Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,301
#90,301
It’s standard protocol to inform the surgery center and staff. It makes sense. I had the same thing done last fall for shoulder surgery.
RollinVol said:
Something I thought of. My 13 year old has to have a COVID test today for surgery Friday. How many test are being run each day on non sick people just so they can have something done.
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utvolpj said:
My 9yo was in the hospital last week and also had to get a test. No symptoms, just protocol
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#90,302
#90,302
evillawyer said:
If those assumptions (about the number of unknown infections, estimated vaccine rollout and minimal threshold for herd immunity to kick in) hold true, then they're probably right. But that doesn't answer whether the drop that we're currently seeing is the result of herd immunity. That's the issue being discussed. But thanks for playing, and do try to keep up.
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Herd immunity won't happen overnight. It'll start with lowering overall numbers, which we're seeing right now
 
#90,303
#90,303
Sea Ray said:
Herd immunity won't happen overnight. It'll start with lowering overall numbers, which we're seeing right now
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Compare today



To one month ago



New hospitalizations have gone up (I look at new hospitalizations as the real barometer because the amount of testing varies so much).

All of February has been between 190-300 new admissions per day. 9% of the city's population is now vaccinated too. These numbers do not show the effect of a nearing herd immunity yet.

Edit: NYC is now 11% vaccinated
Coronavirus in New York City
 
Last edited:
#90,304
#90,304
evillawyer said:
Compare today



To one month ago



New hospitalizations have gone up (I look at new hospitalizations as the real barometer because the amount of testing varies so much).

All of February has been between 190-300 new admissions per day. 9% of the city's population is now vaccinated too. These numbers do not show the effect of a nearing herd immunity yet.

Edit: NYC is now 11% vaccinated
Coronavirus in New York City
Click to expand...


In January the state of NY had between 11,200 and 17K cases per day

New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count

They're down to 7800 now. At that rate they'll be sittin' pretty by June
 
#90,305
#90,305
evillawyer said:
Compare today



To one month ago



New hospitalizations have gone up (I look at new hospitalizations as the real barometer because the amount of testing varies so much).

All of February has been between 190-300 new admissions per day. 9% of the city's population is now vaccinated too. These numbers do not show the effect of a nearing herd immunity yet.

Edit: NYC is now 11% vaccinated
Coronavirus in New York City
Click to expand...

What is your state and local city government doing to address the issue sister? How are the officials with the most direct impact on the situation adapting to address the increasing rate? How have they modified their strategy?

Because... in my state it damn sure looks like my state and local officials are doing a damn good job.
 
#90,307
#90,307
evillawyer said:
Compare today



To one month ago



New hospitalizations have gone up (I look at new hospitalizations as the real barometer because the amount of testing varies so much).

All of February has been between 190-300 new admissions per day. 9% of the city's population is now vaccinated too. These numbers do not show the effect of a nearing herd immunity yet.

Edit: NYC is now 11% vaccinated
Coronavirus in New York City
Click to expand...

Unless you live in NYC why are you so hellbent on using it as an example?
 
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#90,310
#90,310
A simple example. If I'm Covid positive and I come into contact with 10 people who are not immune I can pass Covid to all 10. Each of them could then pass it to 10 more and now we are at 111 cases. If however 40% are immune I can only pass it to 6 and each of them can pass it to 6 more. That puts us at 43 cases (a drop of over half). It's nuts to say that drops in cases have nothing to do with the growing immunity within the country. Herd immunity works when the immunity is so high there are few to pass the virus to and eventually it has negligible impact (reproduction rate near zero) but moving towards it also dramatically slows the new case growth.
 
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#90,311
#90,311
volinbham said:
A simple example. If I'm Covid positive and I come into contact with 10 people who are not immune I can pass Covid to all 10. Each of them could then pass it to 10 more and now we are at 111 cases. If however 40% are immune I can only pass it to 6 and each of them can pass it to 6 more. That puts us at 43 cases (a drop of over half). It's nuts to say that drops in cases have nothing to do with the growing immunity within the country. Herd immunity works when the immunity is so high there are few to pass the virus to and eventually it has negligible impact (reproduction rate near zero) but moving towards it also dramatically slows the new case growth.
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Now do that math assuming that maybe 2-5 of them are not susceptible in the first place. That's about where we are in the U.S. now.
 
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#90,312
#90,312
volinbham said:
A simple example. If I'm Covid positive and I come into contact with 10 people who are not immune I can pass Covid to all 10. Each of them could then pass it to 10 more and now we are at 111 cases. If however 40% are immune I can only pass it to 6 and each of them can pass it to 6 more. That puts us at 43 cases (a drop of over half). It's nuts to say that drops in cases have nothing to do with the growing immunity within the country. Herd immunity works when the immunity is so high there are few to pass the virus to and eventually it has negligible impact (reproduction rate near zero) but moving towards it also dramatically slows the new case growth.
Click to expand...

