He estimated 1/2 to 2/3 of UK deaths from Covid are people that would have died by the end of the year regardless of covid
Wouldn't you imagine that flu also has a lot of these deaths as well (sidebar)?
That number seems oddly high - unless the only people who are getting tested and confirmed positive were already gravely ill.
If you look at mortality rates of 75-84 year olds with major cardiovascular disease it is 1,400 per 100k population. That seems like quite a major risk category.
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Let's do some math with this. The deaths that have occurred through today are more reflective of the cases recorded through a day in the past. Let's say that is 7 days ago (you die 7 days after getting your positive diagnosis). I think that's conservative. Time to death post-onset of symptoms averages about 17 days, I believe. If you go get your test on day 3 of symptoms and it takes 5 days to get the result back, then you are a confirmed positive 9 days before death. I'll use 7 to add a little extra conservatism.
7 days ago the total cases was 350k. Total deaths are at 23.5k.
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If we assume all 350k are 75-84 year olds and we assume that they all got infected 6 weeks ago when we started having deaths (ridiculously conservative), at 1,400 deaths / year / 100k, we would expect 565 deaths. Now, old people with heart disease isn't the only demographic at risk of dying. But I'm saying everyone who has been diagnosed falls in this bucket - it would seem to overly-capture this "high risk" effect. And in that case in the US you would just have 565 deaths expected over that period from that at-risk group, with no impact from CV19. Over the course of this entire year (52 - 14 weeks = 38 weeks), you would expect deaths to look more like 3,600 more deaths .... or a total of 3.2k lets say. And that is assuming that every person that tested positive fits this high death rate demographic! That's something like 12% of recorded deaths.
So, I have a hard time coming up with anything close to 1/2 of the deaths would have died anyway this year.
But, I don't have detailed data on the stats of each person with a positive test and the details on the deaths. For the US or for the UK. I just try to make sense of numbers I hear and I'm having a hard time with that one.