Official Watch Party Thread (NCAAT seeding edition)

[golfballs]

Discussion around Baylor @ Texas, what y’all think? Baylor is gonna be hard to catch, they’d have to lose their last 2 games and probably early out in B12 tourney for us to have any chance, meanwhile if Texas was to win they could close the gap in catching us? I’m thinking we probably need to be safe and root for Baylor?

Agree. And if we’re close to Texas in the seed line they have the advantage of a head to head win.

 

[JRVOL11]

honestly don’t think we will get close to a 2 seed. wouldn’t we have to win out and win the sec tourney?

 

[TheMookieMonster]

honestly don’t think we will get close to a 2 seed. wouldn’t we have to win out and win the sec tourney?

Win last two games this week? Yes. Win SECT? No. If you just make it to the final I’m fairly confident you get a 2-seed. You have a very remote chance if you just win the first game in the SECT but it would be entirely dependent on who else lost in their tournaments and when.

 

[wtmvol]

honestly don’t think we will get close to a 2 seed. wouldn’t we have to win out and win the sec tourney?

Yes - that is the path to a 2 seed.

If Auburn loses @ Miss St, and we win out, I believe that gives us the SEC 1 seed, and Auburn/Kentucky can duke it out in the SEC semi's. Then winning the SEC tournament doesn't seem quite as daunting.

 

[JRVOL11]

Win last two games this week? Yes. Win SECT? No. If you just make it to the final I’m fairly confident you get a 2-seed. You have a very remote chance if you just win the first game in the SECT but it would be entirely dependent on who else lost in their tournaments and when.

it’s tough having to depend on some teams losing, so i feel like they would for sure have to go 2-0 this week & at least make the sec championship or win it to fully secure a 2. i think they can do it, the next two weeks will be very interesting.

 

[wtmvol]

Win last two games this week? Yes. Win SECT? No. If you just make it to the final I’m fairly confident you get a 2-seed. You have a very remote chance if you just win the first game in the SECT but it would be entirely dependent on who else lost in their tournaments and when.

Maybe. We'd need quite a bit of help in that scenario.

 

[golfballs]

Win last two games this week? Yes. Win SECT? No. If you just make it to the final I’m fairly confident you get a 2-seed. You have a very remote chance if you just win the first game in the SECT but it would be entirely dependent on who else lost in their tournaments and when.

Agree because Auburn and UK are both ahead of us and if we make the final it will likely mean beating one of them again. Basically I see 2 SEC teams as 2 seeds or better. So those SEC semifinals could end up determining that.

 

[TheMookieMonster]

Agree because Auburn and UK are both ahead of us and if we make the final it will likely mean beating one of them again. Basically I see 2 SEC teams as 2 seeds or better. So those SEC semifinals could end up determining that.

Yep. That’s pretty much my thought process. I struggle to imagine with how Auburn and Kentucky have played down the stretch that if we make it to the final over one of them with a head to head win against both that they could seriously seed us below them. It could happen, don’t get me wrong. I just don’t see it.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

honestly don’t think we will get close to a 2 seed. wouldn’t we have to win out and win the sec tourney?

Not sure your definition of close, but in mine I would say we already are “close”…we’re likely the 10th or 11th team on the seed list currently, so 2-3 spots out of a 2 seed, that’s pretty close imo. Win the next 2 and we are there imo heading into SECT, at that point likely would depend on how other conference tourneys go, but a 2 is very much on the table.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Yes - that is the path to a 2 seed.

If Auburn loses @ Miss St, and we win out, I believe that gives us the SEC 1 seed, and Auburn/Kentucky can duke it out in the SEC semi's. Then winning the SEC tournament doesn't seem quite as daunting.

We’re talking about NCAAT seeding, not SECT

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Agree because Auburn and UK are both ahead of us and if we make the final it will likely mean beating one of them again. Basically I see 2 SEC teams as 2 seeds or better. So those SEC semifinals could end up determining that.

Somehow putting Auburn/Kentucky on the same side would be great for this reason

 

[cncchris33]

Win last two games this week? Yes. Win SECT? No. If you just make it to the final I’m fairly confident you get a 2-seed. You have a very remote chance if you just win the first game in the SECT but it would be entirely dependent on who else lost in their tournaments and when.

I don't think we have a shot unless we win the SECT, or lose to Auburn or UK in the finals. Anything short of that is going to be heavily reliant on other teams above us losing.

 

[Voltime123]

I am of the opinion if we win out in the regular season regardless of the SECT result we are a 2 seed based off of our overall resume.

 

[chuckiepoo]

I am of the opinion if we win out in the regular season regardless of the SECT result we are a 2 seed based off of our overall resume.

 

[cncchris33]

I am of the opinion if we win out in the regular season regardless of the SECT result we are a 2 seed based off of our overall resume.

We aren't a 2-seed, now. How do you expect thay we get there if we lose to an unranked opponent on a neutral court in the quarterfinals?

Even with a win in the quarterfinals, a loss to Arkansas, Auburn, or UK in the semifinals still further fuels the negative perception that we can't beat good teams away from Thomsposn-Boling Arena.

 

[Willy14]

We aren't a 2-seed, now. How do you expect thay we get there if we lose to an unranked opponent on a neutral court in the quarterfinals?

Even with a win in the quarterfinals, a loss to Arkansas, Auburn, or UK in the semifinals still further fuels the negative perception that we can't beat good teams away from Thomsposn-Boling Arena.

