Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#44,452
#44,452
OHvol40 said:
He’s the head of the National Governors Association, he’s pretty important in setting precedent in this country. Governors are left to deal with an international crisis on an individual basis, I guess it’s basically all their call.
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Lol it’s there damn job to take care of their state and they aren’t doing anything on an international level except buying kits made in a different country . It’s not an international crisis to a country when it’s shut down , it’s a national / individual state crisis . I don’t care if he buys all his kits from wherever , in the end he’s still going to try to squeeze money out of the feds .
 
#44,453
#44,453
0nelilreb said:
Lol it’s there damn job to take care of their state and they aren’t doing anything on an international level except buying kits made in a different country . It’s not an international crisis to a country when it’s shut down , it’s a national / individual state crisis . I don’t care if he buys all his kits from wherever , in the end he’s still going to try to squeeze money out of the feds .
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Of course he is. You would too.
 
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#44,454
#44,454
0nelilreb said:
Fake numbers will do that . Next year let’s include car crashes and heart attacks in with the influenza column and see what happens . This is a fun game we are playing huh ?
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Do it and you'll see the flu death numbers largely unchanged.

This year, we had about 9,000 lab-confirmed flu deaths.

But we say we will have 24,000-62,000 flu deaths. From modeling. The error bars are big enough that uncertainty is larger (38k) is larger than the lower bound.

We have roughly 40,000 lab confirmed COVID deaths (vs. 9k for flu where we say the real number is closer to 30k-60k) and about 5,000 probable (based on case history, data on contacts who were covid positive, autopsy, etc.), yet it is the CV death numbers that are just way off and so wrong and can't be trusted?

I don't understand this fascination with the making light of the CV death numbers as if they are manufactured because they include either a) non-CV leading cause deaths and b) probable numbers. This is especially a shocking position to me from someone who holds flu deaths up as a standard when the accepted number of deaths fall in a range of 3-7 times higher than the lab-confirmed number.

What percentage of the US population do you think dies of heart attacks and car accidents every day? Unless the people who test positive for CV are the unluckiest group on the planet - their non-CV mortality rate is going to pale in comparison to their CV mortality rate.
 
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#44,455
#44,455
NurseGoodVol said:
It has been in country before February.
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Well, we know it has been here since Jan 15th, at least.

I'd be interested in knowing whether the early Feb death was someone who had traveled to China. An early Feb death from community infection would be significant as it moves our CA start date up a decent amount (vs. just a death of someone who didn't contract in-country).
 
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#44,456
#44,456
OHvol40 said:
I actually just made the point about more testing bringing the mortality rate down, so I’m not sure why you people aren’t up in arms pushing for more testing, but that’s beside the point.

The number of people you test doesn’t matter. The % of your population tested mattered. To get an adequate sample size to determine actual infection rates, mortality rates, transmissibility, and relative herd immunity you have to test a large enough % of the population to be statistically significant. The actual number means nothing if it’s a small relative % of the population. It’s not terribly difficult to understand.
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And yet you are having a difficult time with it.

What needs to be done will be done, eventually. Right now, testing those with symptoms and being focused on the "hot spots" gives us an adequate window of what is going on.

The antibody test will eventually give us a good idea of who has had it and to the extent it has already traveled through the general population. That's not the testing you have been talking about, now is it?

There is no way possible to test the amount of people in a compressed segment of time that would require what you have deemed "necessary." The sheer numbers of people to have to be run through the test, (30-60-90 million, more?) the number of people needed to collect the tests, to process the tests, the materials needed to conduct the tests, the labs/machines needed to run the tests, etc. All the while practicing "social distancing"? And do it all right now. Get out of town.

Now about that 7% mortality rate that started all this . . . still want to maintain that number?
 
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#44,458
#44,458
37L1 said:
And yet you are having a difficult time with it.

What needs to be done will be done, eventually. Right now, testing those with symptoms and being focused on the "hot spots" gives us an adequate window of what is going on.

The antibody test will eventually give us a good idea of who has had it and to the extent it has already traveled through the general population. That's not the testing you have been talking about, now is it?

There is no way possible to test the amount of people in a compressed segment of time that would require what you have deemed "necessary." The sheer numbers of people to have to be run through the test, (30-60-90 million, more?) the number of people needed to collect the tests, to process the tests, the materials needed to conduct the tests, the labs/machines needed to run the tests, etc. All the while practicing "social distancing"? And do it all right now. Get out of town.

Now about that 7% mortality rate that started all this . . . still want to maintain that number?
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I covered that number ad nauseam. If you want to read what I wrote earlier and challenge me on what I said, be my guest.

I know a lot about serology testing. There won’t be enough IgG IgM testing to determine something like achieved heard immunity for probably a couple years. The first major rounds of serology tests this fall will go to priority populations like healthcare workers and nursing home residents.
 
