Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

#576
#576
TheMookieMonster said:
Interesting. I’m not doubting Bracket Matrix, but I find it hard to believe that Duke ends up as a 7. I think a 6 is their floor right now and very likely will be a 5. They’re playing really good basketball. They also are a blue blood and I just am completely convinced blue bloods get preferential treatment in March. I will not be shocked if Duke is a 5 seed, or a 6 seed in Greeneseboro.
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Like I said that was before their game yesterday, it could move after yesterdays results are figured in, we shall see. I am curious on the bolded though, do you have supporting evidence where this has happened, or just a gut feeling, because bracketing rules are pretty clear that it shouldn’t happen.
 
#577
#577
bleedingTNorange said:
Bracketmatrix, which is who I’ve said time and time again is who I use because they’ve proven to be the most accurate. Now that hasn’t updated with yesterdays results so they may climb to a 6 in next update but right now they’re listed as a 7.
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Oh nice, it shows all the other bracket places too.

Looks like they are averaging as the #1 7 seed so they might move up.
 
#579
#579
TheMookieMonster said:
Interesting. I’m not doubting Bracket Matrix, but I find it hard to believe that Duke ends up as a 7. I think a 6 is their floor right now and very likely will be a 5. They’re playing really good basketball. They also are a blue blood and I just am completely convinced blue bloods get preferential treatment in March. I will not be shocked if Duke is a 5 seed, or a 6 seed in Greeneseboro.
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After the Virginia screw job, I really thought they would fold. Instead, they look like a legitimate Sweet 16 team now.
 
#584
#584
bleedingTNorange said:
Just updated, Duke still a 7. http://www.bracketmatrix.com/
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True, but gaining ground. 39 of the 61 brackets that are dated today have them as either a 5 or a 6. We'll see. A win over Miami today I think puts them on the 5 line with Miami, and in that case we definitely want to remain a 3.

My prediction is that both San Diego St and Saint Mary's fall to the 6 line with Duke and TCU moving to the 5 when the smoke clears, but that's predicated on Duke beating Miami.
 
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#585
#585
bleedingTNorange said:
Do you have supporting evidence where this has happened, or just a gut feeling, because bracketing rules are pretty clear that it shouldn’t happen.
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I’m honestly not sure why any thing I post on this board about my opinion has to come with supporting evidence. It’s just my opinion, and apparently I’m not the only person who thinks it is a realistic outcome because Joe Lunardi (yes, I know he isn’t great) and several other notable bracketologists also have Duke playing in North Carolina. It must not be that outlandish of a concept, even if it doesn’t guarantee it to happen. I just think if the committee is able to make it happen, they will. But there are other games to be played that will affect seeding.

I don’t buy the concept of bracketing principles. It doesn’t take an expert to see that in regards to the NCAA Tournament, preferential treatment of blue bloods is a thing that happens.
 
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#590
#590
TheMookieMonster said:
I’m honestly not sure why any thing I post on this board about my opinion has to come with supporting evidence. It’s just my opinion, and apparently I’m not the only person who thinks it is a realistic outcome because Joe Lunardi (yes, I know he isn’t great) and several other notable bracketologists also have Duke playing in North Carolina. It must not be that outlandish of a concept, even if it doesn’t guarantee it to happen. I just think if the committee is able to make it happen, they will. But there are other games to be played that will affect seeding.

I don’t buy the concept of bracketing principles. It doesn’t take an expert to see that in regards to the NCAA Tournament, preferential treatment of blue bloods is a thing that happens.
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I was asking a legitimate question, sorry to ruffle feathers.
 
#591
#591
TheMookieMonster said:
Lunardi is not very good with visualization. His graphics are pretty hastily thrown together and he doesn’t explain how you’re supposed to read it, so it happens. Took me awhile to figure out how he displays the info.
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I've seen it explained several different ways. Earlier this season I mis read one because he was snaking it, so it looked like we were last on the line but we were first.
 
#592
#592
TheMookieMonster said:
I’m honestly not sure why any thing I post on this board about my opinion has to come with supporting evidence. It’s just my opinion, and apparently I’m not the only person who thinks it is a realistic outcome because Joe Lunardi (yes, I know he isn’t great) and several other notable bracketologists also have Duke playing in North Carolina. It must not be that outlandish of a concept, even if it doesn’t guarantee it to happen. I just think if the committee is able to make it happen, they will. But there are other games to be played that will affect seeding.































I don’t buy the concept of bracketing principles. It doesn’t take an expert to see that in regards to the NCAA Tournament, preferential treatment of blue bloods is a thing that happens.[/QIUOTYE]







I agree. Perception matters and blue bloods tend to get the benefit of the doubt. Duke will probably be a seed line or two higher than what the numbers say they should.
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#593
#593
bleedingTNorange said:
I was asking a legitimate question, sorry to ruffle feathers.
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It’s fine. Sorry if my response was bristled. My apologies, you’ve just been asking me to provide evidence the past couple of days. I’m not trying to make any definitive, factual assessments about the committee. I’m just providing my interpretation of how it looks from an outsiders perspective of how the committee is going to operate. That’s all. It’s just my opinion, I know not everything is going to be supported by facts.
 
