Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,326
#90,326
evillawyer said:
The 1918 pandemic had waves. This virus has waves. Just because you're coming down from a wave doesn't mean you're coming down because you've reached herd immunity. Look at what NYC looked like in June and July (New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count). It looked fantastic and was the envy of the nation. Was that the effect of herd immunity given what happened in the fall? No, if NYC had been approaching herd immunity in June and July the daily case counts would have continued to decline as the virus ran out of available hosts. But surprise surprise, the fall came and NYC didn't quite have the herd immunity many had speculated it was approaching. There were lots of possible hosts that didn't have immunity and they got infected. Many died. And transmission rates are still high. If NYC were approaching herd immunity, we'd be running out of hosts pretty quickly. That's not happened yet.

So what is kiddiedocs evidence for this time being different, especially given the lower antibody and vaccination rates in other parts of the country.
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transmission rates are high relative to what? other parts of the country? last Spring?
 
#90,327
#90,327
evillawyer said:
And by the way, it looks like several of the southern states have bottomed out from the last wave and are already starting to show a very minor third wave developing, which is consistent with what Europe is seeing:

Texas Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Mississippi Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Louisiana Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Arkansas Coronavirus Map and Case Count
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Holy cow talk about data not supporting your argument. All I could open was Texas behind pay walls on the rest. However it supports what I’ve been saying we are in a continual case decline and decreasing hospitalization. Texas isn’t the example you want for your broke back diatribe
 
#90,328
#90,328
volinbham said:
transmission rates are high relative to what? other parts of the country? last Spring?
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NYC had daily positivity rates below 1% at times over the summer. They got up to over 10% during the latest wave. Many neighborhoods--mostly those hardest hit in the Spring--saw daily positivity rates exceed 15%. None of this is indicative of being sufficiently close to herd immunity to see the virus burn out on its own.
 
#90,329
#90,329
evillawyer said:
NYC had daily positivity rates below 1% at times over the summer. They got up to over 10% during the latest wave. Many neighborhoods--mostly those hardest hit in the Spring--saw daily positivity rates exceed 15%. None of this is indicative of being sufficiently close to herd immunity to see the virus burn out on its own.
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What is your Governor and mayor doing to address the stubborn decline or lack there of? Twice I’ve asked that now. Because my mayor and Governor are doing a great job.
 
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#90,331
#90,331
NorthDallas40 said:
Holy cow talk about data not supporting your argument. All I could open was Texas behind pay walls on the rest. However it supports what I’ve been saying we are in a continual case decline and decreasing hospitalization. Texas isn’t the example you want for your broke back diatribe
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The chart shows Texas cases bottoming out around the February 20th and rising thereafter. Some of this could be due to testing issues during the storm. But other states without those issues are also showing increasing cases. All of the ones I linked are showing the start of a minor third wave, which is, as I said, fully consistent with what's being observed in Europe:

France Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Germany Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Italy Coronavirus Map and Case Count
 
#90,332
#90,332
evillawyer said:
NYC had daily positivity rates below 1% at times over the summer. They got up to over 10% during the latest wave. Many neighborhoods--mostly those hardest hit in the Spring--saw daily positivity rates exceed 15%. None of this is indicative of being sufficiently close to herd immunity to see the virus burn out on its own.
Click to expand...

I haven't claimed we are at herd immunity - instead I'm explaining why our approaching it is slowing the impact and reproduction rate which is exactly what we are seeing.

Another way to look at it; when % of the population with immunity is low (e.g last Spring) the effects of a lock down will have a more dramatic impact than when the % of the population with immunity is substantial.

If this were not the case then the next wave would be massively larger since the total number of people currently with cases (considerably higher than last Spring) would infect at the same rate as last Spring but of course that isn't happening because the number of potential hosts per encounter is shrinking.

this third "very minor" wave you keep referencing (actually it would be a 4th wave) will be (assuming it happens) "very minor" precisely because of the growing immunity of the population.
 