#44,459
#44,459
OHvol40 said:
I covered that number ad nauseam. If you want to read what I wrote earlier and challenge me on what I said, be my guest.

I know a lot about serology testing. There won’t be enough IgG IgM testing to determine something like achieved heard immunity for probably a couple years. The first major rounds of serology tests this fall will go to priority populations like healthcare workers and nursing home residents.
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Gee, just like what's happening now. You can test for people that have symptoms to find out if they have it or not. If they are tested and come back negative, there is no way to know whether or not they will test positive tomorrow, next week or next month, is there? Testing people without symptoms? What's that going to accomplish? So are you going to conduct multiple tests on people, like every month? I doubt it.

So back to your 7% mortality rate, still going to stick by that number?
 
#44,461
#44,461
37L1 said:
Gee, just like what's happening now. You can test for people that have symptoms to find out if they have it or not. If they are tested and come back negative, there is no way to know whether or not they will test positive tomorrow, next week or next month, is there? Testing people without symptoms? What's that going to accomplish? So are you going to conduct multiple tests on people, like every month? I doubt it.

So back to your 7% mortality rate, still going to stick by that number?
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You didn’t do your assigned reading, did you?
 
#44,463
#44,463
37L1 said:
Well, yes I did. How far back do I need to go? Your posts are so scintillating.

Answer my question. 7% mortality, yes or no?
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Here, let me copy and paste it for you:

”When did I say anything about a projection? Here is what everyone is referencing:

March 3rd I made the statement that I came from a meeting with the state health department and our system director of infectious disease. In that meeting we covered the current state of the SARS CoV-2 in the US and our preparedness plans. The current information put the mortality rate at 7.1%. I never said that’s what it would be or that it was a prognostication of any kind. It’s what the statistic was with the amount of positive tests vs the amount of deaths at that current date. No more, no less. So this “projection” narrative is something that someone made up in their little head along the way.”
 
#44,464
#44,464
OHvol40 said:
Here, let me copy and paste it for you:

”When did I say anything about a projection? Here is what everyone is referencing:

March 3rd I made the statement that I came from a meeting with the state health department and our system director of infectious disease. In that meeting we covered the current state of the SARS CoV-2 in the US and our preparedness plans. The current information put the mortality rate at 7.1%. I never said that’s what it would be or that it was a prognostication of any kind. It’s what the statistic was with the amount of positive tests vs the amount of deaths at that current date. No more, no less. So this “projection” narrative is something that someone made up in their little head along the way.”
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So is the answer "No, I'm not standing behind the 7% mortality rate?"

How hard is it for you to just come out and say that? Must be difficult, because so far you have done just about everything but that, until finally, sort of.
 
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#44,465
#44,465
37L1 said:
So is the answer "No, I'm not standing behind the 7% mortality rate?"

How hard is it for you to just come out and say that? Must be difficult, because so far you have done just about everything but that, until finally, sort of.
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I never projected a 7% death rate, some dingus in here thought I did. So why would I stand behind something I never said?
 
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#44,467
#44,467
vols40 said:
It's not paying more it's the fact that you would not have that option. Do you seriously think someone drawing nearly $800 per week are going to give that up to perform this job?
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This has been discussed ad nauseam. Unemployment doesn’t last forever, not everyone qualifies for unemployment and with the unemployment rate as it is, there are Americans available to do the job at the right price. Companies never want to pay higher wages when they don’t have to, so that’s why they resort to H-1B and H-2A visas.
 
#44,470
#44,470
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#44,471
#44,471
Volsfaninva917 said:
Just admit, you were cheering for it to fail just so you could come on a college team fan site and scream I was right motherf#$kers
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who would cheer for it to fail.....personally, I was always in the wait and see boat. Clinical trials and more tests needed to be done. The echo chamber on the right was clamoring for it and presenting anecdotal evidence that it was the miracle cure. I got ridiculed for saying more tests needed to be done, and not to give people false hope.
 
#44,472
#44,472
OHvol40 said:
Here, let me copy and paste it for you:

”When did I say anything about a projection? Here is what everyone is referencing:

March 3rd I made the statement that I came from a meeting with the state health department and our system director of infectious disease. In that meeting we covered the current state of the SARS CoV-2 in the US and our preparedness plans. The current information put the mortality rate at 7.1%. I never said that’s what it would be or that it was a prognostication of any kind. It’s what the statistic was with the amount of positive tests vs the amount of deaths at that current date. No more, no less. So this “projection” narrative is something that someone made up in their little head along the way.”
Click to expand...

So if someone tells you something, no matter how stupid it is, you believe it.

No one made anything up. You happily relayed the nonsense that you believed.
 
#44,475
#44,475
These organizations encouraging people to go out and protest are playing Russian Roulette with peoples lives. This is the point in time when Government should step in and provide income to people that are out of work and pass legislation to halt all credit payments. The income that they are providing people is essentially OUR taxes that they are returning to us.
 
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