Our chances at Oregon.....

My gut tells me we will struggle to score points and average around 22pts/game for 2013. I sure hope I'm wrong about our offense and scoring, because I do anticipate an above average defensive squad for 2013. I suppose we can guess/project all we want, but it won't be long now before we all know what we've got. I'm starting to get excited as Football Time in Tessessee nears.
 
It's an amusing and absolutely asinine statement. We are slow, they are the fastest team in the country.

I'm not sure Oregon is the fastest team in the country. Plus, it takes more than just speed to win consistently. There's a reason a lot of track sprinters aren't good WRs.
 
Very diplomatic response to such an absurd statement.

As I've said all along, this is YOUR board, I'm here to enjoy talking with Vol fans, sharing info, and learning. Nothing is gained by trash talking.

Oh, and "diplomatic responses" were part of my JOB before I retired. I managed relationships between institutional investors, such as the Univ of Tenn and the portfolio managers making the investments. It was a fun job as long as the PMs were outperforming the market and a lot of work when they weren't or the market was going south......

I earned my pay and retirement!!!!!!!!
 
I guess we might as well just give manziel the heisman again since its already been decided

Allegedly he received money for autographs, Johnny Football is in deep do-do w/the NCAA. He may not even see the field this year for what he's done. So the Heisman could go to Justin Worley this year as he could catch on fire & play lights out like Manziel did as the surprise that he was in 2012. You just never ever know what to expect in college football.
 
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We have BigDan in the three technique , Big Dan Hood, Mozilla, Mr. Smith, AJ the Freak, and Too Maggitt to Quit. We're kicking Oregon's azz. This is not Dooley's team this is the Jones era and we are not slaw. #117

DM is playing three tech? I figured he would be the one tech guy .. if he is three who is our one tech?
 
We just pound the ball and execute long drives...don't care if our longest run is 10 yards as long as we keep moving the chains and keep their O on the bench...the D will need to attack on first down to put them into second and long...I've seen the Oregon O struggle when a team gets them off the field in 3...if they get that first first down it gives them extra energy...

But again, our key is long drives that end in TDs...
 
We just pound the ball and execute long drives...don't care if our longest run is 10 yards as long as we keep moving the chains and keep their O on the bench...the D will need to attack on first down to put them into second and long...I've seen the Oregon O struggle when a team gets them off the field in 3...if they get that first first down it gives them extra energy...

But again, our key is long drives that end in TDs...

I'd agree long drives that end in TDs are critical for UT to win this game. FGs won't do the job. I'm not that worried about the Oregon offense going three and out a few times as long as UT settles for FGs on occasions.
 
I personally think Oregon's defense is going to determine the point spread in this game. Sure I think Oregon is going to win, I'm a Duck. Just as I'd expect Vol fans to expect to win. I really think the passing game of UT is going to have to not turn the ball over. If the QB throws a pick 6 or two to those young receivers the Ducks will be very tough to beat. Tenn has a great Oline and should give plenty of time to throw, but if the Ducks blitz and get some pressure things could get interesting. If UT can just stick to the run and pass when they want to it will be difficult for the Duck defense.

Of course, the Ducks defense has always been a stop the run first defense. Make they beat us in the air type of philosophy. This match up is where I think the game gets decided.
 
I personally think Oregon's defense is going to determine the point spread in this game. Sure I think Oregon is going to win, I'm a Duck. Just as I'd expect Vol fans to expect to win. I really think the passing game of UT is going to have to not turn the ball over. If the QB throws a pick 6 or two to those young receivers the Ducks will be very tough to beat. Tenn has a great Oline and should give plenty of time to throw, but if the Ducks blitz and get some pressure things could get interesting. If UT can just stick to the run and pass when they want to it will be difficult for the Duck defense.

Of course, the Ducks defense has always been a stop the run first defense. Make they beat us in the air type of philosophy. This match up is where I think the game gets decided.

Good points. I think this game is decided in the trenches-- as with most games. If UT's lines live up to expectations, UT has a great shot. Run it down their throats, be servicible passing, and stop the run on D.

My biggest fear is missed assignments on both sides of the ball. There will be little room for UT error.

Since I believe that UT has the edge on boths lines... And since the team is in transition... I call it a toss up, and UT has a chance.
 
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I find this an interesting comment. I'm not sure I'd agree with that statement, of course, I am a Duck so my perspective may be bias a bit.