#90,333
#90,333
evillawyer said:
NYC had daily positivity rates below 1% at times over the summer. They got up to over 10% during the latest wave. Many neighborhoods--mostly those hardest hit in the Spring--saw daily positivity rates exceed 15%. None of this is indicative of being sufficiently close to herd immunity to see the virus burn out on its own.
Click to expand...

I'll also add (as others have pointed out) the New York and NYC have been the most volatile areas of the country - large ups and downs while the change in rates else where has been less volatile. Their experience (and maybe New Jersey) have been outliers in terms of volatility.
 
#90,334
#90,334
volinbham said:
I haven't claimed we are at herd immunity - instead I'm explaining why our approaching it is slowing the impact and reproduction rate which is exactly what we are seeing.

Another way to look at it; when % of the population with immunity is low (e.g last Spring) the effects of a lock down will have a more dramatic impact than when the % of the population with immunity is substantial.

If this were not the case then the next wave would be massively larger since the total number of people currently with cases would infect at the same rate as last Spring but of course that isn't happening because the number of potential hosts per encounter is shrinking.

this third "very minor" wave you keep referencing (actually it would be a 4th wave) will be (assuming it happens) "very minor" precisely because of the growing immunity of the population.
Click to expand...

Sure smarty, just wait until that 5th wave!
 
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#90,335
#90,335
evillawyer said:
The chart shows Texas cases bottoming out around the February 20th and rising thereafter. Some of this could be due to testing issues during the storm. But other states without those issues are also showing increasing cases. All of the ones I linked are showing the start of a minor third wave, which is, as I said, fully consistent with what's being observed in Europe:

France Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Germany Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Italy Coronavirus Map and Case Count
Click to expand...
In Texas we are looking at the same data and feel we are not bottoming out. In fact there is discussion of lifting all state mandated restrictions. You’re reaching and not connecting sister.
 
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#90,337
#90,337
evillawyer said:
NYC had daily positivity rates below 1% at times over the summer. They got up to over 10% during the latest wave. Many neighborhoods--mostly those hardest hit in the Spring--saw daily positivity rates exceed 15%. None of this is indicative of being sufficiently close to herd immunity to see the virus burn out on its own.
Click to expand...
Virginia's positivity in January was at about 15%, today it's at 7.2% overall daily cases are down almost 90% since the worst day which was January 8th. Cases in Virginia are down 88% since January
 
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#90,338
#90,338
volinbham said:
I'll also add (as others have pointed out) the New York and NYC have been the most volatile areas of the country - large ups and downs while the change in rates else where has been less volatile. Their experience (and maybe New Jersey) have been outliers in terms of volatility.
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I do think NYC will be one of the last areas to achieve herd immunity because they stayed locked down for so long. They just opened up their restaurants in mid Feb. Lockdowns are counterintuitive to herd immunity
 
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#90,339
#90,339
Some other info about using New York - while death from Covid per capita in NY is the second highest in the country the % of the population with confirmed cases of Covid is in the 4th quintile - 30 states have a higher proportion of people who've had it and thus higher levels of immunity.
 
#90,341
#90,341
evillawyer said:
The chart shows Texas cases bottoming out around the February 20th and rising thereafter. Some of this could be due to testing issues during the storm. But other states without those issues are also showing increasing cases. All of the ones I linked are showing the start of a minor third wave, which is, as I said, fully consistent with what's being observed in Europe:

France Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Germany Coronavirus Map and Case Count

Italy Coronavirus Map and Case Count
Click to expand...

It stands to reason that Europe will lag behind the USA in herd immunity because we've had more cases here and we're also immunizing more folks. Don't lose sight of the fact that high C19 positives is a good thing in terms of herd immunity. In an ideal world we'd have huge C19 numbers and miniscule deaths. If we'd failed at producing a vaccine, large C19 positive rates would be the only way to get past this
 
#90,342
#90,342
volinbham said:
Some other info about using New York - while death from Covid per capita in NY is the second highest in the country the % of the population with confirmed cases of Covid is in the 4th quintile - 30 states have a higher proportion of people who've had it and thus higher levels of immunity.
Click to expand...

