Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,276
#90,276
Volsfaninva917 said:
Show me where I said you said this? I do recall a few on here saying they wouldn't take it but now you guys are all giddy and ready to do your part. I've had my shots EL, have you?
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I'm a runner with a 55 bpm pulse with no comorbidities, so they won't let me get one yet.
 
#90,282
#90,282
evillawyer said:
Not these experts.

When will the US reach herd immunity? - CNN

But I'm sure you and your pediatrician buddies are more qualified than these guys to opine on when we'll hit herd immunity

Dr. Arturo Casadevall, chair of molecular microbiology and immunology at Johns Hopkins University;
Justin Lessler, associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University;
Jessica Malaty Rivera, science communications lead at the COVID Tracking Project;
Dr. Aneesh Mehta, of the Emory Vaccine Center; and
Dr. Christopher Murray, director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
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That graph predicts herd immunity in June by combining estimated infected people and immunized people. If that is the case then isn't that consistent with what KD has been predicting? What's your gripe?
 
#90,286
#90,286
evillawyer said:
It looks like estimates for the numbers of Americans infected with COVID is a little over 70 million, which is a little over 1/5 of the population. That's a long ways from herd immunity.

New machine-learning algorithm estimates number of COVID-19 cases in the U.S.
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The CNN source you post a few minutes earlier said:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that more than 83 million people in the United States had Covid-19 by the end of 2020, putting the nation about a third of the way to herd immunity
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Make up your mind. Based on CNN we'll reach herd immunity by June. I think that's a reasonable prediction. How 'bout you? Do you agree with CNN or did you present a source that you disagree with? If so, why did you do that? Do you even know what you believe or are you just here to start arguments?
 
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#90,288
#90,288
Sea Ray said:
The CNN source you post a few minutes earlier said:



Make up your mind. Based on CNN we'll reach herd immunity by June. I think that's a reasonable prediction. How 'bout you? Do you agree with CNN or did you present a source that you disagree with? If so, why did you do that? Do you even know what you believe or are you just here to start arguments?
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If we're at 83 million cases and the vaccine gets us to 100 million, that still means we're less than 1/3 protected as a nation (about 330 million population). We need to get to 75% before we can really talk about herd immunity. That's a long ways to go.
 
#90,289
#90,289
evillawyer said:
If we're at 83 million cases and the vaccine gets us to 100 million, that still means we're less than 1/3 protected as a nation (about 330 million population). We need to get to 75% before we can really talk about herd immunity. That's a long ways to go.
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Your math is off again, counselor.
 
#90,291
#90,291
evillawyer said:
If we're at 83 million cases and the vaccine gets us to 100 million, that still means we're less than 1/3 protected as a nation (about 330 million population). We need to get to 75% before we can really talk about herd immunity. That's a long ways to go.
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That's 83 million as of Jan 1st. We're talking about June. You didn't answer my question counselor.

Do you agree with the CNN article that you entered into discussion, that we'd reach herd immunity in June?
 
#90,292
#90,292
Sea Ray said:
That's 83 million as of Jan 1st. We're talking about June. You didn't answer my question counselor.

Do you agree with the CNN article that you entered into discussion, that we'd reach herd immunity in June?
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If those assumptions (about the number of unknown infections, estimated vaccine rollout and minimal threshold for herd immunity to kick in) hold true, then they're probably right. But that doesn't answer whether the drop that we're currently seeing is the result of herd immunity. That's the issue being discussed. But thanks for playing, and do try to keep up.
 
#90,294
#90,294
One thing being overlooked in this discussion is that there is quite obviously a large percentage of the population with cross-protection/background immunity (most likely via memory T cells activated by similar CVs in the past). See: many families only have one or two affected members, while the others remain well, despite the closest of contact (mine would be a prime example).

Early on, I saw estimates that as much as 50% of some populations might be protected, but that's a very difficult thing to measure.

Once added into the equation, combined with seroprevalence estimates, it very easily explains the phenomenon being seen all around the country.
 
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#90,296
#90,296
Something I thought of. My 13 year old has to have a COVID test today for surgery Friday. How many test are being run each day on non sick people just so they can have something done.
 
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#90,297
#90,297
RollinVol said:
Something I thought of. My 13 year old has to have a COVID test today for surgery Friday. How many test are being run each day on non sick people just so they can have something done.
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My 9yo was in the hospital last week and also had to get a test. No symptoms, just protocol
 
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#90,298
#90,298
MG1968 said:
Over 70 million vaccinations have been administered. 83 + 70 = 153. Not 100.
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7.5% of Americans have received both doses. Some portion of those already had the virus, say 20%. So take that down to 6%. 6% of the US population is about 20 million. 20 million plus 83 is just over 100 million. Also, some of those who got it last March would now have low levels of antibodies.

How Is The COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign Going In Your State?
 
#90,300
#90,300
evillawyer said:
7.5% of Americans have received both doses. Some portion of those already had the virus, say 20%. So take that down to 6%. 6% of the US population is about 20 million. 20 million plus 83 is just over 100 million. Also, some of those who got it last March would now have low levels of antibodies.

How Is The COVID-19 Vaccination Campaign Going In Your State?
Click to expand...

What you are missing is that herd immunity effects occur prior to true herd immunity. The reproduction rate goes down as a single carrier comes into contact with the same # of people where 1/2 half immunity vs a small percentage.

True herd immunity means the reproduction rate goes down to almost zero.

You are also missing that the current number of Covid survivors and fully vaccinated includes those most vulnerable to bad consequences so those left to contract the virus are more likely to be asymptomatic (thus we aren't capturing them in the data) or not likely to suffer life threatening consequences. Remember the original goal of the prevention measures was to prevent overloading of the HC system.

Finally, data suggests that children are less likely to contract and transmit the virus so using the total US population as the target for "herd immunity effects" ignores that it can occur based on a lower number (say 70% of 250 million)
 
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