Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

That is always the case. NY is hit harder during the seasonal flu. In Brooklyn alone, you have 2.5 million people living within 70 square miles of each other. Of course they are going to be exceptionally vulnerable to the spread of viruses.

And therefore stating the NY death rate is not a good indicator of the death rate for the rest of the country. Which is what I was pointing out. It's not a narrative. It is a statement of fact just as EL's NY death rate post was a statement of fact.

Looking at the data; NY has 43% of the Covid deaths and 6% of the population. It is by definition an outlier. In contrast California has 3% of the Covid deaths and 12% of the population. Does NY typically account for 43% of flu deaths or anything close to that (yes I know the number will go down as other states peak).

Now, how about the projection of total deaths by end of 2020 - I haven't seen it and am curious.
 
That was fast, PITT is still waiting on FDA approval to start Human trials. Our government drags its feet while the rest of the world hits the ground running. Even if the UK vaccine is proven successful how long will it take the fda to approve?

The US started human vaccine trials in Seattle over a month ago. They have also began the second round of shots for those folks which is supposedly a good sign so far.
 
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Doesn't appear they know the results yet. "While the doctors at Kaiser Permanente's Vaccine Treatment and Evaluation Unit in Seattle don’t know the results of the first round of tests, the fact that it has continued and that the second round of injections are now being given is good news..."

Second round of shots for first coronavirus vaccine test start

From the article this is still Phase 1 and expected to run a year. I know that in some cases they may include some Phase 2 (efficacy) data and fast track stuff that is both showing safety (P1) and early efficacy (P2) but from the article they are still just checking to see if it's safe.


"The test is part of Phase I trial of the possible vaccine. The goal is to test the safety of various doses and whether these doses produce an immune response.
Phase I trials don’t study whether the vaccine is effective in preventing COVID-19 infection. That comes in Phase II."

It's why I was skeptical about the UK claims they could be through trials by September of this year - can't see how Phase 1, 2 and 3 gets condensed into 4 - 5 months. Debbie Downer
 
My last post of the night... I have to get back to my Netflix docs... watching Dream/Killer tonight. I just want all of these socialist-hating red hatters to take note of these Trump bail outs in the last month. No democrat has ever done anything like this... and it certainly is income redistribution on an unprecedented level. But you're against socialism, right? Yeah, whatever you say.
 
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My last post of the night... I have to get back to my Netflix docs... watching Dream/Killer tonight. I just want all of these socialist-hating red hatters to take note of these Trump bail outs in the last month. No democrat has ever done anything like this... and it certainly is income redistribution on an unprecedented level. But you're against socialism, right? Yeah, whatever you say.

any chance you could provide that 2020 death projection?
 
My last post of the night... I have to get back to my Netflix docs... watching Dream/Killer tonight. I just want all of these socialist-hating red hatters to take note of these Trump bail outs in the last month. No democrat has ever done anything like this... and it certainly is income redistribution on an unprecedented level. But you're against socialism, right? Yeah, whatever you say.

True, we are not against socialism. Thus all our complaining. You got us.
 
This is wrong. By the end of 2020, American deaths from the Coronavirus will be much greater than "a bad flu year" (Virologists predict there will be a resurgence in the summer with a 2nd spike) and that is even with all of the precautions being taken... which are not normally taken to combat the seasonal flu.
In a typical year someone in hospice wouldn’t be counted as a flu death.
 
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The left likes to blame Trump for the lack of testing but actually it's just government red tape:

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer says reopening Michigan's economy is slowed by a shortage of COVID-19 tests to screen employees reentering workplaces, and she blames the Trump administration for not responding to states' needs.

Dearborn businessman Ali Siblani says he can make all the test swabs Michigan requires, and he blames the state bureaucracy for creating an artificial shortage.

Siblani switched to making Nasopharyngeal (NP) swabs a few weeks ago, and has been sending 200,000 a day, he says, to the University of Michigan, Henry Ford Health Systems, the City of New York and hospitals in Chicago, Boston and elsewhere. He says his swabs have been tested and approved by the Food and Drug Administration.

Bob Wheaton, a spokesman for the Department of Health and Human Services, says Michigan follows a careful process for vetting medical supplies before making a purchase, particularly when new technology is involved.

"Because 3D-printed swabs are new technology, MDHHS is undergoing due diligence to ensure every possible product meets all of the best safety and accuracy standards for the people of Michigan," Wheaton said. "The department appreciates the work that EnVisionTECH is doing during a time in which it’s vitally important that COVID-19 testing be expanded."

Fair enough. But Siblani says he developed his product with guidance from Harvard University, and the swabs are already in use in a lot of places. In times of crisis, some red tape has to be cut to rush solutions, particularly when it means getting people safely back to work.

Finley: He's got virus tests, but the state won't take them
 
And therefore stating the NY death rate is not a good indicator of the death rate for the rest of the country. Which is what I was pointing out. It's not a narrative. It is a statement of fact just as EL's NY death rate post was a statement of fact.

Looking at the data; NY has 43% of the Covid deaths and 6% of the population. It is by definition an outlier. In contrast California has 3% of the Covid deaths and 12% of the population. Does NY typically account for 43% of flu deaths or anything close to that (yes I know the number will go down as other states peak).

Now, how about the projection of total deaths by end of 2020 - I haven't seen it and am curious.

I'm not sure it's not an OK place to use to study death RATE. We don't have the data to do that yet but with antibody testing we'll get an idea of how many people got it. And the numbers are bigger there so errors will be less.

But from a total deaths perspective they skew the data. This is a fast spreading virus and due their contact patterns they flew off. Other cities would have ended up looking like them had they done nothing but honestly NYC saved them in some ways. People saw what was going on there and were more accepting of the quarantines. It's never going to spread as fast in Cincinnati as NYC. But, if Cincinnati does nothing it will keep building and get to numbers as a percentage similar to what NY had here. BUT, and big but, Cincinnati would have a better opportunity to see it coming because growth is slower. And generally when you see it coming you don't just keep doing nothing.
 

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