Is it a right to play high school football? pretty sure the answer is no.
is high school football ever considered "commerce"? also pretty sure the answer is no.
what protection is being denied? Is a kid who goes to an out-of-state university and doesn't receive the Missouri Lottery Scholarship being denied a protection or a right? Of course not. What about Missouri charging out of state kids a higher tuition, are they being denied? There are different, accepted, standards when it comes to universities and geographic distinctions. and those involve direct commerce, not whatever people want to say high school football is.
What is the State of Missouri doing to ban out-of-state NIL from instate S-A? Throwing them in jail? Fining them? Kicking them out of school? Answer is no to all of those. those would be denied rights/protections. football is neither a protection or a right.
the COMMERCE side of NIL is NOT effected at all. Instate or Out-of State NIL, not effected. any Missouri student could sign any NIL deal they want tomorrow, start receiving money same day and the state of Missouri would do nothing to that NIL deal.
^that is the commerce side
eligibility to play football is a COMPLETELY separate issue, and I have yet to see any case of the SC going in and telling any state they can't make geographic considerations to eligibility. in fact, if anything, what I have seen be struck down in courts is kids trying to play elsewhere AGAINST the geographic rules set in place. Its established that the state can make rules on eligibility and take pretty much whatever they want into consideration. Unless recipients of NIL become a protected class somehow, its not an issue, and its certainly not a commerce issue.