Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#90,377
#90,377
volinbham said:
So let me get this straight - you have neighborhoods in NYC with 50% antibodies (immunity presumably) and another 6% (using your number earlier) vaccinated and you are contending that 56% of a population having immunity is not impacting the spread? Sounds like you think herd immunity is like an on/off switch.
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Although antibody percentage in certain neighborhoods is high, it's not a random sample, so it's likely not as high as the testing would suggest. But it is nevertheless high. My point is that even in those neighborhoods which should have the most immunity we're still seeing a high degree of community spread. That suggests we have not reached a point in those neighborhoods where COVID is close to burning itself out, which is the touchstone of having reached herd immunity. (And no, I'm not treating herd immunity as an on/off switch. It's a vague concept like baldness. But just because it's vague where the line of demarcation falls, it doesn't follow that we can't say in most cases, yes or no, a neighborhood has herd immunity).

Extrapolating from those neighborhoods, if they are not yet showing signs of reaching herd immunity, it's doubtful that other parts of the country are either.
 
#90,378
#90,378
volinbham said:
It neither supports nor refutes your argument. There is simply not enough data in this "bump" to draw any conclusions.
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It certainly doesn't support the existence of herd immunity. It weakly supports the claim that there's not herd immunity yet.
 
#90,379
#90,379
evillawyer said:
It certainly doesn't support the existence of herd immunity. It weakly supports the claim that there's not herd immunity yet.
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No it doesn't because it is not enough data to determine if it is another wave or just a blip. The case number graphs are full of these variations both on the beginning and end of waves and at all points in between. It's one week of data...
 
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#90,380
#90,380
evillawyer said:
Although antibody percentage in certain neighborhoods is high, it's not a random sample, so it's likely not as high as the testing would suggest. But it is nevertheless high. My point is that even in those neighborhoods which should have the most immunity we're still seeing a high degree of community spread. That suggests we have not reached a point in those neighborhoods where COVID is close to burning itself out, which is the touchstone of having reached herd immunity. (And no, I'm not treating herd immunity as an on/off switch. It's a vague concept like baldness. But just because it's vague where the line of demarcation falls, it doesn't follow that we can't say in most cases, yes or no, a neighborhood has herd immunity).

Extrapolating from those neighborhoods, if they are not yet showing signs of reaching herd immunity, it's doubtful that other parts of the country are either.
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again you miss the point of approaching herd immunity vs true herd immunity

if the approaching very minor wave indeed does materialize you can thank the high levels of immunity for making it majorly less severe than it could be and for not resulting in massive death or hospitalization
 
#90,382
#90,382
Simple question EL - do you believe that when we reach herd immunity we will not see weeks where cases go higher than they were in previous weeks?
 
#90,385
#90,385
Also EL - why isn't NYC showing this "bump" in cases? The data shows a steady decline in case positivity over the last 2 weeks and as I posted earlier all the trends in NYC are down for the last 7 days compared to the weekly average over the prior 4 week period.

Cases are down in the last week 7% compared to the prior 4-week average; Case positivity down 13%; Hospitalizations down 27%. No bump.
 
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#90,386
#90,386
volinbham said:
Also EL - why isn't NYC showing this "bump" in cases? The data shows a steady decline in case positivity over the last 2 weeks and as I posted earlier all the trends in NYC are down for the last 7 days compared to the weekly average over the prior 4 week period.
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Because he/she/it doesn't think that fits the narrative, I doubt you get a response.
 
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#90,387
#90,387
volinbham said:
again you miss the point of approaching herd immunity vs true herd immunity

if the approaching very minor wave indeed does materialize you can thank the high levels of immunity for making it majorly less severe than it could be and for not resulting in massive death or hospitalization
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The issue that sparked this was "what explains the most recent drop in COVID cases?" Some offered as an explanation that we're approaching herd immunity. I take that to mean we're on the cusp or nearing herd immunity and are therefore beginning to see its effects. I don't take it to mean that we're now a mile closer on a thousand mile journey.

I think at this point behavioral actions probably explain more than the virus having fewer possible hosts. And my evidence is that the world over we've seen numerous spikes and then large declines only to be followed by another large spike. Those earlier declines were also explained by purported herd immunity effects. The more likely explanation is that people start to get sick, infect others before they now, the sick then retreat to recover, the healthy take more precautions, and then the problem subsides. People then let their guards down. The virus reasserts itself, and then the same behavioral actions take place again. Each time, more people are getting immunity, which is of course helping stem the tide, but we're nowhere near herd immunity for this virus (defined as 75-80% with protection).
 
#90,388
#90,388
kiddiedoc said:
Due to population and density, New York City is the most unrepresentative area you could analyze to describe the rest of the U.S. (and most of the world, for that matter). As to why there is still appreciable transmission is some neighborhoods, the explanation is simple: not enough people have recovered from infection or received the vaccine to reach that area's HIT. This is not a surprise, at all, as 1) NY has used some of the strictest lockdown measures in the country, and 2) HIT % is higher with a dense population.

There. Now, you do the rest of the country.

There's no reason to argue about this. Let's just enjoy the dramatic improvement and get back to normal life.

I swear: it's like some people actually WANT for everything to remain awful.
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TN reported something like 10 deaths today and 600 active cases..... this thing is almost a wrap
 
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#90,391
#90,391
evillawyer said:
The issue that sparked this was "what explains the most recent drop in COVID cases?" Some offered as an explanation that we're approaching herd immunity. I take that to mean we're on the cusp or nearing herd immunity and are therefore beginning to see its effects. I don't take it to mean that we're now a mile closer on a thousand mile journey.

