Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#39,476
#39,476
Volsfaninva917 said:
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season | CDC
CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season

IHME | COVID-19 Projections
All beds needed
56,831beds


WTF are we doing?
Click to expand...

I believe that all beds needed stat is their projection of max beds needed on peak day. Is that right? If so, we need to do some math.

Flu hospitalizations are odd. If you take the CDC official cumulative hospitalization rate for the 18-19 season it ended the season at 63.6 / 100,000. With about 328MM people that gives you 209k deaths. But their median estimate was 491k as you posted above. That is 2.35x. This must have something to do with the catchment zones they use to track flu (TN is one of those) vs. how they scale that up to general population in their final modeling.

Peak week over week cumulative hospitalization rate changes in 18-19 occurred during weeks 8-11 of 2019 (that is weeks 21-24 of total flu season). Over that time the cumulative hospitalization rate changed from 33.5 / 100,000 to 46.8 / 100,000. That is a change of 13.3 over 3 weeks, or a total of 13.3 / 100,000 x 328 MM = 43.6k hospitalizations over this 3 week peak period. Given that it seems the hospitalizations tracked by the CDC ended up being about 2.35 times lower than their final estimates for hospitalizations, I'm going to scale this up: 43.6k x 2.35 = 102.5k hospitalizations over that 3 week period.

Doing more math:

103k hospitalizations over the 3 week peak
Looks like the average hospitalization time for influenza is 5.3 days per patient
So, that is 546k hospital bed-days during the 3-week peak
21 days over the 3-weak peak
That works out to be 26,000 beds needed during the peak

That is less than half the beds that were projected by IHME for the peak hospitalization rate for CV. And that is on top of the beds that were still occupied by flu patients. I think that IHME, even after their revisions, still over-predicted hospital bed need, though.

But I think this math makes sense of the numbers. We just finished week 6 of having CV deaths. 3 of those 6 weeks have been spent in lockdown. Yet we ran 2x past the number of hospital beds needed at peak flu season. I don't want to think of what those numbers would have looked like had we waited 3 more weeks before doing anything. We are already over 25k deaths. By week 6 of having flu deaths, we were only at 119 deaths. Now, the same scaling issue exists there. We only lab-confirmed 7,171 flu deaths in the 2018-2019 season. But we estimate there were 34,200 deaths. So that is 4.8x higher deaths estimated in the season than were lab-confirmed. If we apply that same scaling factor we get 571 deaths vs. over 25,000 (but these are lab-confirmed CV+ deaths - modeled deaths would almost certainly be higher). CV came on fast and hard once we started counting deaths. I think that answers the question of what we are doing.
 
#39,477
#39,477
titansvolsfaninga said:
What is the duration of flu season that you are comparing? Normally the flu season is 6 or 7 months.
Click to expand...

That is a full year cycle. It measures it from Week 40 of 2018 to Week 39 of 2019. As you say, peak flu season is a subset of that. Also, those numbers are all modeled using flu net data - the lab-confirmed numbers collected by the CDC are all much lower.
 
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#39,478
#39,478
BowlBrother85 said:
I got my $1,200 and it covers the mortgage for May and even a bit of my child support. It's a life saver. I never saw a physical check, and it is not a big deal that Trump's signature is in the memo line. That is kind of my point. Even at a time of crisis for our country, our president is still worried about getting credit and scoring political points over something trivial. It says something about Trump as a person that this was important to him, and he insisted on it. I heard George Will call it "colossal gall" earlier in an interview. That about sums it up.

I hope everyone else has received theirs... even if you didn't need it, it's a nice boost.
Click to expand...
Good to hear.
 
#39,479
#39,479
BowlBrother85 said:
I got my $1,200 and it covers the mortgage for May and even a bit of my child support. It's a life saver. I never saw a physical check, and it is not a big deal that Trump's signature is in the memo line. That is kind of my point. Even at a time of crisis for our country, our president is still worried about getting credit and scoring political points over something trivial. It says something about Trump as a person that this was important to him, and he insisted on it. I heard George Will call it "colossal gall" earlier in an interview. That about sums it up.

I hope everyone else has received theirs... even if you didn't need it, it's a nice boost.
Click to expand...
I'm glad it helped you out BB.
 
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#39,480
#39,480
[QUOTE="TennTradition, post: 18157395, member: 3629]I believe that all beds needed stat is their projection of max beds needed on peak day. Is that right? If so, we need to do some math.
Flu hospitalizations are odd. If you take the CDC official cumulative hospitalization rate for the 18-19 season it ended the season at 63.6 / 100,000. With about 328MM people that gives you 209k deaths. But their median estimate was 491k as you posted above. That is 2.35x. This must have something to do with the catchment zones they use to track flu (TN is one of those) vs. how they scale that up to general population in their final modeling.

