Interesting thread, long but I appreciate the homework and analysis involved. I may be in the minority here, but I really don't think this contract is a big deal, nor a sign of the apocalypse.
There are two factors here: 1) The amount of money, and 2) length of contract. I believe Fulmer's $3 million salary to be fair based on the market. I also believe that by extending a contract you are showing faith and confidence in your coach's abilities to perform the job in the future. And in almost all businesses, the effect is almost always some form of increased compensation. So for that, I don't believe the value of the contract to be significant. A vote of approval is a yes or no question. Fulmer got the yes, so now we got to pay him.
In case you don't know, Fulmer's agent is Jimmy Sexton. Yeah, he's the guy who got Saban a 8 yr. $32 million contract with a clause that he can leave the program at any time, for any reason. A big gamble for UA considering Saban's sketchy past and .500 record at most places except LSU. He also got Tuberville a big check and lengthy contract despite only one sec championship and pure dislike Tubby and the A.D. have for eachother (AU interviewing Petrino behind Tubby's back, rumors of Tubby interviewing for every job that comes open elsewhere, etc.) Again, a "W" for Sexton's client. And then there is Houston Nutt. Who had the leverage to increase demands at Arkansas, because there was already an offer under the table from Ole Miss. In conclusion, the guy is good, and he gets what he wants.
So now its time to take care of ol' Phil.....for life. This is gonna be the easiest deal Sexton's ever made. Despite the fact that most UT fans are dissatisfied with the our most recent successes and lack of championships, Phil put hisself in the driver's seat with his eastern title and 10 win season last year. It is all about timing. And even though its been a decade since any form of championship, that one big one in 98 still carries some heady weight. Not only is all the other coaches in this elite class cashing big checks, but the others who are on the threshold of greatness (Tubby, Richt) are also breaking AD's banks. So considering the past successess of CPF and the inability to have sufficient reasonable doubt against his current roster's potential, his $3 mil. is reasonable compared to all other sec coaches.
As far as the length, I really don't see any scenario where CPF would still be here in 7 years. The $5 mil buyout clause solidifies my beliefs. I believe there are two scenarios that are most likely to come of Fulmer's legacy. Both scenarios were created with the hiring of the new offensive regime and could be summarized by saying Fulmer is rolling the dice.
The first is we continue to lose in the sec championship game and piss away NFL talent. After 3, maybe even 2 years of this, Fulmer is beheaded and his new staff unfortunately drowns because they jumped on this sinking ship called UT football. However, the Fulmer family will be okay because Phil, knowing that this scenario was highly probable, put a 5 yr. buyout clause in his contract years prior. So for all you Fulmer haters, consider the buyout clause a reason to postpone the apocalypse despite the lengthy contract.
The second scenario is one of which most people would like to see. But there is more than meets the eye. Don't quote my numbrers on this but I believe Fulmer is around 25-40 wins away from surpassing Gen. Neyland in all-time UT wins and second to only the Bear in SEC wins. And if you think that the a.d. and the program are not concious of nor desire these records, you are very naive. But most importantly, there are no excuses why Fulmer and staff couldn't add another sec or national championship within this 3 year period in 2009-10. If Fulmer doesn't produce championships within this period, he is bought out/walks away with records in belt, a national championship, a hella legacy. If he does win another championship, well I'm sure we won't mind him staying around for the full 7 years with Nunes and company.
Either way, the reigns will be turned over to Clawson as long as the ship doesn't sink from the get go, and his offense is modern and super competitive.
I believe Fulmer deserves one last chance with this new staff. And I think everyone of us would love to hold these records and celebrate his accomplishments.