Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,351
#90,351
GSD82 said:
Hypocrites
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Yeah but they have tenure. The arrogance is staggering. He even wore his union jacket.

iu
 
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#90,353
#90,353
volinbham said:
haven't seen it but doing 2x as much testing is bound to bump up your reported case #s no?
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Not necessarily. Testing in NY did not really happen until after the first wave had crested and even then it was fairly limited. That's why antibody testing would be the real apples to apples comparison. By the time Florida was really getting hit testing was much more prevalent.
 
#90,354
#90,354
FYI - just got notice that my university will remove the social distancing requirement for Fall classes. We've been live in person since last Fall but with a 6 foot rule which limited class capacity.

In case you didn't know my university is a world class medical/healthcare university that has been dedicated to evidence-based decisions with regard to teaching.
 
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#90,355
#90,355
evillawyer said:
Not necessarily. Testing in NY did not really happen until after the first wave had crested and even then it was fairly limited. That's why antibody testing would be the real apples to apples comparison. By the time Florida was really getting hit testing was much more prevalent.
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this reinforces my point - the bulk of NY testing is recent so the "not fast enough" decline in cases can be at least partially explained by massive testing regime.

it also reinforces why NY and NYC as the exemplar to draw larger conclusions is flawed. it is probably the biggest outlier of all locations in the US save for it's close neighbor New Jersey.
 
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#90,358
#90,358
volinbham said:
FYI - just got notice that my university will remove the social distancing requirement for Fall classes. We've been live in person since last Fall but with a 6 foot rule which limited class capacity.

In case you didn't know my university is a world class medical/healthcare university that has been dedicated to evidence-based decisions with regard to teaching.
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So run by cavemen trumptards, got it.
 
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#90,359
#90,359
volinbham said:
this reinforces my point - the bulk of NY testing is recent so the "not fast enough" decline in cases can be at least partially explained by massive testing regime.

it also reinforces why NY and NYC as the exemplar to draw larger conclusions is flawed. it is probably the biggest outlier of all locations in the US save for it's close neighbor New Jersey.
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But my point is that comparing NY testing (which didn't start in earnest until the first wave had peaked and largely dissipated) to Florida testing is not an apples to apples comparison. Lots of testing has been done in New York post-first wave, but testing totals largely missed the cases in the first wave since there was so little testing going on. The number of hospitalizations--which is really the touchstone, not case positivity rate--during the first wave in NYC was substantially higher than during the second wave, despite a much larger number of people testing positive during the second wave. I can't find any recent info on Florida antibody positivity rate, but in late May it was only 4 percent. Again, NYC is over 30% now, and the harder hit neighborhoods have tested at close to 50%. I have a hard time believing that Florida has yet surpassed NYC for antibody positivity rate.
 
#90,360
#90,360
VolStrom said:
Oh No! we're all gonna die.
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No, this is just part of the ongoing discussion of whether we're seeing the start of herd immunity appear. I've been arguing no, others have been arguing yes. Rising cases is a data point that supports my argument.
 
#90,364
#90,364
evillawyer said:
This is very simple. A theory has to explain the data. If it doesn't, it needs to be modified or rejected. If the nation were showing signs of approaching herd immunity as a whole, then the particular parts of the nation that were hardest hit AND highly vaccinated should be the most protected and therefore should be strongly corroborating that theory, as they are the parts closest to reaching herd immunity. NYC is doing the opposite. If NYC, with it's higher antibody prevalence and vaccination rate, doesn't corroborate your theory, it's probably bunk.

Kiddie doc did the same song and dance over the summer that he's doing now. He claimed then--over 350000 dead bodies ago--that NYC and other hard hit areas were approaching herd immunity. That was false, as demonstrated by this fall's second wave. Would NYC have been worse this fall without the protection acquired during the first wave? Yes. But does that show we're "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of it? No. We're a long ways off still (best case, probably 1/2 to 3/5 of the way there). There will probably be a third, much more minor wave similar to what we're seeing now in Italy, France, Austria, Germany, the Netherlands, etc.
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Still more people in a smaller place than the rest of the country.

Also proves your lock downs dont help. And maybe make things worse.

And it's amazing you are actually trying to make the outlier argument. 95% of the country is just an anomaly. It's only the 5% that fits my agenda that can be trusted by my science.
 
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#90,365
#90,365
evillawyer said:
But my point is that comparing NY testing (which didn't start in earnest until the first wave had peaked and largely dissipated) to Florida testing is not an apples to apples comparison. Lots of testing has been done in New York post-first wave, but testing totals largely missed the cases in the first wave since there was so little testing going on. The number of hospitalizations--which is really the touchstone, not case positivity rate--during the first wave in NYC was substantially higher than during the second wave, despite a much larger number of people testing positive during the second wave. I can't find any recent info on Florida antibody positivity rate, but in late May it was only 4 percent. Again, NYC is over 30% now, and the harder hit neighborhoods have tested at close to 50%. I have a hard time believing that Florida has yet surpassed NYC for antibody positivity rate.
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Comparing NYC to anything else is not apples to apples - that's what we've been telling you but your entire argument is built around what you perceive is happening in NYC.
 
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#90,368
#90,368
evillawyer said:
No, this is just part of the ongoing discussion of whether we're seeing the start of herd immunity appear. I've been arguing no, others have been arguing yes. Rising cases is a data point that supports my argument.
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It neither supports nor refutes your argument. There is simply not enough data in this "bump" to draw any conclusions.
 
#90,370
#90,370
volinbham said:
Comparing NYC to anything else is not apples to apples - that's what we've been telling you but your entire argument is built around what you perceive is happening in NYC.
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NY was the gold standard. Big Andy has an Emmy to prove it... and all those celebrity endorsements....
 
#90,373
#90,373
evillawyer said:
But my point is that comparing NY testing (which didn't start in earnest until the first wave had peaked and largely dissipated) to Florida testing is not an apples to apples comparison. Lots of testing has been done in New York post-first wave, but testing totals largely missed the cases in the first wave since there was so little testing going on. The number of hospitalizations--which is really the touchstone, not case positivity rate--during the first wave in NYC was substantially higher than during the second wave, despite a much larger number of people testing positive during the second wave. I can't find any recent info on Florida antibody positivity rate, but in late May it was only 4 percent. Again, NYC is over 30% now, and the harder hit neighborhoods have tested at close to 50%. I have a hard time believing that Florida has yet surpassed NYC for antibody positivity rate.
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So let me get this straight - you have neighborhoods in NYC with 50% antibodies (immunity presumably) and another 6% (using your number earlier) vaccinated and you are contending that 56% of a population having immunity is not impacting the spread? Sounds like you think herd immunity is like an on/off switch.
 
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