I think UT has faster WR's as a group though young. The top two apparent RB's have similar speed though your guy has probably proven himself more and Neal has much better size and power. Your QB has to be a runner so there's no comparison there. Safeties are probably close but UT has three very good ones. I am not sure what UT has at CB except athletes. They do have those. Oregon has recruited the secondary well from what I can tell. Though I know you have some well thought of DL's, I feel very comfortable saying that UT's front 7 is faster than yours. Not necessarily better... that to me is where this coaching staff earns its money... but faster and bigger and probably stronger.

I think UT's linemen are going to be faster on both sides of the ball. In general, that is what sets the SEC apart from other conferences. There are fast skill players and DB's in every conference throughout all the FBS. The SEC has a slight advantage there but it is truly pretty marginal and does not have to be a factor. The real, distinct difference is the combination of size, power, and speed you see on the lines in the SEC.

I am not predicting a UT win though I will be a lot less surprised with one than most people here. I am predicting this is a much more difficult physical, man to man match up than many seem to think.

Like any other team that plays the Ducks, it comes down to whether Jones can frustrate a strategy and system that has proven to be very, very successful.

You score quick by emphasizing smaller, faster RB's with constant big play potential. Your WR's are expected to be good WR's and your QB a good passer but you do not design to be a vertical passing team. You expect and get great perimeter blocking from your WR's and that more than anything else may set your offense apart from everyone else. You had only 20 pass plays of over 25 yds all last year but 43 rushing plays over 25 yds. That's pretty amazing considering that Clemson led the NCAA in pass plays over 25 yds at only 51.

You sort of have a zig vs zag strategy. You use a big play run game to put pressure on other teams then focus more on pass rush and pass D than run D to take away what most teams try to do to keep up with you.


This is sort of Jones' mentality too though. He emphasizes the pass more than your program has but he's still a run oriented guy. He basically wants to do most of the same things you do. He's publicly said he wants to run over 90 plays on O. That's a high goal for this era. All this together means it comes down to how well the teams are coached and how well they match up physically. The latter... I feel comfortable saying UT has a good handle on.

As far as coaching, even with a change your system does not change so your players are recruited for it and integrated into it. UT does not truly know what they have in Jones... but neither does Oregon. They can review Cincy film but Jones has far more talent now than he's ever had anywhere even if it was not specifically recruited to run his system.

Coaching intangibles... I like Jones alot but admit I do not know that aspect of your new coach. "Experts" have labeled Jones one of the best HC motivators in CFB... I guess we will see soon.
 
Of course, the Ducks defense has always been a stop the run first defense. Make they beat us in the air type of philosophy. This match up is where I think the game gets decided.

I will defer to your opinion here but that's not what the stats seem to reflect. In a somewhat pass happy conference, your pass D was pretty good. Your run D was pretty average last year.

It appears to me that your system is a zig when they zag design. Your big plays come from the run game then you turn around and try to limit with a good pass rush and a big play secondary what your opponent usually has to do to keep up with you. You certainly don't want to give up big plays to opponents in the run game but seem to rely on the fact that most teams cannot lineup and run a 14 play drive on the ground with 3 yards and a cloud of dust.

Stanford was actually able to have some good balance and avoid the big play with you guys last year. They thwarted the system.

The psychology is very similar to what Spurrier used to to at UF with his fun and gun. He scored fast and dared you to keep up. Once you began to throw the ball and attempt to stay up... he had you. He laughingly said something to the effect once that he told his DC that he didn't care if the other team scored or if he forced a 3-n-out/turnover... he just wanted the ball back fast so he could call more plays.
 
I think UT has faster WR's as a group though young. The top two apparent RB's have similar speed though your guy has probably proven himself more and Neal has much better size and power.

It sounds like you haven't actually seen them play recently. If you believe this, then you must be looking at Rivals 40 times or something. De' Anthony Thomas is a little guy but he can flat out fly. Marshall out of Georgia is probably the only guy we'll see all year with similar speed.

Your QB has to be a runner so there's no comparison there. Safeties are probably close but UT has three very good ones. I am not sure what UT has at CB except athletes. They do have those. Oregon has recruited the secondary well from what I can tell. Though I know you have some well thought of DL's, I feel very comfortable saying that UT's front 7 is faster than yours. Not necessarily better... that to me is where this coaching staff earns its money... but faster and bigger and probably stronger.

