Josh Heupel's time allotment as HC

[Peytons_Forehead]

Why does it take 3 seasons the change the culture at UT, but not at any other school?

Why does a HC at UT get 3 seasons, with zero expectations, when no other coach gets that sort of leeway?

Because 1) We have sanctions that will make it more difficult to recruit players and coaches until the penalty is known, and 2) few programs out there have had a decade of consistent toxicity like we have. Sure, every program out there has a couple bad hires and down years but the extent of the problem here is much broader in scope than usual.

It also depends on your definition of success. 3 years to change the culture? No. Culture change within the program should be much faster. Seeing that translate to wins on the field? 3 years, maybe longer depending on a ton of other variables. We need to trust our AD in the meantime that those close to the program see the progress being made.

 

[GoodmanVol]

Heupel knew sanctions were coming when he took the job. To me, that means he has to have a plan to be successful with sanctions in place. It's one thing to get caught off-guard and say "welp, my hands are tied" and it's another to have a clear picture of the storm ahead and say "I'm going to lead through this."

If Heupel is not successful in the next 3 years, he'd better not use sanctions as an excuse. It's not a "get out of failure free card." This isn't a multi-year free ride. If that's his mentality, he's already a loser.

My expectation of him is that he'll find a way to win with the talent he has, and when recruiting sanction come down, put extra resources into making sure the players we do take are the best possible players for the team.

As for the catch 22 of winning vs. being attractive to recruits? He'd better be busting his butt right now to bring in the best possible athletes because he's only got 2 years of "new coach smell" to get recruits excited about coming to play for him.. play for the possibilties of being great... get early playing time because you fit the system.... 3 years from now, he won't be able to use that. Recruits will (possibly) see lack of production which at UT equates to job insecurity, which is not attractive to top recruits. The '22 and '23 classes will define him. Develop guys to be great players now, then recruit other great players to come train / play with them - thus elevating the program within 3 years.

 

[VOL_Lyfe]

Volnation will call for him to be fired in 2022. Book it.

Why start so late?


FAHR HY-PELL NOW

 

[butchna]

New AD is the type that will never admit a mistake.
He will ride this gig for all the money he can.
Will probably be fired with New Coach.
Both know it is short term.

So we’re talking at least 8 years.

 

[volsknx]

I'm thinking because of the situation we are in right now is so similar to the one Butch inherited (minus the upcoming sanctions) that the Butchisms actually played an integral role in pulling in the recruits he did. That, and the legacy players.

Heupel is going to have to do something to get them into the system. Butch played the play right away card and it worked to an extent but just how long can a football team use that? Granted, the program was down when he took over, same for Dooley but it is no where and I mean absolutely no where near where it is now!

 

[BeardedVol]

Because 1) We have sanctions that will make it more difficult to recruit players and coaches until the penalty is known, and 2) few programs out there have had a decade of consistent toxicity like we have. Sure, every program out there has a couple bad hires and down years but the extent of the problem here is much broader in scope than usual.

It also depends on your definition of success. 3 years to change the culture? No. Culture change within the program should be much faster. Seeing that translate to wins on the field? 3 years, maybe longer depending on a ton of other variables. We need to trust our AD in the meantime that those close to the program see the progress being made.

I still don't see how that nullifies all expectations for Heupel. He took the job, knowing what he was getting into, we aren't devoid of recruited talent, and at the moment, we don't have any limitations on our scholarships.

 

[Devo182]

I have to agree with this assessment. Just as with Fulmer choosing Pruitt, it seems as White had to choose the best of what was available and that includes who would actually take the job.

I see us as having a Matt Luke type set up. Coach three years, get us past the probation period then hire a much better, maybe somewhat proven, coach.

Much better than Huepel?!? Lolol

Show me that list of coaches that have averaged 37 ppg for their 10+ year coaching career I won't wait.

Fwiw Luke averaged 29 ppg career...and his best years (by far) were Freeze's offenses...and yet Huepel's WORST offense ever...a 1 year stint at Utah St scored...29 ppg

People seem to be underestimating just how elite Heupel is.

 

[Peytons_Forehead]

I still don't see how that nullifies all expectations for Heupel. He took the job, knowing what he was getting into, we aren't devoid of recruited talent, and at the moment, we don't have any limitations on our scholarships.