That's the one thing holding us back that is keeping teams like Kentucky ahead of us. That 20 point win @Kansas really beefs up their resume and really hurts ours because our best road win is arguably Miss state or Colorado

 

[cncchris33]

That's the one thing holding us back that is keeping teams like Kentucky ahead of us. That 20 point win @Kansas really beefs up their resume and really hurts ours because our best road win is arguably Miss state or Colorado

UNC on a neutral floor is our best win away from home. They don't necessarily need to be true road games, even, because the NCAAT is, of course, played on a neutral floor. But even in those neutral-site games (Nova, Texas Tech) we've lost to 2 teams we are competing for a spot with, UNC has been down more than usual, and Memphis wimped out.

 

[Willy14]

UNC on a neutral floor is our best win away from home. They don't necessarily need to be true road games, even, because the NCAAT is, of course, played on a neutral floor. But even in those neutral-site games (Nova, Texas Tech) we've lost to 2 teams we are competing for a spot with, UNC has been down more than usual, and Memphis wimped out.

Yeah I guess thats true, man if we could have just beaten Texas or Texas Tech or even Alabama. No sense in wishing for the past to be different but I wish we could have even just one of those games back and our resume would probably look so much better with a top 25 road win

 

[cncchris33]

Yeah I guess thats true, man if we could have just beaten Texas or Texas Tech or even Alabama. No sense in wishing for the past to be different but I wish we could have even just one of those games back and our resume would probably look so much better with a top 25 road win

Those are the very three games I look at on our schedule and think about what could have been.

Texas Tech: A game where we couldn't throw it in the ocean and JJJ trips on his own two feet on an uncontested breakaway for what would have been the difference in regulation of a game that went to OT.

Alabama: A game where we played without 2 starters and had a lead with 2 minutes to play. If Chandler plays, we win.

Texas: Another game where we just could not score. Unreal that we'd have two generationally poor shooting efforts in one year. And still had a chance to win it at the final score. Obvious cheapshot foul on Texas defender against Nkamhoua away from the ball goes uncalled on the final shot attempt.

 

[wtmvol]

We’re talking about NCAAT seeding, not SECT

Yeah, I know. My 1st part was in reference to that (needing to win out). The 2nd part was in reference to the poster saying he didn't feel like we would get close to a 2 seed. If getting a 2 seed means we have to win out, I was just saying it seemed a lot likelier if we only had to beat 1 of Kentucky or Auburn.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I don't think we have a shot unless we win the SECT, or lose to Auburn or UK in the finals. Anything short of that is going to be heavily reliant on other teams above us losing.

gotta jump 3 of these to get a 2…
Auburn: @MSST, SC
Kentucky: OM, @UF
Purdue: @Wisconsin, Indiana
Duke: @Pittsburgh, UNC
Texas Tech: K State, @OK State
Villnaova: Providence, @Butler

If we go 2-0 we jump any of those teams losing 1 game imo, then you head into tournament play…obviously 2 SEC teams on there, Texas Tech has to get past Baylor & Kansas most likely.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

We aren't a 2-seed, now. How do you expect thay we get there if we lose to an unranked opponent on a neutral court in the quarterfinals?

Even with a win in the quarterfinals, a loss to Arkansas, Auburn, or UK in the semifinals still further fuels the negative perception that we can't beat good teams away from Thomsposn-Boling Arena.

Our Q1 away from home record is better than Arizona’s and nearly identical to Auburn fwiw

 

[Voltime123]

We aren't a 2-seed, now. How do you expect thay we get there if we lose to an unranked opponent on a neutral court in the quarterfinals?

Even with a win in the quarterfinals, a loss to Arkansas, Auburn, or UK in the semifinals still further fuels the negative perception that we can't beat good teams away from Thomsposn-Boling Arena.

The narrative that we can’t win away is highly exaggerated. Name me other teams in the top ten that have top 25 wins away from home aside from the Kentucky vs Kansas game…the point is there are few and far between to choose from because those teams don’t have the strength of schedule like other teams do, neutrals courts don’t count…

 

[bleedingTNorange]

The narrative that we can’t win away is highly exaggerated. Name me other teams in the top ten that have top 25 wins away from home aside from the Kentucky vs Kansas game…the point is there are few and far between to choose from because those teams don’t have the strength of schedule like other teams do, neutrals courts don’t count…

Most every team that’s a projected 2 seed has multiple Q1 games away from home, meaning road/neutral…

Gonzaga: #10 Texas Tech, #13 UCLA
Arizona: #14 Illinois
Kentucky: #6 Kansas, #22 Alabama
Villanova: #8 Tennessee, #25 Providence
Duke: #1 Gonzaga, #4 Kentucky
Texas Tech: #5 Baylor, #8 Tennessee, #15 Texas
Auburn: #22 Alabama
Purdue: #7 Villanova, #14 Illinois, #18 Iowa

 

[cncchris33]

The narrative that we can’t win away is highly exaggerated. Name me other teams in the top ten that have top 25 wins away from home aside from the Kentucky vs Kansas game…the point is there are few and far between to choose from because those teams don’t have the strength of schedule like other teams do, neutrals courts don’t count…

Literally every top-10 team has a win away from home against a team currently ranked in the top 25, or who was at the time they played them.

•Kentucky you mentioned won at Kansas.

•Baylor beat Iowa St. on the road.

•Arizona beat Michigan on a neutral floor and at Illinois.

•Gonzaga beat UCLA on a neutral floor.

•Duke beat Kentucky on a neutral floor and Gonzaga on a neutral floor.

•Auburn beat Bama on the road.

•Kansas beat Iowa St. on the road.

•Purdue beat UNC on a neutral court, beat Villanova on a neutral court, at Illinois.

•Providence beat Wisconsin on neutral court, UCONN on the road, Xavier on the road.

•Wisconsin beat Houston on a neutral court, at Purdue, at Michigan St.

Many of those have also defeated multiple other teams who will be in the NCAAT on a neutral floor or away.