‘23 NC WR Nathan Leacock (Tennessee)

[miket4god]

I guess players can’t develop and improve from year to year

The post you quoted literally acknowledged players can improve.

 

[LittleVol]

How so? Perception? Drawing positive attention to UT? Right now, I'd say we've got hope at the most important position on the field, but other than that, the Nico effect/impact hasn't been all that and a box of chocolates especially on the recruiting trail. Granted, the final chapter on this years class hasn't been written yet so there's still a lot that can change. As for where it really counts...on the field...his impact remains to be seen.

The Nico effect will be seen in 2024- 2040.

Too many of you focus on short money.

This kid is going to break records and win championships for Tennessee.

I don't care if brings in one recruit with him.
Although....he will today, and Leacock when he commits.

 

[peaygolf]

The Nico effect will be seen in 2024- 2040.

Too many of you focus on short money.

This kid is going to break records and win championships for Tennessee.

I don't care if brings in one recruit with him.
Although....he will today, and Leacock when he commits.

“Nico effect,” is fine. Getting kids who would NEVER have looked at UT something to think about. ……..Vols will get their share of great players. Top 5 class full of 5* is a pipe dream right now…….and that’s ok. Things be a changin.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

Get the best players available, that fit your system.

If the "system" involves defeating Alabama and Georgia straight up on the field, then we'd need to be physically comparable to their roster with our roster.


Or does CJH bust out the old out-coach 'em method?

 

[Orange_Crush]

Yeah because of numbers.

~30 five stars each cycle
~ 330 four stars
~ 2200 three stars

Per On3, 62% of five stars get drafted.
22% of four stars get drafted.
5% of three stars get drafted.

So while it’s factually correct more three stars get drafted each year - it’s misleading as hell.




Yeah we had a list of busts during the years we had inconsistent to not S&C staff and toxic to incompetent coaching. Not sure what your point is.



Okay cool. Never said that wasn’t important. Simply made the point that in virtually every three star thread of a Tennessee commit, there are those claiming the kid is a diamond in the rough and will be bumped to a four star. That is all.

I think his point may be that there are enough three stars to the NFL to fill out NFL rosters. It would support his argument that all 3-stars aren't created equal and there are a lot that are underrated. Thus, if staffs are good at spotting underrated 3 stars, one can't judge their classes based on stars.

If he was claiming that all 3 stars are created equal, your distinction would mean something. But that's not his argument, so all you're doing is agreeing with his basic premise.

 

[sjt18]

Granted, love when we get high star guys, many that have excelled since pee wee ball. On the other hand a fan HOPING that their staff has picked up the MISSES from the 3 and lower star pools at the top of the food chain. It is a very inexact science evaluating kids at various stages of growth and maturity. They can only rank what they see, and cannot project growth and improvement in college programs strength and nutrition programs. The following is the CBS breakdown of the first round of 22 draft...

2022 NFL Draft by recruiting ranking

• 5-stars: 8
• 4-stars: 12
• 3-stars: 9
• 2-stars: 1
• 1-star: 0
• Unranked: 2

They hit on 20 and missed on 12. So 4 and 5 stars are the safest bet, celebrate them, But college staffs are targeting INDIVIDUAL kids after camps and growth spurts not available to the services and are not just blindly reaching into the vast 3 star pool. Each ranking group will be comprised of hits and misses. How many three stars got drafted THIS year that were outside the Top 250 or 300 of their same respective two main classes? How did the rest of the 4 and 5 stars from multiple classes get passed?

Total draft numbers would of course skew to more 3's. Could not find just a breakdown for all 250 or so draft picks.

But these numbers are a basis for optimism that stars are probabilities of success and not ceilings on players ability. Would love to have a third of our 3 stars turn into first round draft picks. Or maybe just get our statistical share.

I found a list of draftees with their recruit ranking a while back. Around 60% of 5* were drafted- 18-20. Around 20% of 4* were drafted- around 70. The rest were 3* or under. Several were unrated.

To consider just the first round, you would then have to somehow weight it by how those draftees went on to perform. You would think that a former 5* for Bama who got a lot of media exposure would draft higher than a former unrated player who might do just as well in the NFL who was anonymous playing for Southeast Missouri State.

