Mark Stoops. Mike Gundy. Johnny Majors. Spurrier (at SC). There are more. But see you won’t address the big elephant in the room. And I have said it time and time again. No 2 head coaching situations are the same.
If every situation were the same then your argument holds merit. They aren’t so it doesn’t. Just because historically it hasn’t happened more often than not, doesn’t mean it can’t. And please give the list of coaches that have won at least 9 games, went into to great things at that school and had to walk into the EXACT same set of circumstances that Heupel did.
I will wait.
Those have done better than most. Actually a couple have done much better than most. Stoops is "closer" to an SEC championship in much the way Shaq is closer to the moon than Tom Cruise. He's improved them... and there's still almost no chance of them winning the SEC. Even so... only two are exceptions to the threshold and only one of those without an asterisk.
Stoops best finish is 2nd in the East in spite of having an up and down MSU team as his permanent crossover. UT, UGA, and UF all experienced a valley together but it was Mizzou that took advantage, not Stoops. And do you really and truly believe he's getting players because they believe he can win an SEC championship? Is he getting anything like the types of players that can win an SEC championship?
Mike Gundy in 17 years has 1 conference championship in a VERY weak conference. He's won his division twice. If you are really that desperate, you can call him an exception. He won 9 games in his 4th year btw... one year late. Question- Do you think Ok St recruits well enough to compete in the SEC?
Majors is an exception but also straddles that 40 year period I mentioned. I use 40 years because college sports changed with the advent of ESPN and 24 hour sports news. SI came out monthly I believe way back then and was far from comprehensive? All someone outside the southeast knew about UT was found in a list of scores on Sunday morning. All Majors truly needed in those early years was supportive boosters. There might have been some negative local buzz but nothing like the national "hot seat" reporting we have now.
Spurrier didn't win a championship at USCe. IMO, he is one of the greatest college coaches of all time... and he wasn't an exception to the "rule". He did have more success than USCe has ever seen. But is he a special case because of all he had proven up to that point? In 11 years he won the East just once.... then got slaughtered by Auburn in the CG. Was that more a function of the East being bad or USCe truly "rising up"?
So... in that group you have 4 conference championship (3 by Majors in the 80's), a few division titles, and no BCS berths in 54 total years of coaching.