K town rate was 0.09% today. Seems to be working.
 
#90,313
#90,313
MG1968 said:
Unless you live in NYC why are you so hellbent on using it as an example?
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Because it is a strong counterexample to the theory that the current drop in cases can be attributed to approaching herd immunity. By this line of reasoning, the more hard hit/vaccinated the area is (and NYC is both hard hit and highly vaccinated compared to it's peers), the more it should be showing the effects of herd immunity. NYC has been harder hit than just about anywhere else (especially certain neighborhoods) and is 11% vaccinated (which is high), but instead of showing a faster dropoff from the recent surge, NYC is showing a very slow decline, with positivity rates higher than most other parts of the country. If the herd immunity theory isn't true in NYC, there's good reason to believe it is also not explaining the drops we see elsewhere because those other areas (1) have a smaller percentage of people who would have the natural antibodies, and (2) a lower vaccination rate.
 
#90,314
#90,314
evillawyer said:
Because it is a strong counterexample to the theory that the current drop in cases can be attributed to approaching herd immunity. By this line of reasoning, the more hard hit/vaccinated the area is (and NYC is both hard hit and highly vaccinated compared to it's peers), the more it should be showing the effects of herd immunity. NYC has been harder hit than just about anywhere else (especially certain neighborhoods) and is 11% vaccinated (which is high), but instead of showing a faster dropoff from the recent surge, NYC is showing a very slow decline, with positivity rates higher than most other parts of the country. If the herd immunity theory isn't true in NYC, there's good reason to believe it is also not explaining the drops we see elsewhere because those other areas (1) have a smaller percentage of people who would have the natural antibodies, and (2) a lower vaccination rate.
Click to expand...

Data on NYC - last 7 day average down from last 4 weeks weekly average.
 

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#90,315
#90,315
evillawyer said:
Because it is a strong counterexample to the theory that the current drop in cases can be attributed to approaching herd immunity. By this line of reasoning, the more hard hit/vaccinated the area is (and NYC is both hard hit and highly vaccinated compared to it's peers), the more it should be showing the effects of herd immunity. NYC has been harder hit than just about anywhere else (especially certain neighborhoods) and is 11% vaccinated (which is high), but instead of showing a faster dropoff from the recent surge, NYC is showing a very slow decline, with positivity rates higher than most other parts of the country. If the herd immunity theory isn't true in NYC, there's good reason to believe it is also not explaining the drops we see elsewhere because those other areas (1) have a smaller percentage of people who would have the natural antibodies, and (2) a lower vaccination rate.
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So the improvement shown in the rest of the country is irrelevant because NYC isn’t improving fast enough for you?
 
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#90,317
#90,317
evillawyer said:
Because it is a strong counterexample to the theory that the current drop in cases can be attributed to approaching herd immunity. By this line of reasoning, the more hard hit/vaccinated the area is (and NYC is both hard hit and highly vaccinated compared to it's peers), the more it should be showing the effects of herd immunity. NYC has been harder hit than just about anywhere else (especially certain neighborhoods) and is 11% vaccinated (which is high), but instead of showing a faster dropoff from the recent surge, NYC is showing a very slow decline, with positivity rates higher than most other parts of the country. If the herd immunity theory isn't true in NYC, there's good reason to believe it is also not explaining the drops we see elsewhere because those other areas (1) have a smaller percentage of people who would have the natural antibodies, and (2) a lower vaccination rate.
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Then, please enlighten us all as to why you think everywhere else has seen a precipitous decline over the past two months. I even gave you a multiple choice, several pages back.
 
#90,318
#90,318
utvolpj said:
In statistics they always use the outlier. It's clearly the best way to demonstrate a trend
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This is very simple. A theory has to explain the data. If it doesn't, it needs to be modified or rejected. If the nation were showing signs of approaching herd immunity as a whole, then the particular parts of the nation that were hardest hit AND highly vaccinated should be the most protected and therefore should be strongly corroborating that theory, as they are the parts closest to reaching herd immunity. NYC is doing the opposite. If NYC, with it's higher antibody prevalence and vaccination rate, doesn't corroborate your theory, it's probably bunk.

Kiddie doc did the same song and dance over the summer that he's doing now. He claimed then--over 350000 dead bodies ago--that NYC and other hard hit areas were approaching herd immunity. That was false, as demonstrated by this fall's second wave. Would NYC have been worse this fall without the protection acquired during the first wave? Yes. But does that show we're "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of it? No. We're a long ways off still (best case, probably 1/2 to 3/5 of the way there). There will probably be a third, much more minor wave similar to what we're seeing now in Italy, France, Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.
 