 

[sjt18]

If the "system" involves defeating Alabama and Georgia straight up on the field, then we'd need to be physically comparable to their roster with our roster.


Or does CJH bust out the old out-coach 'em method?

Can't be either/or in this era. You have to find talent (ranked or not) then coach them up. Lack one or the other... and you get buried like UT has been for several years.

 

[Devo182]

I agree that we've either missed on evaluations, mismanaged, underdeveloped, or just plain wasted a lot of highly rated players during the past 15 years.

Yes.

 

[Orange_Crush]

No it isn't. Not at all. If you truly want to compare 3* and 4* draftees then you'd have to look at the SEC or maybe the Big 10 alone. All 3* are not made alike.

But you are either intentionally or accidentally missing the whole point. About 18 5* will be drafted each year. Maybe 70 4*. Well over 100 unrated to 3*. Those players in that last group are out there RIGHT NOW getting ready to make their college choice. They exist apart from whether On3 is accurate with their rankings or not. That talent is out there to be discovered, recruited, and developed.

If you knew you had 25 of those 100+ underrated guys signed... would you worry about "stars"?

A lot of those guys were simply overrated. Someone pointed out that UT had a bunch of 3* that weren't very good.... there are 4/5* over the last several years who were just flat out bad. Was K McKenzie anything close to a 5*? Who was better him or Butler?


That happens a lot. I'm sure it happens on other sites as well. And considering that ONLY about 25% of 4/5* players will end up being drafted with a lot of 3* being drafted... they're sometimes right.

Well said.

People should most properly be debating based on what they see in film, relying on their own abilities to rate/describe/debate recruits. When folks blindly argue stars, it's usually a very good indication they can't debate the things that are actually constructive to the discussion. It's most often someone short-cutting expertise but wanting to sound like an expert in the conversation. (Or, it's trolls trying to spark tinder.)

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Tennessee has had several 3 stars go to the nfl. Sure there are more of them, but being able to identify the 3-4 star players that can help you and coach them up is part of building great depth. Bama and Georgia get a lot of 4-5 stars and that is important too, but both of them both take their share of 3’s too and some have turned out very good. If you can get your share of 4-5 stars and are good at finding the underrated 3 stars that is a good combo. After all the biggest pools are 3 and 4 star pools. My point is, all aspects of recruiting are vital. GBO!

 

[Orange.]

I agree that we've either missed on evaluations, mismanaged, underdeveloped, or just plain wasted a lot of highly rated players during the past 15 years.

Glad that appears to all be behind us with this staff.

 

[sjt18]

Yes. And the right coach is still going to have to be given time to build up the team.

I don't know how to make folks like you understand that time is NOT the ally of a coach. A coach comes in with "buzz". Recruits listen. But by the end of season 3 if that coach hasn't done something impressive then the recruits stop listening. When that happens you MUST move on for the sake of the program. If someone had had the wisdom and courage to fire Jones after his first 3 seasons then the program might have been on its feet long before now. Recruits and everyone else watched him choke games and squander talent. Recruits stopped listening. The roster was in decent shape at that point. Two years later... it was a mess.

If not for the portal exodus... Pruitt would have been leaving at exactly the right time to have been a good set up man.

If Heupel cannot create momentum in his first 3 years then hopefully he can be a great set up man for the next coach.

I DO think Heupel has the right leadership and coaching ability to beat the clock. This is just a worst case "what if" type of answer.

 

[SweetasSoda]

I don't know how to make folks like you understand that time is NOT the ally of a coach. A coach comes in with "buzz". Recruits listen. But by the end of season 3 if that coach hasn't done something impressive then the recruits stop listening. When that happens you MUST move on for the sake of the program. If someone had had the wisdom and courage to fire Jones after his first 3 seasons then the program might have been on its feet long before now. Recruits and everyone else watched him choke games and squander talent. Recruits stopped listening. The roster was in decent shape at that point. Two years later... it was a mess.

If not for the portal exodus... Pruitt would have been leaving at exactly the right time to have been a good set up man.

If Heupel cannot create momentum in his first 3 years then hopefully he can be a great set up man for the next coach.

I DO think Heupel has the right leadership and coaching ability to beat the clock. This is just a worst case "what if" type of answer.