Peak week over week cumulative hospitalization rate changes in 18-19 occurred during weeks 8-11 of 2019 (that is weeks 21-24 of total flu season). Over that time the cumulative hospitalization rate changed from 33.5 / 100,000 to 46.8 / 100,000. That is a change of 13.3 over 3 weeks, or a total of 13.3 / 100,000 x 328 MM = 43.6k hospitalizations over this 3 week peak period. Given that it seems the hospitalizations tracked by the CDC ended up being about 2.35 times lower than their final estimates for hospitalizations, I'm going to scale this up: 43.6k x 2.35 = 102.5k hospitalizations over that 3 week period.

Doing more math:

103k hospitalizations over the 3 week peak
Looks like the average hospitalization time for influenza is 5.3 days per patient
So, that is 546k hospital bed-days during the 3-week peak
21 days over the 3-weak peak
That works out to be 26,000 beds needed during the peak

That is less than half the beds that were projected by IHME for the peak hospitalization rate for CV. And that is on top of the beds that were still occupied by flu patients. I think that IHME, even after their revisions, still over-predicted hospital bed need, though.

But I think this math makes sense of the numbers. We just finished week 6 of having CV deaths. 3 of those 6 weeks have been spent in lockdown. Yet we ran 2x past the number of hospital beds needed at peak flu season. I don't want to think of what those numbers would have looked like had we waited 3 more weeks before doing anything. We are already over 25k deaths. By week 6 of having flu deaths, we were only at 119 deaths. Now, the same scaling issue exists there. We only lab-confirmed 7,171 flu deaths in the 2018-2019 season. But we estimate there were 34,200 deaths. So that is 4.8x higher deaths estimated in the season than were lab-confirmed. If we apply that same scaling factor we get 571 deaths vs. over 25,000 (but these are lab-confirmed CV+ deaths - modeled deaths would almost certainly be higher). CV came on fast and hard once we started counting deaths. I think that answers the question of what we are doing.[/QUOTE]

Incorrect, that is that total number of beds that will be needed for coronavirus not the daily number. Which we are past peak resource. So again, WTF are we doing
 
#39,482
#39,482
TennTradition said:
I believe that all beds needed stat is their projection of max beds needed on peak day. Is that right? If so, we need to do some math.

Flu hospitalizations are odd. If you take the CDC official cumulative hospitalization rate for the 18-19 season it ended the season at 63.6 / 100,000. With about 328MM people that gives you 209k deaths. But their median estimate was 491k as you posted above. That is 2.35x. This must have something to do with the catchment zones they use to track flu (TN is one of those) vs. how they scale that up to general population in their final modeling.

Peak week over week cumulative hospitalization rate changes in 18-19 occurred during weeks 8-11 of 2019 (that is weeks 21-24 of total flu season). Over that time the cumulative hospitalization rate changed from 33.5 / 100,000 to 46.8 / 100,000. That is a change of 13.3 over 3 weeks, or a total of 13.3 / 100,000 x 328 MM = 43.6k hospitalizations over this 3 week peak period. Given that it seems the hospitalizations tracked by the CDC ended up being about 2.35 times lower than their final estimates for hospitalizations, I'm going to scale this up: 43.6k x 2.35 = 102.5k hospitalizations over that 3 week period.

Doing more math:

103k hospitalizations over the 3 week peak
Looks like the average hospitalization time for influenza is 5.3 days per patient
So, that is 546k hospital bed-days during the 3-week peak
21 days over the 3-weak peak
That works out to be 26,000 beds needed during the peak

That is less than half the beds that were projected by IHME for the peak hospitalization rate for CV. And that is on top of the beds that were still occupied by flu patients. I think that IHME, even after their revisions, still over-predicted hospital bed need, though.

But I think this math makes sense of the numbers. We just finished week 6 of having CV deaths. 3 of those 6 weeks have been spent in lockdown. Yet we ran 2x past the number of hospital beds needed at peak flu season. I don't want to think of what those numbers would have looked like had we waited 3 more weeks before doing anything. We are already over 25k deaths. By week 6 of having flu deaths, we were only at 119 deaths. Now, the same scaling issue exists there. We only lab-confirmed 7,171 flu deaths in the 2018-2019 season. But we estimate there were 34,200 deaths. So that is 4.8x higher deaths estimated in the season than were lab-confirmed. If we apply that same scaling factor we get 571 deaths vs. over 25,000 (but these are lab-confirmed CV+ deaths - modeled deaths would almost certainly be higher). CV came on fast and hard once we started counting deaths. I think that answers the question of what we are doing.
Click to expand...
Incorrect, that is that total number of beds that will be needed for coronavirus not the daily number. Which we are past peak resource. So again, WTF are we doing
 
#39,484
#39,484
n_huffhines said:
He didn't say "some are rapists". He said "they are rapists". He did say some are good people, as if that's the exception to the rule. Nobody is saying Trump said "all" or that he implied all. You don't have to say or mean "all" to make a bigoted generalization. It's still a bigoted generalization to call out a group for being "rapists". You're arguing useless semantics.
Click to expand...

