Give me your wins

#102
#102
berryvol said:
AP- win 42-13
WKU- win 35-17
Oregon- loss 49-31
Florida- loss 35-24
South Alabama- win 49-10
Georgia- loss 30-27
USCjr- win 31-21
Bammer- loss 21-20
Mizzou- win 31-20
Auburn- win 28-24
Candy- win 35-10
UK- win 42-20
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That has us averaging 33pts per game. Only 3 less than last years average of 36. Really?

I see our D making a big improvement, but I see the O dropping off more than that. Several to the NFL and all those from O. Practically raw QB, somewhat raw at WR & TE.

Can see us at 7 winds but 8 requires us to shock someone IMO. Haven't seen that since Jiffy v UGA & USC, so it's tough to even remember that we can.
 
#103
#103
7 or 8 if we pull an upset. Considering the players the we lose off this years team especially on the line some people think next years record could be about the same or worse.
 
#104
#104
coug said:
Best freshman QB's Ever
Terrelle Pryor
Robert Griffin III
Danny Wuerffel
Kellen Moore
Colt McCoy
Pat White
Tommie Frazier
Sam Bradford
Michael Vick
Jamelle Holieway

Sorry to burst your bubble but good freshman QB's are possible.
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Possible vs likely. Possible scares me if that's what we depend on. I don't like the odds one bit. How many dozens of FR would make a non successful QBs list?
Not seeing a Pryor, Vick or Bradford type rolling into Ktown this year. Would gladly be proven wrong. But I expect our so far lackluster Jr QB to be the guy unless the wheels come off early.
 
#105
#105
berryvol said:
AP- win 42-13
WKU- win 35-17
Oregon- loss 49-31
Florida- loss 35-24
South Alabama- win 49-10
Georgia- loss 30-27
USCjr- win 31-21
Bammer- loss 21-20
Mizzou- win 31-20
Auburn- win 28-24
Candy- win 35-10
UK- win 42-20

I say we win 8. Think it's gonna be similar to kiffin's first year in terms of hanging with most on our schedule. Get ready to surprise some folks this year!
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I agree, but think we will play closer to Oregon, Florida, and SC. Hope you are right about Bama, but think they will win by at least 10. I would think the AP game would be a bigger point spread, but can see lots of backups getting playing time here.
 
#106
#106
bleedorange0037 said:
Because he had a world class defense. In case you missed it, we return almost all of last years defense. While they are proven, the thing that they've proven is that they are awful.
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I've agreed with all your points.

However, I do believe our struggles on defense last year can mostly be attributed to scheme and the complete confusion that Sal Suneri rained down on our players.

I think we will have a slightly improved defense, something along the lines of 60th in the nation, but not anything near good enough to make up for what will surely be an anemic offense.

5-7 is my prediction.
 
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#107
#107
omghulkhands said:
I've agreed with all your points.

However, I do believe are struggles on defense last year can mostly be attributed to scheme and the complete confusion that Sal Suneri rained down on our players.

I think we will have a slightly improved defense, something along the lines of 60th in the nation, but not anything near good enough to make up for what will surely be an anemic offense.

5-7 is my prediction.
Click to expand...

That sort of improvement is certainly a reasonable possibility. It's like somebody said on the radio last fall, they have to get better just to be bad.
 
#108
#108
bleedorange0037 said:
That sort of improvement is certainly a reasonable possibility. It's like somebody said on the radio last fall, they have to get better just to be bad.
Click to expand...

If we win 8 games as some of these people have predicted it means we've either struck gold with Jones and should extend him through 2023 or one of these frosh QBs is an elite level talent that can carry this team (spoiler alert: there have been maybe 10 of those guys ever).

I can't see any other scenario where 8 wins is possible.
 
#109
#109
omghulkhands said:
If we win 8 games as some of these people have predicted it means we've either struck gold with Jones and should extend him through 2023 or one of these frosh QBs is an elite level talent that can carry this team (spoiler alert: there have been maybe 10 of those guys ever).

I can't see any other scenario where 8 wins is possible.
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Agree 100%

Honestly, that list of elite QB's is even shorter when consider that if its one of the guys on our roster then its a guy who just slipped through the cracks and all the big name teams either missed or passed on. Other than RG3, I can't think of any guys like that recently.
 
#110
#110
bleedorange0037 said:
Agree 100%

Honestly, that list of elite QB's is even shorter when consider that if its one of the guys on our roster then its a guy who just slipped through the cracks and all the big name teams either missed or passed on. Other than RG3, I can't think of any guys like that recently.
Click to expand...

The best recent examples of SEC QBs I can think of all have a caveat.

Murray and Manziel both were redshirt freshmen (although both would likely have been fairly prolific as true freshman had circumstances not dictated they redshirt)

Tebow didn't see a ton of snaps as a freshman outside the goal line

Bray didn't seem ready to play until late in the season

Ainge, Matt Jones, Sexy Rexy and basically everyone on this list sans Bray had a much better team around them than what our freshman this year will have.
 
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#111
#111
omghulkhands said:
I've agreed with all your points.

However, I do believe our struggles on defense last year can mostly be attributed to scheme and the complete confusion that Sal Suneri rained down on our players.

I think we will have a slightly improved defense, something along the lines of 60th in the nation, but not anything near good enough to make up for what will surely be an anemic offense.

5-7 is my prediction.
Click to expand...