How do I make you understand that I have heard all of that for years. But after 4 bad hires, the hatred of the media, the reluctance of coaches to take on our problems and the shape our program is currently in, we don’t have the luxury of just blindly saying the coach has to be fired after season 3. 5 has to be the goal just to get the program stable. So unless we are winning 4 or 5 games a season, we better suck it up and tough it out. Hopefully we don’t have to worry about it. But there will be idiot fans who have no idea how close we are to being a doomed team, especially with all this expansion, that will screaming for him to be fired after every loss. At the moment there’s absolutely no reason to even be contemplating it.

 

[sjt18]

How do I make you understand that I have heard all of that for years. But after 4 bad hires, the hatred of the media, the reluctance of coaches to take on our problems and the shape our program is currently in, we don’t have the luxury of just blindly saying the coach has to be fired after season 3.

Then you believe UT is in a hopeless Catch-22. A coach who doesn't prove himself cannot get talent. Without talent he cannot prove himself. That's why a coach has to strike early when he can promise change and playing time.

5 has to be the goal just to get the program stable.

How is a 2nd or 3rd tier roster stabilizing? Jones couldn't coach worth a dime. But he could sell those used cars.... Early a coach is selling a dream... pure perception. After year 3, he has a record. He either sells something tangible or he doesn't sell.

So unless we are winning 4 or 5 games a season, we better suck it up and tough it out. Hopefully we don’t have to worry about it. But there will be idiot fans who have no idea how close we are to being a doomed team, especially with all this expansion, that will screaming for him to be fired after every loss. At the moment there’s absolutely no reason to even be contemplating it.

A few things have to happen to get the program on track.

One of two things must happen. A coach must come in and just be "great"... our up and comer... our diamond in the rough. He generates quick excitement and unexpected wins then converts that quickly into sustained recruiting. OR... you have a guy who uses his "buzz" to get your roster half way home. Then you fire him and bring someone in who finishes the job on that foundation.

Stoops and Pinkel are the best examples I know of your idea. Pinkel took advantage of a weak East a couple of times but was nowhere near the top tier. Stoops has done what you can do with your idea. He's taken a bottom tier team and made them 2nd tier. Recruits now know who they are... and who they are not. He represents the "best case" for keeping a coach that has established mediocrity. Usually... they don't stay at that level. They sink.

 

[SweetasSoda]

Then you believe UT is in a hopeless Catch-22. A coach who doesn't prove himself cannot get talent. Without talent he cannot prove himself. That's why a coach has to strike early when he can promise change and playing time.

How is a 2nd or 3rd tier roster stabilizing? Jones couldn't coach worth a dime. But he could sell those used cars.... Early a coach is selling a dream... pure perception. After year 3, he has a record. He either sells something tangible or he doesn't sell.

A few things have to happen to get the program on track.

One of two things must happen. A coach must come in and just be "great"... our up and comer... our diamond in the rough. He generates quick excitement and unexpected wins then converts that quickly into sustained recruiting. OR... you have a guy who uses his "buzz" to get your roster half way home. Then you fire him and bring someone in who finishes the job on that foundation.

Stoops and Pinkel are the best examples I know of your idea. Pinkel took advantage of a weak East a couple of times but was nowhere near the top tier. Stoops has done what you can do with your idea. He's taken a bottom tier team and made them 2nd tier. Recruits now know who they are... and who they are not. He represents the "best case" for keeping a coach that has established mediocrity. Usually... they don't stay at that level. They sink.

Not hopeless at all! Just not as simple as you want it to be. But we’re not firing our coach after 3 years, and we’re not discussing it before the second year starts, because he is going to get enough good players and scheme for them to succeed ENOUGH that those in charge are going to give him five years to rebuild this program!

 

[sjt18]

Not hopeless at all! Just not as simple as you want it to be.

How is what I proposed more "simple" than you thinking that just giving someone more time will fix everything? If it were simple, it would have already been fixed. It isn't simple at all. You have to have an AD with the wisdom and stones to recognize where the program is headed and not where it has been.

But we’re not firing our coach after 3 years, and we’re not discussing it before the second year starts, because he is going to get enough good players and scheme for them to succeed ENOUGH that those in charge are going to give him five years to rebuild this program!