It doesn’t nullify all expectations. I never said it did. But that’s why getting things going might take a few years to get things really rolling and competing for the division here compared to instant success elsewhere. If you see my previous post I think reasonable expectations are to get the locker room right and beat the teams we traditionally beat- UK, Vandy, maybe Mizzou, etc. A 4-8 season would be a failure no doubt. 8-4 would be a resounding success though in my opinion and that would still leave us losing to Bama, Georgia, Florida, and one more team on the schedule.

As for the sanctions- losing scholarships wouldn’t even be as bad as the uncertainty, short term. What makes it hard to recruit is other coaches ambiguously telling players how we’re gonna get hammered by the NCAA and they don’t wanna be held back by it. If the NCAA would go ahead and just send down the punishment, it’d probably be easier to recruit.

 

[feathersax]

I never participate in these "polls". Fine for those who do, but stoking the deadline panic is just absurd

 

[HalfullVol]

Much better than Huepel?!? Lolol

Show me that list of coaches that have averaged 37 ppg for their 10+ year coaching career I won't wait.

Fwiw Luke averaged 29 ppg career...and his best years (by far) were Freeze's offenses...and yet Huepel's WORST offense ever...a 1 year stint at Utah St scored...29 ppg

People seem to be underestimating just how elite Heupel is.

I'm riding with this til I ain't

GET HYPE !!

 

[volsknx]

.

 

[CINCYVOL]

There is talent on this offensive team this year. The defense is highly suspect with no proven LBs and pass rushers. Some very good recruits at LB last year seem to be growing into D linemen. Maybe we get some help from incoming transfers, but the D looks pretty grim at this time. Even if the starters are decent, there is no depth to rely on at LB.

#9 will be a good pass rusher

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I think this is a really complicated question to answer. You can’t consistently win big without big recruits. You can’t *consistently* land big recruits without some wins. Seems like a conundrum...a cycle that’s hard to break...However,...there is a path to success....

First- fix the culture here. No more backstabbing. [All]...pulling in the same direction.

Second- separate ourselves from the SEC bottom dwellers.

Third- gain more local prominence. Be a stable program. Put guys in the NFL. Develop players. ...good development and scheme...

Fourth- start beating teams you aren’t supposed to.

Man, Forehead, I can't give you enough likes for that post. Excellent. Climbing back to prominence is like climbing two rickety ladders at once, while people are throwing things at you.



Recruiting won't advance until wins accrue, and wins won't come until recruiting improves.

But as you say, a good coach who keeps his eye on the fundamentals, demands teamwork and commitment, and continues to grind and grind and grind, and gets his players just grinding and grinding as well...that guy can make his way up both ladders to the top.

Here's hoping Josh Heupel is that guy.

Again, excellent post!

Go Vols!

 

[GrizzlyVol]

CJH will get it done here

 

[volsknx]

. He’s just a placeholder till the next coach I honestly doubt he has one winning season while he’s here and it won’t be his fault really. This program is nuked and cratered for years to come nobody can come in here now and win right now.

Four years max.

Maybe/hopefully by then, there will be some semblance of a foundation for the next coach to build on.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

He's got a 6 year $4M/yr contract with an extra year if (when, actually) we get NCAA sanctions. The buyout is 100% until the end 2023, 75% until the of 2025, and 50% after that.

Fire him after 3yrs? $12M (assuming sanctions)

That structure tells me he has until after the end of 2025, at the very minimum. If he's ultra successful, the NFL may take a run at him before then. If he's ultra awful, he'll be a wealthy OC/QB coach somewhere.

 

[SaintLouisVol]

He’s already done. Can’t ‘cruit. It’s just a matter of time now.

I don't think it is reasonable to expect this staff to recruit at a high level in year one, especially considering all of the dark clouds currently hanging over the program. Their model for improving recruiting is to improve the players already on the roster. If, and yes it is a big if, but if, they can produce a high powered offense that showcases the skillsets of players and attract attention from the NFL., they can improve recruiting. HS kids want to go where they have the best chance to get drafted. I believe CJH could make Tennessee one of those places.