I think at this point behavioral actions probably explain more than the virus having fewer possible hosts. And my evidence is that the world over we've seen numerous spikes and then large declines only to be followed by another large spike. Those earlier declines were also explained by purported herd immunity effects. The more likely explanation is that people start to get sick, infect others before they now, the sick then retreat to recover, the healthy take more precautions, and then the problem subsides. People then let their guards down. The virus reasserts itself, and then the same behavioral actions take place again. Each time, more people are getting immunity, which is of course helping stem the tide, but we're nowhere near herd immunity for this virus (defined as 75-80% with protection).
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There are numerous factors at play. To say approaching herd immunity isn't one (you called it bunk) simply doesn't match what we see and know. The massive street party in Tuscaloosa didn't cause a major spike (behavioral explanation gone wrong).

Here's a link citing 72% as a likely threshold but again the effects of approaching it still have impact in lessening the spread.

As an aside if 1 week of data is sufficient to support theories then the very minor next wave is not happening in NYC.

EDIT: forgot article link

U.S. could reach herd immunity by late spring - News

Scientists believe 72 percent of the population needs to be either exposed or vaccinated for COVID-19 in order to reach this goal.
 
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#90,394
#90,394
evillawyer said:
The issue that sparked this was "what explains the most recent drop in COVID cases?" Some offered as an explanation that we're approaching herd immunity. I take that to mean we're on the cusp or nearing herd immunity and are therefore beginning to see its effects. I don't take it to mean that we're now a mile closer on a thousand mile journey.

I think at this point behavioral actions probably explain more than the virus having fewer possible hosts. And my evidence is that the world over we've seen numerous spikes and then large declines only to be followed by another large spike. Those earlier declines were also explained by purported herd immunity effects. The more likely explanation is that people start to get sick, infect others before they now, the sick then retreat to recover, the healthy take more precautions, and then the problem subsides. People then let their guards down. The virus reasserts itself, and then the same behavioral actions take place again. Each time, more people are getting immunity, which is of course helping stem the tide, but we're nowhere near herd immunity for this virus (defined as 75-80% with protection).
Click to expand...

Behavioral actions like parking lots be full at sit down restaurants in Knox County. You know, that county that 35 new cases today.
 
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#90,395
#90,395
evillawyer said:
Compare today



To one month ago



New hospitalizations have gone up (I look at new hospitalizations as the real barometer because the amount of testing varies so much).

All of February has been between 190-300 new admissions per day. 9% of the city's population is now vaccinated too. These numbers do not show the effect of a nearing herd immunity yet.

Edit: NYC is now 11% vaccinated
Coronavirus in New York City
Click to expand...


Now if it read NYC is 11% eradicated, then we'd be making real progress.
 
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#90,396
#90,396
volinbham said:
No it doesn't because it is not enough data to determine if it is another wave or just a blip. The case number graphs are full of these variations both on the beginning and end of waves and at all points in between. It's one week of data...
Click to expand...

You are never going to get EL to understand the trend is a superposition of sub trends and that some of those sub trends will be geographically unique. One driver can induce downward direction while another driver can be pushing upwards. You could take small towns and look largely at progression on how many people does one inhabitant see daily, and extrapolate. NYC won't follow that easy projection because of the irregularities - cultural groupings, international travel, public transportation (if, when, and which), and many more; finally population density is a massive driver on top of everything else ... even weather and holiday stress can affect the immune system at an individual more than at a group level. You might even say the typical New Yorker is less susceptible to infection because of proximity to things, or maybe more susceptible because of proximity to things ... and be right both ways.
 
#90,399
#90,399
allvol123 said:
Behavioral actions like parking lots be full at sit down restaurants in Knox County. You know, that county that 35 new cases today.
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I've been to multiple crowded restaurants, you can't get a parking spot at the new bar in Farragut, the Zoo was crawling with people, my son and daughter have been at numerous crowded parties and sporting events, still no mask mandate in Loudon county (or schools), yet "social measures" are responsible for the precipitous decline here? Yeah, that's the answer.

I've spoken with several of my simpleton colleagues (only one of which is a fellow Pediatrician -- they include an immunologist, ER/adult medicine, ENT, Gyn-Onc, and surgery), and we're pretty much all on the same page.

I seriously wonder whether EL either never leaves her house or is just a really dedicated troll. I've got enough going on to worry about it anymore.

I'm finished with this. "Some folks, you just can't reach."
 
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#90,400
#90,400
kiddiedoc said:
I've been to multiple crowded restaurants, you can't get a parking spot at the new bar in Farragut, the Zoo was crawling with people, my son and daughter have been at numerous crowded parties and sporting events, still no mask mandate in Loudon county (or schools), yet "social measures" are responsible for the precipitous decline here? Yeah, that's the answer.

I've spoken with several of my simpleton colleagues (only one of which is a fellow Pediatrician -- they include an immunologist, ER/adult medicine, ENT, Gyn-Onc, and surgery), and we're pretty much all on the same page.

I seriously wonder whether EL either never leaves her house or is just a really dedicated troll. I've got enough going on to worry about it anymore.

I'm finished with this. "Some folks, you just can't reach."
Click to expand...
Honestly, people just like the drama of the situation and want it to continue.
 
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