Midterm Predictions - 2022

Who Controls the House/Senate after the midterms?

  • Republicans House - Republicans Senate

    Votes: 11 73.3%

  • Republicans House - Democrats Senate

    Votes: 2 13.3%

  • Democrats Senate - Republicans House

    Votes: 1 6.7%

  • Democrats Senate - Democrats House

    Votes: 1 6.7%
  • Total voters
    15
  • Poll closed .
#151
#151
zeppelin128 said:
I naively believed the GOP was finished in national power after 2008 election. Lesson learned.
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Average human memory doesn't last long. Every year there will be a warm spell in early March and Lowes/Home Depot will have people lined up buying plants and veggies. And it isn't people who just moved here.
 
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#152
#152
volinbham said:
about a 5 percentage point move in odds towards R Senate in the last day. Now 59/100 odds (538)

2022 Senate Election Forecast
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That is odd. My guess is that they're adjusting their polls to account for their "error" in 2020 when their polls underestimated Republican votes by about 3 pts. Some polls underestimated Republican votes by even more. I don't know that such an adjustment is scientific. They're showing Herschel at 49.9%...excruciatingly close to avoiding a run off
 
#153
#153
zeppelin128 said:
There is a fast growing populist wing in the GOP that has moved in on that demographic.

I've never been one to believe one election pushes either party off the brink, though. I naively believed the GOP was finished in national power after 2008 election. Lesson learned.
Click to expand...

people thought demographics would perpetually favor the D party but it always comes down to what the party emphasizes and the D party moved away from bread and butter issues to more fringe issues. you'd think Trump winning in the rust belt would have been the wake up call but it wasn't. I have full faith the R party will squander the gains it has made in the Hispanic/Latino population, working class population and even African American population though and the pendulum will continue to swing resulting in every election being THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIMES!
 
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#154
#154
Just stuffed my local ballot box. Brought along Paco and Estoban from Guadalajara to assist. Go Dems. We're stealing another one from you guys!
 
#155
#155
GAVol said:
Something is up. That model was 55/45 Democrat like 2 weeks ago.



EDIT: Just scrolled down and found their forecast over time. They had it 71/29 Democrat just 6 weeks ago!?!
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If I recall correctly I believe the odds in 538 model were like 90D/10R over the summer. The polls this year are all over the place, this is the first time I can remember that I've largely ignored them.
 
#156
#156
allvol123 said:
Hunger is a motivator.
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As it should be, but it makes no difference. The poor and hungry have always existed whether they’ve pulled the lever for a D or an R. One would think that after this long voters would see this 2 party election strategy isn’t working out for anybody but those elected. Government needs a complete overhaul not just another switch of which letter takes control for a bit.
 
#157
#157
T Clifton said:
Average human memory doesn't last long. Every year there will be a warm spell in early March and Lowes/Home Depot will have people lined up buying plants and veggies. And it isn't people who just moved here.
Click to expand...
I always liked the quote about politics that people have the memory of goldfish. You don't really see anyone mentioning the Afghanistan withdrawal as a reason they are voting for Republicans, for instance. It is overwhelmingly pocketbook, kitchen table issues. Even the GOP has sort of transitioned away from culture war stuff the last few weeks to hammering on the economy.
 
#158
#158
volinbham said:
people thought demographics would perpetually favor the D party but it always comes down to what the party emphasizes and the D party moved away from bread and butter issues to more fringe issues. you'd think Trump winning in the rust belt would have been the wake up call but it wasn't. I have full faith the R party will squander the gains it has made in the Hispanic/Latino population, working class population and even African American population though and the pendulum will continue to swing resulting in every election being THE MOST CONSEQUENTIAL ELECTION OF OUR LIFETIMES!
Click to expand...
And around and around we go.
 
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#159
#159
Sea Ray said:
That is odd. My guess is that they're adjusting their polls to account for their "error" in 2020 when their polls underestimated Republican votes by about 3 pts. Some polls underestimated Republican votes by even more. I don't know that such an adjustment is scientific. They're showing Herschel at 49.9%...excruciatingly close to avoiding a run off
Click to expand...

so this version of their prediction is based on polling data, fundraising, past voting patterns (where you get the adjustment) and their experts input. my guess is that while polls haven't moved much recently they are getting more weight since they have less future time to fluctuate. leading into this week polls were still moving a couple points in either direction but now they are set and have likely shown less variance over the last week or so.

the underestimation/overestimation tends to vary by locale. RCP does a good job of showing this - so while some polling in states had a D bias (PA underestimated R voters); others like NV had a R bias (polls underestimated D voters).

the x factor is always turnout. there's a theory that R voters are hidden somewhat from the polls because of public shaming by Biden and company (don't want to say publicly they are voting for an R). If that's true then it will be a very good night for Republicans.
 
#160
#160
zeppelin128 said:
There is a fast growing populist wing in the GOP that has moved in on that demographic.

I've never been one to believe one election pushes either party off the brink, though. I naively believed the GOP was finished in national power after 2008 election. Lesson learned.
Click to expand...

I didn't say they were finished. I just think the democrat party has hitched their wagons to the elite, but their propaganda is geared toward minority groups. There is a shift of that working class voter who used to think democrats were better at dealing with domestic issues. Democrats are a globalist party.
 
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#162
#162
evillawyer said:
Just stuffed my local ballot box. Brought along Paco and Estoban from Guadalajara to assist. Go Dems. We're stealing another one from you guys!
Click to expand...

That's not as bad as you hiding which state you're currently living in so we don't laugh at your vote.
 
#167
#167
JOEY’S ALL VOL !!! said:
As it should be, but it makes no difference. The poor and hungry have always existed whether they’ve pulled the lever for a D or an R. One would think that after this long voters would see this 2 party election strategy isn’t working out for anybody but those elected. Government needs a complete overhaul not just another switch of which letter takes control for a bit.
Click to expand...

I think people filling their car with gas can identify a difference in philosophical belief between the 2.

I don’t disagree with your statement. But as far as why would someone be stupid enough to vote for Biden, but somehow come to the realization to not vote for him(his party) now, I think something this simple flips the switch for them. They aren’t concerned with some macro correction in governing. But are concerned with why is gas so expensive.
 
#168
#168
I just voted. Huge turnout. I'm in East Tennessee, knox county which is hugely red. Not really much contested but it took me an hour to vote. If this is indicative of the republican turnout, I'm thinking this is going to be huge for taking back the government from the communist scum.
 
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#171
#171
So ... because TN is still holding on the conditions that prior felons still cannot vote if they haven’t paid their court costs and fines or aren’t up to date and in good standing on their child support payments, that is a bad thing ? Or did you even bother reading the whole thing ? Tweet is misleading and has little to complain about.
 
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#174
#174
JOEY’S ALL VOL !!! said:
So ... because TN is still holding on the conditions that prior felons still cannot vote if they haven’t paid their court costs and fines or aren’t up to date and in good standing on their child support payments, that is a bad thing ? Or did you even bother reading the whole thing ? Tweet is misleading and has little to complain about.
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Why is child support tied to voting?
 
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#175
#175
BreatheUT said:
I didn't say they were finished. I just think the democrat party has hitched their wagons to the elite, but their propaganda is geared toward minority groups. There is a shift of that working class voter who used to think democrats were better at dealing with domestic issues. Democrats are a globalist party.
Click to expand...
It will be interesting to see the exit polling about why people voted the way they did.
 
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