Many NYC cases occured prior to the wide availability of testing. During the first wave very few people were being tested. That's why it's important to look at the percentage of people testing positive for antibodies. Every age group in NYC tests out at above 30%.
 
#90,343
#90,343
Sea Ray said:
Do it! ...and set a good example for the rest of us
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What I expect to happen is Governor Abbott to lift the state wide mandated restrictions and stress that each county or metropolitan area needs to manage their risk at the local level. What works for the DFW metropolitan area which is high population density doesn’t work for typical rural Texas.

And that’s exactly what he should do. Ft Worth has already said if the state mandates are removed they will follow suite. Dallas has indicated they aren’t inclined to do so right now.
 
#90,345
#90,345
Someone was bragging on here the other day how much better Va was doing than Tn. Tn was up on per capital deaths like 2 to 1. Well about a week later and it has shrunk to 8 to 5. Va is consistently posting a 100 more deaths a day than TN. Today is was Va 231 and TN 10. Masks, huh?
 
#90,347
#90,347
Argentina: Thousands Protest Socialists Secretly Vaccinating Government ‘VIPs’

Thousands of protesters took the streets of multiple cities in Argentina this weekend to protest what is increasingly being referred to as the “VIP vaccination” scandal, in which the government of socialist President Alberto Fernández reportedly vaccinated dozens of ineligible people with friends in the administration.
https://media.breitbart.com/media/2021/03/GettyImages-1231421642.jpg
Argentine Health Minister Gines González García resigned last week after local media revealed that as many as 70 people secretly received vaccinations against the Chinese coronavirus, some of them as young as 27 years old and without health preconditions that would necessitate urgent vaccination.

Argentina: Thousands Protest Socialists Secretly Vaccinating Government 'VIPs'
 
#90,348
#90,348
evillawyer said:
Many NYC cases occured prior to the wide availability of testing. During the first wave very few people were being tested. That's why it's important to look at the percentage of people testing positive for antibodies. Every age group in NYC tests out at above 30%.
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but if you look at both the pattern of cases and the amount of testing you reach the conclusion that NY actually has lower immunity in the population.

Comparing them to FL - NY has 86,600 cases per 1 million while FL has 89,000. However, NY has conducted 1.97 million tests to establish that confirmed case rate while FL is about half that 1.01 million. So NY has fewer cases but tested more people indicating they are capturing more cases in their population than FL is. If FL had tested like NY then you might see them at 180,000 cases per million (confirmed).

NY's experience was a high first wave and very low (about the lowest and longest) trough and a major second wave. Most other states have milder peaks and valleys but more total % of the population cases and thus higher levels of immunity. The long, low trough of NY just meant that immunity was not being established there while it was elsewhere.

So FL which has fully vaccinated a higher % of it's population and that has a higher % of it's population with prior Covid immunity is closer to true herd immunity than NY.

As a side note, FL is not only closer to herd immunity than NY but a considerably smaller proportion of it's population died from it and all this was accomplished without the economic and societal (including school closings) damage that NY inflicted.
 
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#90,350
#90,350
volinbham said:
but if you look at both the pattern of cases and the amount of testing you reach the conclusion that NY actually has lower immunity in the population.

Comparing them to FL - NY has 86,600 cases per 1 million while FL has 89,000. However, NY has conducted 1.97 million tests to establish that confirmed case rate while FL is about half that 1.01 million. So NY has fewer cases but tested more people indicating they are capturing more cases in their population than FL is. If FL had tested like NY then you might see them at 180,000 cases per million (confirmed).

NY's experience was a high first wave and very low (about the lowest and longest) trough and a major second wave. Most other states have milder peaks and valleys but more total % of the population cases and thus higher levels of immunity. The long, low trough of NY just meant that immunity was not being established there while it was elsewhere.

So FL which has fully vaccinated a higher % of it's population and that has a higher % of it's population with prior Covid immunity is closer to true herd immunity than NY.

As a side note, FL is not only closer to herd immunity than NY but a considerably smaller proportion of it's population died from it and all this was accomplished without the economic and societal (including school closings) damage that NY inflicted.
Click to expand...

Any data on what florida is showing for antibody prevalence
 
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