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#90,319
#90,319
evillawyer said:
This is very simple. A theory has to explain the data. If it doesn't, it needs to be modified or rejected. If the nation were showing signs of approaching herd immunity as a whole, then the particular parts of the nation that were hardest hit AND highly vaccinated should be the most protected and therefore should be strongly corroborating that theory, as they are the parts closest to reaching herd immunity. NYC is doing the opposite. If NYC, with it's higher antibody prevalence and vaccination rate, doesn't corroborate your theory, it's probably bunk.

Kiddie doc did the same song and dance over the summer that he's doing now. He claimed then--over 350000 dead bodies ago--that NYC and other hard hit areas were approaching herd immunity. That was false, as demonstrated by this fall's second wave. Would NYC have been worse this fall without the protection acquired during the first wave? Yes. But does that show we're "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of it? No. We're a long ways off still (best case, probably 1/2 to 3/5 of the way there). There will probably be a third, much more minor wave similar to what we're seeing now in Italy, France, Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.
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Is there any place besides the ridiculously unique NYC experiencing this? That's why your insistence to use NYC is puzzling but not unexpected. It seems that's really all you have left
 
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#90,320
#90,320
utvolpj said:
Is there any place besides the ridiculously unique NYC experiencing this? That's why your insistence to use NYC is puzzling but not unexpected. It seems that's really all you have left
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Strange theory you got going there. In the summer NYC was used as the primary evidence for an approaching herd immunity and now the argument is you don't need to consider it because it's an outlier. Cool stuff! And totally valid science!
 
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#90,322
#90,322
evillawyer said:
Strange theory you got going there. In the summer NYC was used as the primary evidence for an approaching herd immunity and now the argument is you don't need to consider it because it's an outlier. Cool stuff! And totally valid science!
Click to expand...
It is an outlier unless you can cite others around the country experiencing the same. NYC does not have a comparable living experience to anywhere else. NYC is also horribly mismanaged. You're using it to fit your conclusion which is backwards
 
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#90,323
#90,323
evillawyer said:
This is very simple. A theory has to explain the data. If it doesn't, it needs to be modified or rejected. If the nation were showing signs of approaching herd immunity as a whole, then the particular parts of the nation that were hardest hit AND highly vaccinated should be the most protected and therefore should be strongly corroborating that theory, as they are the parts closest to reaching herd immunity. NYC is doing the opposite. If NYC, with it's higher antibody prevalence and vaccination rate, doesn't corroborate your theory, it's probably bunk.

Kiddie doc did the same song and dance over the summer that he's doing now. He claimed then--over 350000 dead bodies ago--that NYC and other hard hit areas were approaching herd immunity. That was false, as demonstrated by this fall's second wave. Would NYC have been worse this fall without the protection acquired during the first wave? Yes. But does that show we're "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of it? No. We're a long ways off still (best case, probably 1/2 to 3/5 of the way there). There will probably be a third, much more minor wave similar to what we're seeing now in Italy, France, Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.
Click to expand...

1. the impact of approaching herd immunity (eg. an ever increasing # of people gaining immunity) is certainly consistent with the drop in cases we see in NYC. Your beef seems to be the drop is not fast enough but of course there are other factors at play (eg. population density) and a theory doesn't need to have 100% explanatory power to avoid rejection.
2. rejection of theories that do show some explanatory power generally requires a plausible alternate theory with greater explanatory power. you fail to provide such a theory.
3. 1/2 to 3/5s of the way to herd immunity still exhibits the power of growing immunity on the rate of spread so even using your SWAG number the theory is not rejected.
4. a third "much more minor" wave doesn't invalidate the theory either as no one has ever claimed the relationship is perfectly linear and fully explained by the growing rate of immunity. Even at immunity of zero percent you would have waves.
 
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#90,324
#90,324
utvolpj said:
It is an outlier unless you can cite others around the country experiencing the same. NYC does not have a comparable living experience to anywhere else. NYC is also horribly mismanaged. You're using it to fit your conclusion which is backwards
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The 1918 pandemic had waves. This virus has waves. Just because you're coming down from a wave doesn't mean you're coming down because you've reached herd immunity. Look at what NYC looked like in June and July (New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count New York Coronavirus Map and Case Count). It looked fantastic and was the envy of the nation. Was that the effect of herd immunity given what happened in the fall? No, if NYC had been approaching herd immunity in June and July the daily case counts would have continued to decline as the virus ran out of available hosts. But surprise surprise, the fall came and NYC didn't quite have the herd immunity many had speculated it was approaching. There were lots of possible hosts that didn't have immunity and they got infected. Many died. And transmission rates are still high. If NYC were approaching herd immunity, we'd be running out of hosts pretty quickly. That's not happened yet.

So what is kiddiedocs evidence for this time being different, especially given the lower antibody and vaccination rates in other parts of the country.
 
#90,325
#90,325
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