DONALD TRUMP: When do we beat Mexico at the border? They’re laughing at us, at our stupidity. And now they are beating us economically. They are not our friend, believe me. But they’re killing us economically.

The U.S. has become a dumping ground for everybody else’s problems.

Thank you. It’s true, and these are the best and the finest. When Mexico sends its people, they’re not sending their best. They’re not sending you. They’re not sending you. They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems with us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people.

But I speak to border guards and they tell us what we’re getting. And it only makes common sense. It only makes common sense. They’re sending us not the right people.

It’s coming from more than Mexico. It’s coming from all over South and Latin America, and it’s coming probably— probably— from the Middle East. But we don’t know. Because we have no protection and we have no competence, we don’t know what’s happening. And it’s got to stop and it’s got to stop fast.

So, yeah, he's saying SOME. In interviews with C. Wallace and K. Tur, he refers to a belief that Mexican government is sending at least some portion of immigrants over, possibly conflating that with Castro's sending criminals and undesirables to the U.S. along with those who simply fled Cuba.

If Trump were racist, I think 1/3rd of Hispanics/Latinos and Asians who voted for him, just might have abstained.
And that was really the only item of a laundry list that you could have attempted to rebut.
 
#39,486
#39,486
Stew Cook said:
Please, explain your rationale, if you feel so inclined. I guess you are one of those who would decline wearing a hard hat in a construction area.
Click to expand...
It's none of these dumbass governors/mayors place to tell people they have to wear a mask. I am happy to see people are starting to reach the peak of what they will take
 
#39,487
#39,487
BowlBrother85 said:
I got my $1,200 and it covers the mortgage for May and even a bit of my child support. It's a life saver. I never saw a physical check, and it is not a big deal that Trump's signature is in the memo line. That is kind of my point. Even at a time of crisis for our country, our president is still worried about getting credit and scoring political points over something trivial. It says something about Trump as a person that this was important to him, and he insisted on it. I heard George Will call it "colossal gall" earlier in an interview. That about sums it up.

I hope everyone else has received theirs... even if you didn't need it, it's a nice boost.
Click to expand...
Glad to see its gonna help!
 
#39,490
#39,490
Weezy said:
The media has painted a picture that shutting down the country is actually the safe, default move. I'd argue shutting down the country for something we know so little about was actually the hail mary. It's an unprecedented move. The safe play was doing what we do every flu season, if you have a breakout respond accordingly, which would have been closing visitation to nursing homes and increasing medical supplies.
Click to expand...
You can’t call a Hail Mary when you’re on defense. We’re just now looking at going on offense again (which I understand needs to happen at some point), but to do so without a significantly more aggressive testing program to allow more accurate tracking would be reckless.
 
#39,492
#39,492
Stew Cook said:
So, we hit those deaths in about a month, where would we be without the "stay at home" orders/recommendations?

How is our PPE and production and test kits coming along, these are the most important factors in "opening back up". I'll feel a little better when I can find hand sanitizer, I imagine a few other people are looking forward to this as well.
Click to expand...

How much you need our corner store has boxes of it . Has had it for over a week now .
 
#39,493
#39,493
n_huffhines said:
Unreal. People openly admitting to the fact that they like an egomaniac because he's open about it. Trump is fake AF in other ways. Let's not get crazy here.
Click to expand...

You're being told all presidents - and for that matter, politicians - are egomaniacal. It's not an endorsement of narcissism but a preference they'd rather see it.

You're saying you prefer the veneer.
 
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#39,495
#39,495
Volsfaninva917 said:
Incorrect, that is that total number of beds that will be needed for coronavirus not the daily number. Which we are past peak resource. So again, WTF are we doing
Click to expand...

You sure about that?

How can it go up to 56k and then drop again if it isn't a daily number? If it were cumulative it would be an S-curve, not a skewed gaussian error function.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

It says right there: Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date
 
#39,496
#39,496
FLVOL_79 said:
That's not the point. It isnt even remotely related to the issue.

Clinton legit broke the law. Trump just broke your beta feelings.
Click to expand...
I've identified some specific traits and characteristics of people who use the "beta" term nonsense.
You seem to fit the mold perfectly.
 
#39,498
#39,498
TennTradition said:
You sure about that?

How can it go up to 56k and then drop again if it isn't a daily number? If it were cumulative it would be an S-curve, not a skewed gaussian error function.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

It says right there: Resources needed for COVID-19 patients on peak date
Click to expand...
Because people have been released, it shows current hospitalizations.

Right, that's how many beds that will be occupied that day
 
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