Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#92,151
#92,151
0nelilreb said:
Stay in your bubble , stay away from me , we will both be happy and I won’t have to worry about you giving me something from NYC that the rest of the country doesn’t have . I don’t blame you one bit for hiding from whatever YUTES guys have up there .
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Indeed. We need a little risk to permeate. Traffic is better. Easier to get a table. Etc.
 
#92,156
#92,156
Volgolfer1618 said:
Miscarriages skyrocket 366% in six weeks due to Covid vaccines

Scary stuff. I guess Gates' plan is working.
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It is important to note that there is no scientific data to suggest that Wuhan coronavirus (Covid-19) injections are safe or effective for pregnant women, and yet doctors and health authorities are still administering the shots to expectant mothers, resulting in many of them losing their unborn children.
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The British government already warned pregnant women that they might not want to take the jab due to “no or limited” data showing its safety or efficacy in pregnant women.
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#92,162
#92,162
volinbham said:
not sure how time works in your world but my comment you quoted was from 4 days ago; not 3 weeks as I suggested.
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Zoom in. I count over 21 bars at approximately the same daily level of hospitalizations. I think that's pretty clearly a plateau. Combine that with the massive vaccination effort that's been undertaken -- especially among those most likely to be hospitalized by COVID -- and it's pretty clear, as I argued previously, NY was not "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of obtaining it. EL 1, Volinbham 0.
 
#92,164
#92,164
evillawyer said:
Zoom in. I count over 21 bars at approximately the same daily level of hospitalizations. I think that's pretty clearly a plateau. Combine that with the massive vaccination effort that's been undertaken -- especially among those most likely to be hospitalized by COVID -- and it's pretty clear, as I argued previously, NY was not "approaching" herd immunity in the sense of being on the cusp of obtaining it. EL 1, Volinbham 0.
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1. the approaching herd immunity comments were meant to explain why Covid cases (and all the complications) have dropped - no one every suggested it means a steady decline to zero (which is indicative of actual herd) immunity. This has been pointed out to you repeatedly yet you ignore it and continue with the fallacy that only a slow steady decline with no inflections is "approaching herd immunity. You are WRONG on this.

2. a week or so of data is not a "plateau"; upon review in a few weeks we can assess an actual trend which is why I recommended a time frame for review which you have ignored. You are WRONG on this.

3. your 21 days is the end of a down trend and the beginning (possibly) of a flat or up trend. You continue to have trouble interpreting data.

4. NYC has seen an increase in cases. NYC is roughly middle of the pack in terms of confirmed cases per capita and NYC experienced a huge spike last year then fully shut down. In effect, NYC artificially prevented the spread of cases and couple that with the population density NYC has consistently shown boom or bust with cases. If there are people to be infected they will be found in NYC more so than just about anywhere in the country. Without the amount of immunity acquired to date in NYC the impact would be much worse. Still, without a longer review period it's hard to say what is real trend and what is blip. Even the scare article you posted recently (from the Hill I believe) labeled this as approaching or possible beginning of a 4th wave. We simply do not have the sustained data to accurately describe the trend.

Why not wait 3 weeks and we'll revisit. If it is indeed a plateau I'll gladly acknowledge it as such.

The GREAT NEWS in the tweet is case positivity at 3.8% - given they were above 6% last week that's a HUGE DOWN TREND!!!!. Oh wait, it's one day's data which tells us nothing.
 
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#92,165
#92,165
More data for EL - NYC hospitalizations are down week vs average over last 4 week average (first chart) and through the last day of reliable data (3/21) the trend was down at least through March 20th (second chart).



Screen Shot 2021-03-31 at 11.57.56 AM.pngScreen Shot 2021-03-31 at 11.59.37 AM.png
 
#92,166
#92,166
The Cuomo tweet data appears to be total # of people in the hospital while the data I posted from the NYC.gov Health site shows new hospitalizations.

Trend data on new hospitalizations is the more revealing # since it shows how cases translate to hospitalizations. Total in the hospital is confounded by length of stay differences.
 
#92,167
#92,167
While I'm thinking about it and to fight the continual strawman; here's the theory on "approaching herd immunity"

What it is saying: the primary factor for the sharp reduction in cases (an accompanying complications) from the Winter wave until now is the level of immunity in the population (however acquired - natural, previous infection, vaccination).

What it is not saying: 1) this is the only reason for the decline, 2) herd immunity has been achieved

What it does not mean:
1) cases will continue a linear drop to zero - that's not how viral spread works
2) all geographic areas will have the same change in cases - again, not how viral spread works and ignores differing levels of other factors that impact spread
3) some areas will not see case growth - case growth can even occur when herd immunity is achieved.
 
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