What are you basing this off of? Aside from Maggitt and Sapp, who has even above average speed?

I think UT's linemen are going to be faster on both sides of the ball. In general, that is what sets the SEC apart from other conferences.

Our O-Line is big, strong and skilled but I don't see fast. This is our biggest advantage over Oregon and we don't need speed for it to be an advantage. I just don't see it on the D-Line either. We should be strong against the run but we don't have any pass rushers.

Your analysis appears to be based upon what you see on paper, which is fine, but I don't think it tells the whole story. Due to my location and the fact that they are a fun team to watch, I've seen quite a few Oregon games and they are pretty fast all around. Teams like LSU and Bama have them beat in all around team speed, but not many other teams do. We have a size advantage in general and we have a big advantage on the O-Line. We've got to dominate their line on offense and run the ball well all game to have a chance to win. We are not going to outclass them with team speed.
 
Another place where UT could really turn this game is WR. They're young and lack experience but UT has 4 guys with very good athleticism/speed over 6'3" that will see PT vs Oregon. Croom and North have the potential to become a match up nightmare mirroring each other on the outside this fall.

But again with the inexperience, we really don't know if we have anything at the WR position or not. When the lights come on... will that talent actually turn into production?
 
Another place where UT could really turn this game is WR. They're young and lack experience but UT has 4 guys with very good athleticism/speed over 6'3" that will see PT vs Oregon. Croom and North have the potential to become a match up nightmare mirroring each other on the outside this fall.

But again with the inexperience, we really don't know if we have anything at the WR position or not. When the lights come on... will that talent actually turn into production?

I agree with this. If it were later in the season, I'd take our talent over their experience every day, but this early we'll just have to wait and see how North, Croom and others progress. Unfortunately, I don't think we'll really know for sure until September 14th.
 
It sounds like you haven't actually seen them play recently. If you believe this, then you must be looking at Rivals 40 times or something. De' Anthony Thomas is a little guy but he can flat out fly. Marshall out of Georgia is probably the only guy we'll see all year with similar speed.
Actually when the team ran laser timed 40's last year, Neal was either the outright fastest guy on the team or just behind C Patterson last year. IIRC, he had a laser timed 40 around 4.3 seconds. He's also one of the lb for lb strongest guys on the team and has been iirc since he arrived. Nothing to do with Rivals and certainly no disrespect for Thomas.

Athletically, Neal really does have the tools to be elite. There has been a disconnect somewhere though. Hopefully Jones and Co will figure it out.



What are you basing this off of? Aside from Maggitt and Sapp, who has even above average speed?
Brewer has moderate safety speed but very good LB speed.



Our O-Line is big, strong and skilled but I don't see fast.
Then you flat out don't see. Even playing overweight last year they were fast. At least the first 7 guys on UT's OL are outstanding athletes for their positions and all are Jr's/Sr's I believe. Let's put it in this context. Richardson as a Sophomore handled Clowney better than anyone else. I don't think Oregon has anyone in the same realm as Clowney at an defensive position but especially their DL. If I am not mistaken, Tiny recently commented on how much better his conditioning was this year than last...

I just don't see it on the D-Line either. We should be strong against the run but we don't have any pass rushers.
Very apparently... you don't have to see it for it to be there. Those guys are good athletes. I am not saying they've been great players... but they are STILL very good athletes. Couch in particular is very fast for a DT.

Your analysis appears to be based upon what you see on paper,
No. It really isn't. It is based on assessing the athleticism of those guys without being biased by how poorly they have been coached and especially last year on D. Three or four of this years first 7 OL's have already seen Oregon... as Fr... and they were better athletes than who they faced then.

I've seen quite a few Oregon games and they are pretty fast all around. Teams like LSU and Bama have them beat in all around team speed, but not many other teams do.
But they pay a price by sacrificing size. I would not agree that their OL's have a speed advantage straight up but let's say they are equal or a little faster/quicker to take that off the table. They are going to avg about 295 lbs on the OL... UT will STILL avg well over 310. That's power... and it matters.

We have a size advantage in general and we have a big advantage on the O-Line. We've got to dominate their line on offense and run the ball well all game to have a chance to win. We are not going to outclass them with team speed.
Maybe you misunderstand then. My response was not a diss against Oregon. It was a response to those who seem to believe the Oregon is just going to outclass UT athletically and particularly with overall team speed. I don't think that's the case at all. I think the difference is Oregon's system... what they do to pressure their opponents first into playing their game and then trying to stop them to catch up. They've matched athletes well to that system for several years now. It effectively makes them look faster than they are... which in some cases is already pretty fast.

