this year....:crazy:???

Battered woman's syndrome IMO.

 

[Lawrence Wright]

We are arguing past each other. I'm not, nor have I ever said that Florida's achievements aren't remarkable in context of the NCAA. What I have said is that when you wipe away vanity and pre conceived notions of what actually creates success on the field that Florida is under performing.

I mean are you really arguing that Florida shouldn't have beaten Louisville (as one example)? If no, why? The answer is talent disparity, right? Do that for every game since 2008 and you'll begin to see a pattern develop. That is reality.

I totally understand that this is a remarkable paradigm shift that threatens many traditional subjective football notions. I don't expect you to agree, you're human and that sort of perception shift is hard especially when a huge part of ego is connected to the conclusion that your team/ego are commendable for achievement. The reality is that it can be both:sleep soundly knowing that your team/ego will continue to click off wins for the forseeable future without being threatened by the reality that you could be much better.

Yes, Florida should have beaten Louisville.

The bigger question is whether or not UF should have beaten LSU, Texas A&M, South Carolina and FSU to be in a position to play in the Sugar Bowl.

 

[Vol4life25]

It's just amazing to me that people think we will beat either UGA or USCjr. Those are top 10-15 teams. My six are AP, WKU, S. Alabama, Mizzou or Aub (can't decide which one we win, but not both), Vandy, KY

Vandy is better then Mizoo and Aub...

My six are AP, WKU, S. Alabama, Mizoo, Aub and Kentucky.

If we beat Vandy...that's 7, they do have a New QB, but the dude is a beast, I watched their spring game...he looks like a linebacker.

 

[Burger]

I understand the system, but the numbers don't jive with reality.

How often has any team in college football lost 20 games or less during a 10 year period?

It is extremely rare and historic in nature.

So, for that to be the standard that any team gets held to, is not realistic to me.

His system probably doesn't count in human error. Human error is why these games aren't played on paper. If we look at rivals top 10 classes, most of them are SEC teams. Just that fact makes that two loss statement impossible to hold every year.