I don’t think there is going to be a date where “the COVID pandemic is over”. People were warned at the beginning of this that pandemics are measured in seasons and years. I know that’s inconvenient for most, but it’s reality. Always has been.
I would say the simplest goal to set is % vaccinated. Countries are naturally going to try to vaccinate their own, but the goal needs to be worldwide %. Then, once the vaccination % is satisfactory or at least approaching it, monitoring outbreaks and allocating resources to those areas to try and tamp it down would be a priority. This is epidemiologically speaking of course.
Personally, I think we are on the downhill portion of massive danger, as well as on the upswing with study and understanding of the virus. Most things should be 100% open ASAP, although it’s getting harder to find things that aren’t “back to normal.”
So I guess that leads me to a question for you. What metric do you use to measure “normal?” How would you define “over?”
The metric I use to measure normal is the chances of dying. If you are young and healthy the data shows pretty clearly things have been normal for you for almost the entire past year. You might get sick, you might show symptoms, you might get hospitalized...but it isn't any different than any other year with colds, flu, upper respiratory infections, etc... Anecdotally - I had asymptomatic flu and didn't even know it until I got a test with my COVID test, which came back negative.
For the majority of the world life should already be back to 100% normal. Let's be honest too - I don't want anybody to die, but this is what it is. Is everybody wearing a mask going to keep the obese 60 year-old diabetic from dying, if not from COVID than from anything else? Honestly, please, answer that for me. COVID is going to run through the population and it is going to do what it is going to do.
I think we knew enough roughly 6 months into this thing that we could manage it and be back to 100% normal for people in the low risk groups. That means all mandatory restrictions lifted including mask mandates. Mandating an across the board restriction for everybody is and continues to be stupid. Are you old? Are you sick? Are you obese? Do you have comorbid conditions we know are aggravating factors? Then yes - quarantine, wear a mask, and engage in virtual learning for school....be careful and take this very seriously until the herd immunity can be achieved naturally or through vaccinations.
For everyone else depending on age and health - the death risk is no different than the Flu In fact, if you are a healthy child, it is 0%.
At this point, what things are lacking in your life due to covid that you wish you had back?
Flying/traveling without a mask, working without a mask, in person meetings for work, being able to talk to my colleagues and customers face-to-face, normal school days for my child, going to a movie, socialize without distancing...