 

[hog88]

Well that’s because it’s mostly true. Now if the sanctions are severe enough, then Heupel certainly deserves more time to get the program on the right track. But for the most part, you can tell by year three whether or not the coach is going to be successful long term.

You can tell in year one.

 

[hog88]

And this is a big reason why the program is in the shape it’s in now. I mean clearly doing that has worked out so well for us since 2008 right?

Name one coach since Fulmer we fired too early? I'll wait.

 

[hog88]

First, our sanctions will be nothing worse than probation and a limit on official visits. No bowl bans or scholarship reductions so take that excuse off the table now.

CJH will be here a minimum of 4 years baring back to back 5 wins or less seasons. If he can get us to 7-8 wins by year 3 he will be given an extension and be guaranteed to be here 5 seasons. Personally I think CJH has a ceiling of 7-8 wins per season with the occasional 9 win season and sadly that mediocre performance is good enough to keep him in Knoxville for a long time.

 

[sjt18]

VN needs to remember the rule that some VN fans have created. Regardless of how bad the situation is, if a HC doesn’t win big in year 3, then there is NO WAY they will be any good.

No. That's not the "rule". The fact that you built a strawman from the very start... destroys your credibility in the discussion.

The logic is straight forward and is repeated across college football.

MOST new P-5 coaches take over programs because the last guy failed. The universal rule is that they need to recruit well from the start- particularly years 2 and 3 since they're likely to have a weak 1st class built mostly by the previous guy. To do that, they have to prove they can coach. They have to put a product on the field that they can sell to recruits to pull them away from more successful and stable programs. If they win games and particularly more than expected then recruits, media, and fans talk them up.

Fail to win and particularly get blown out as UT's recent coaches have vs big rivals... and recruits very quickly stop listening. Don't get the players... then you better cut your losses at 3 or 4 years.

Historically, guys who do not win 9 games within the first 3 years do not go on to be successful at that program. You obviously don't like that fact.... but your feelings don't change it.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Fire Hoople!

 

[sjt18]

First, our sanctions will be nothing worse than probation and a limit on official visits. No bowl bans or scholarship reductions so take that excuse off the table now.

CJH will be here a minimum of 4 years baring back to back 5 wins or less seasons. If he can get us to 7-8 wins by year 3 he will be given an extension and be guaranteed to be here 5 seasons. Personally I think CJH has a ceiling of 7-8 wins per season with the occasional 9 win season and sadly that mediocre performance is good enough to keep him in Knoxville for a long time.

Can't buy that. Winning 7 or 8 at UT is not enough to keep getting players capable of winning 7-8.

I think a coach at UGA can tread water. There's enough homer recruits to sustain mediocrity. There are a few other programs that either through recruiting advantages or competition (Ohio State for example) can tread water as a 7-8 win program. Most can't. UT in particular can't. UT has two related recruiting problems. One is that UT has to recruit regionally and nationally every year to be successful. Second is that UT has had a fairly long run of coaches that haven't recruited in state very well.

UT needs players. Players want to see success and improvement.

 

[The Tall Gguy]

Hopefully the cycle will be broken...you know the one...
At first you will see great support here on Volnation. Our fanbase has a tendency to worship our coaches. Don't let this fool you, because it was the EXACT same way with our previous 3 coaches. This fanbase will turn on you, even the coach worshippers. It is a cycle. Coach announced...great support...not much progress...support lost. You can look back over Volnation for the past 3 hires and confirm this. This even happened with the Kiffin hire. These coach worshippers will act like they never liked your hire.

 

[hog88]

Can't buy that. Winning 7 or 8 at UT is not enough to keep getting players capable of winning 7-8.

I think a coach at UGA can tread water. There's enough homer recruits to sustain mediocrity. There are a few other programs that either through recruiting advantages or competition (Ohio State for example) can tread water as a 7-8 win program. Most can't. UT in particular can't. UT has two related recruiting problems. One is that UT has to recruit regionally and nationally every year to be successful. Second is that UT has had a fairly long run of coaches that haven't recruited in state very well.

UT needs players. Players want to see success and improvement.

The reality is we can build 7 wins into our schedule pretty easy with playing UK, Vandy, USC and Mizzu every year.