I believe he will win 9 or maybe 10 games this fall including the bowl. I also think that makes this conversation moot. But it is not correct to say he gets 5 years regardless unless you are ready to just repeat the same pattern.

I'm not the one who started this particular conversation. I think it was someone who asserted he should be able to win 7 games last year, 8 this year, and 7 the next year... and still be employed in year 4. If that's the case then recruits will stop listening. Right now some of the best players in the country are listening. The only way to sustain that is with wins.

 

[Devo182]

Tennessee has had several 3 stars go to the nfl. Sure there are more of them, but being able to identify the 3-4 star players that can help you and coach them up is part of building great depth. Bama and Georgia get a lot of 4-5 stars and that is important too, but both of them both take their share of 3’s too and some have turned out very good. If you can get your share of 4-5 stars and are good at finding the underrated 3 stars that is a good combo. After all the biggest pools are 3 and 4 star pools. My point is, all aspects of recruiting are vital. GBO!

UGA and Bama took 9 3*s last year combined.

We took 14.

I wouldn't say they take their "fair share". They take comparatively few.

 

[jakez4ut]

 

[MarcoVol]

Tennessee has had several 3 stars go to the nfl. Sure there are more of them, but being able to identify the 3-4 star players that can help you and coach them up is part of building great depth. Bama and Georgia get a lot of 4-5 stars and that is important too, but both of them both take their share of 3’s too and some have turned out very good. If you can get your share of 4-5 stars and are good at finding the underrated 3 stars that is a good combo. After all the biggest pools are 3 and 4 star pools. My point is, all aspects of recruiting are vital. GBO!

True, their shares are just much smaller

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Nathan Leacock huh guys?

What we think of him?

 

[THEAXMAN]

Nathan Leacock huh guys?

What we think of him?

I know the Michigan staff was very high on him an thought they could turn him into a high draft pick.

 

[Woodlawn VOL]

Then you believe UT is in a hopeless Catch-22. A coach who doesn't prove himself cannot get talent. Without talent he cannot prove himself. That's why a coach has to strike early when he can promise change and playing time.

How is a 2nd or 3rd tier roster stabilizing? Jones couldn't coach worth a dime. But he could sell those used cars.... Early a coach is selling a dream... pure perception. After year 3, he has a record. He either sells something tangible or he doesn't sell.

A few things have to happen to get the program on track.

One of two things must happen. A coach must come in and just be "great"... our up and comer... our diamond in the rough. He generates quick excitement and unexpected wins then converts that quickly into sustained recruiting. OR... you have a guy who uses his "buzz" to get your roster half way home. Then you fire him and bring someone in who finishes the job on that foundation.

Stoops and Pinkel are the best examples I know of your idea. Pinkel took advantage of a weak East a couple of times but was nowhere near the top tier. Stoops has done what you can do with your idea. He's taken a bottom tier team and made them 2nd tier. Recruits now know who they are... and who they are not. He represents the "best case" for keeping a coach that has established mediocrity. Usually... they don't stay at that level. They sink.

By all indications this staff has us headed in the right direction. At the moment we are 7th in recruiting, yes we have to keep showing progress. But at this point in time there is no reason to doubt Heupel or his staff. They aren’t perfect but at this point there is no reason to not be optimistic. I can’t wait for kickoff! GBO!!!!!

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

All day. Stars are based on overall talent potential but if you put them in the wrong system for their skill set then they are no better than a 3 star. A 3 star that fits your system can be more of a 4/5 star in the right system. You obviously want all the 4/5 stars you can get but don’t take just to take. Take bc they can excel in your system

Interesting. So I guess Bama, UGA, OSU, Clemson, Texas, Notre Dame, LSU and TAMU just so happen to have a system that fits ALL highly ranked 4-5* players?

Remember the Trevor Lawrence recruitment? Butch told him he didn’t fit his system? Sure seemed to fit Dabos just fine. Or, did Dabo just take Lawrence’s commitment and redesign his system around TLs skill set?

 

[BigOrangeTrain]

Nathan Leacock huh guys?

What we think of him?

Big WR that looks to have good speed and hands. Definite want.

 

[OrangeMoundTNVol]

Nathan Leacock huh guys?

What we think of him?

I like him. Reminds me of Marquez North, hopefully he has more heart tho