Excellent points. I would not be surprised, however, to see the defense improve, with better coaching and a basic scheme with which they are more familiar and for which they were previously recruited, to performance levels close to what they achieved under Wilcox's direction the previous year. If memory serves me correctly, that would put us around 40th nationally. The proverbial $64,000 question, unfortunately, is where will the tipping point lie between improved defensive play and diminished offensive output? Personally, I believe that a 6-6 or 7-5 scenario is most probable. A 5-7 record would suggest ultimately that we are no better off with Butch, at this juncture, than we were with Dooley, and I categorically reject that notion. Even with historically bad defensive performance and poor coaching, we were still in position to win another 2-3 games last year. If Butch is in the same situation, he will manage to win at least one game that, "on paper," we shouldn't manage to secure a victory.
 
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#112
#112
Burger said:
His system probably doesn't count in human error. Human error is why these games aren't played on paper. If we look at rivals top 10 classes, most of them are SEC teams. Just that fact makes that two loss statement impossible to hold every year.
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Never claimed the system is flawless, so there is certainly room for error. However a mid 60% correlation during the regular season and almost 90% predictive ability in championship games since 2005 is undeniably strong.
 
#114
#114
daj2576 said:
Never claimed the system is flawless, so there is certainly room for error. However a mid 60% correlation during the regular season and almost 90% predictive ability in championship games since 2005 is undeniably strong.
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60% in the regular season is nothing to be writing home about. Correlation is not always causation my stats teacher said. Did he find a way to eliminate outside variables like injuries? If not, its more useless than a paper weight.
 
#115
#115
Vol4life25 said:
Vandy is better then Mizoo and Aub...

My six are AP, WKU, S. Alabama, Mizoo, Aub and Kentucky.

If we beat Vandy...that's 7, they do have a New QB, but the dude is a beast, I watched their spring game...he looks like a linebacker.
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If? Brother, Candy has to come to Neyland. I don't care if they cloned Johnny Unitas to be the next quarterback. By the time the Vandy game rolls around, this team is going to be chomping at the bit to erase the embarrassment of losing to those punks. The coaching staff is going to have them prepared. The only way we lose that game is for injuries to decimate half the starting lineup.
 
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#116
#116
Burger said:
60% in the regular season is nothing to be writing home about. Correlation is not always causation my stats teacher said. Did he find a way to eliminate outside variables like injuries? If not, its more useless than a paper weight.
Click to expand...

Correlation is not always causation, your stats teacher is correct.

That does not mean that correlation cannot be causation.

Like you, I would like to believe that there is much more variation in what we are lead to believe are events fueled by "intangibles" (you can thank ESPN for making us all a little dumber). The longer I study this sort of thing the less fun watching football becomes as the outcomes become less questionable.

I also readily admit that I don't use "my" system to gamble. When I ran a sample to determine how often the spread is beat, it was not enough to interest me to invest enough of my money to be lucrative.

That being said; there are numerical systems out there that can predict the outcome of college football games to a point where beating the spread is worthy of substantial investment. Sure, there are games that surprise even wildly successful predictive systems (the UT v. Vanderbilt game last year comes to mind). The jump off point in those systems is right where I have left off with my illustrations in these threads.

Like Morpheus says:

"You take the blue pill, the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe...you take the red pill, you stay in wonderland, and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes."

I've always wanted a reason to use that quote. :)
 
#117
#117
Guys, forget last year's team.

This is a new group. They may be good or they may suck.

I think they will play hard which is all you can ask. If they play hard and compete, who knows? They may beat UGA or USC as well as APSU, WKU, S-AL, UK, Vandy, Mizzou, Auburn for 8 wins!

It sucks to be excited for an 8 win season but that's where we are.
 
#118
#118
Boca Vol said:
Guys, forget last year's team.

This is a new group. They may be good or they may suck.

I think they will play hard which is all you can ask. If they play hard and compete, who knows? They may beat UGA or USC as well as APSU, WKU, S-AL, UK, Vandy, Mizzou, Auburn for 8 wins!

It sucks to be excited for an 8 win season but that's where we are.
Click to expand...

We WILL be gooder than suck. Take my word for it. ;)
 
#120
#120
May be overly optimistic but seven wins: Peay, SA, West Kentucky wins but lumps will be taken in the SEC. Georgia game could be very close and a possible upset watch.

I am hopeful after Bama a corner may be turned and a four-game winning streak of
Mizzou, Auburn, Vandy & Kentucky happens. How the team gels and plays in November may be sign of things to come under CBJ. The Kentucky loss in 2011 was a harbinger of Dooley's end. No one should've expected anything but total collapse after that.

But what do I know. I sent get well e-cards to Te'O's girlfriend.
 
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#121
#121
Why should UT be scared of Auburn?

Can someone who is predicting 5-7 give some actual reasons?

QB: Wash..... UT doesn't have a proven guy... neither does AU.

RB: Auburn

OL: UT

WR: Wash... Auburn's leading WR has 14 catches... UT doesn't have any proven guys either.

Defense: AU is switching to a 4-2-5 base. UT is switching to a 4-3.

AU returns 8. UT returns 8. UT has 8 4*'s on this side of the ball that will be starting.

The game is being played in Knoxville and Golden Nugget has UT an 8 point favorite. How can this game be an automatic loss for some of you?
 
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#122
#122
99gator said:
florida is the 4th winningest program in the country since 2005 with two national titles and 4 bcs bowl appearances.

#1 and #3 were not in bcs conferences.

to put florida and underachieve in the same sentence is laughable.

to lump florida in with tennessee is delusional.
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Omg 4th for 7 years that's incredible!!! Try first for 85
 
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#125
#125
Austin Peay
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
Missouri
Vanderbilt
Kentucky


I've been let down so many times in the past few years, it's just hard for me to pick any upsets.... I think it's possible for TN to upset USC or Georgia at home, but I'll believe it when I see it. And Auburn...TN hasn beaten them since like '99. They're just a team TN has historically struggled against :[
 
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