#594
#594
TheMookieMonster said:
It’s fine. Sorry if my response was bristled. My apologies, you’ve just been asking me to provide evidence the past couple of days. I’m not trying to make any definitive, factual assessments about the committee. I’m just providing my interpretation of how it looks from an outsiders perspective of how the committee is going to operate. That’s all. It’s just my opinion, I know not everything is going to be supported by facts.
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You are 1 of probably 10 posters, and even that might be generous, who when I see your avi I stop and read your posts…most others I scroll past. You’ve long been a regular here and have typically well thought out and educated posts and replies which I find valuable. So kind of like earlier this year when myself and Chris were surprised by your reactions to some games I just was curious on some recent takes if they had some backing or merit to them or were just a gut opinion. Which if they are is fine, but I know typically you aren’t an emotional poster so thought there was very possibly some educated meanings behind them, that’s all. I keep seeing the Duke thing but have yet to see examples of it, that’s why I was curious. Bracket principles are followed 99% of the time every year, it’s why you don’t see that mentioned, if they weren’t being followed and teams just being put where they shouldn’t you’d hear about it.
 
#595
#595
bleedingTNorange said:
You are 1 of probably 10 posters, and even that might be generous, who when I see your avi I stop and read your posts…most others I scroll past. You’ve long been a regular here and have typically well thought out and educated posts and replies which I find valuable. So kind of like earlier this year when myself and Chris were surprised by your reactions to some games I just was curious on some recent takes if they had some backing or merit to them or were just a gut opinion. Which if they are is fine, but I know typically you aren’t an emotional poster so thought there was very possibly some educated meanings behind them, that’s all. I keep seeing the Duke thing but have yet to see examples of it, that’s why I was curious. Bracket principles are followed 99% of the time every year, it’s why you don’t see that mentioned, if they weren’t being followed and teams just being put where they shouldn’t you’d hear about it.
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I appreciate the kind words. Means a lot. Really, it does. I try to be level headed as much as possible, but sometimes my passion for Tennessee Athletics leads me to get emotional following a rough stretch for a program, whether it’s football, basketball, or baseball. Dad went to Tennessee. Sister went to Tennessee. I went to Tennessee. So, my fandom leaks through occasionally. But, I mostly try to stay in line and not say stupid things.

In regards to the Duke thing, you will probably end up being right, but after last year I put nothing past the Committee. Clearly the Committee leaked information to Lunardi to try and cover for their Kentucky seeding decision, considering there was no evidentiary reason as to why they should have been ahead of us other than “It’s Kentucky.” Zero. So, if he and others have Duke in Greeneseboro, it raises some flags for me.
 
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#596
#596
bleedingTNorange said:
Todays games:
6:30pm: Connecticut vs. Marquette
7:00pm: Kansas vs. Iowa State
7:00pm: Duke vs. Miami
9:00pm: Creighton vs. Xavier
9:00pm: Maryland vs. Indiana
9:30pm: Clemson vs. Virginia
9:30pm: TCU vs.Texas
9:30pm: San Jose State vs. San Diego State
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I get the strategy if they are above you and you cannot catch them ... then you want them to beat the ones below you.
Sorry, but they are both the enemy and while some think Marquette is "fixed" on the 2 line ... I am going with my gut and pulling for Connecticut.
Same is true for Texas ... "they may be fixed" but I am going to pull for TCU and see if that will drop them down.
 
#597
#597
TheMookieMonster said:
I appreciate the kind words. Means a lot. Really, it does. I try to be level headed as much as possible, but sometimes my passion for Tennessee Athletics leads me to get emotional following a rough stretch for a program, whether it’s football, basketball, or baseball. Dad went to Tennessee. Sister went to Tennessee. I went to Tennessee. So, my fandom leaks through occasionally. But, I mostly try to stay in line and not say stupid things.

In regards to the Duke thing, you will probably end up being right, but after last year I put nothing past the Committee. Clearly the Committee leaked information to Lunardi to try and cover for their Kentucky seeding decision, considering there was no evidentiary reason as to why they should have been ahead of us other than “It’s Kentucky.” Zero. So, if he and others have Duke in Greeneseboro, it raises some flags for me.
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I get the conspiracy thought of things, but I truly think that last year with Kentucky it was lost that it proved conference tournaments mean next to nothing. Look at the tweets the NCAA Committee guy has been putting out, essentially saying they seeded 1-2 seeds the other day and 3-4 seeds last night, so Marquette who entered the conference tournament a 3 seed 1-2 spots behind Baylor for a 2 seed can win the BE tournament while Baylor lost game 1 and yet it sounds like those 2 won’t change spots.
 
#598
#598
SN-A-C Orange said:
I get the strategy if they are above you and you cannot catch them ... then you want them to beat the ones below you.
Sorry, but they are both the enemy and while some think Marquette is "fixed" on the 2 line ... I am going with my gut and pulling for Connecticut.
Same is true for Texas ... "they may be fixed" but I am going to pull for TCU and see if that will drop them down.
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That’s playing with fire but you do you; way more likely all 4 end up ahead of us than us passing them up imo.
 
#599
#599
I would rather lose today and get bumped back to the bracket projection we were in yesterday than win and be in the current projection. My god, Murderers row.
 
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