I would say it is the opposite of the Sunseri effect on UT's defensive players last year. If guys are poorly coached, playing in poorly conceived schemes, and subject to playcalling that routeinly puts them in a position to fail... even guys with elite athleticism are just going to look like terrible players.
 
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I personally think Oregon's defense is going to determine the point spread in this game. Sure I think Oregon is going to win, I'm a Duck. Just as I'd expect Vol fans to expect to win. I really think the passing game of UT is going to have to not turn the ball over. If the QB throws a pick 6 or two to those young receivers the Ducks will be very tough to beat. Tenn has a great Oline and should give plenty of time to throw, but if the Ducks blitz and get some pressure things could get interesting. If UT can just stick to the run and pass when they want to it will be difficult for the Duck defense.

Of course, the Ducks defense has always been a stop the run first defense. Make they beat us in the air type of philosophy. This match up is where I think the game gets decided.

I want to say that I have nothing but respect for Oregon, they are a good program and you guys have classy fans. You are certainly legitimate national title contenders as some of our fans have stated in this thread.

But...

we play legitimate national title contenders every year and every year we have one of the toughest schedules in the nation, so that's not unusual for us. So that isn't going to be as big of an advantage for you guys as some believe.

I really think this is set up perfectly for us to upset you.
Here is why.

Last year if we keep the 4-3 and coach Wilcox we are a 9-10 win ball team and end up the year ranked in the top 20. Which would have everyone looking at this team differently this year. This team is far better than last years record showed. Because of that Oregon is going to overlook us and go into this game thinking its a easy win and why shouldn't they ? The last time we played you beat us soundly and we haven't had a winning season in 3 years.

On the flip side our team is embarrassed about last year and has something to prove. This will be a shockingly different team this year compared to last year. Coach Butch Jones and staff are doing something really, really special up on the Hill and this team is energized and hungry. I have been a college football fan for about 47 years now and I have never seen anything quite like whats going on in Knoxville.

The Tennessee team that will walk out on the field in Oregon will be fired up and far more talented then the Ducks expect. For the first time in years they will believe in themselves and they will be ready to play for 4 quarters. They might get beat but they will play like champions.

The question is, will the Ducks be able to adjust in time.
 
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Allegedly he received money for autographs, Johnny Football is in deep do-do w/the NCAA. He may not even see the field this year for what he's done. So the Heisman could go to Justin Worley this year as he could catch on fire & play lights out like Manziel did as the surprise that he was in 2012. You just never ever know what to expect in college football.

That was my point everyone acts like everything from last year will undoubtedly happen again
 
Actually when the team ran laser timed 40's last year, Neal was either the outright fastest guy on the team or just behind C Patterson last year. IIRC, he had a laser timed 40 around 4.3 seconds. He's also one of the lb for lb strongest guys on the team and has been iirc since he arrived. Nothing to do with Rivals and certainly no disrespect for Thomas.

Athletically, Neal really does have the tools to be elite. There has been a disconnect somewhere though. Hopefully Jones and Co will figure it out.

I've seen those numbers quoted for Neal, but I just haven't seen it in-game. Maybe he just doesn't carry his pads as well but I've never seen him do anything approaching this:
De'Anthony Thomas Highlights 2012 Season - YouTube

(apologies in advance for terrible music - skip ahead 55 seconds to get to actual highlights)
 
I will defer to your opinion here but that's not what the stats seem to reflect. In a somewhat pass happy conference, your pass D was pretty good. Your run D was pretty average last year.

It appears to me that your system is a zig when they zag design. Your big plays come from the run game then you turn around and try to limit with a good pass rush and a big play secondary what your opponent usually has to do to keep up with you. You certainly don't want to give up big plays to opponents in the run game but seem to rely on the fact that most teams cannot lineup and run a 14 play drive on the ground with 3 yards and a cloud of dust.

Stanford was actually able to have some good balance and avoid the big play with you guys last year. They thwarted the system.

The psychology is very similar to what Spurrier used to to at UF with his fun and gun. He scored fast and dared you to keep up. Once you began to throw the ball and attempt to stay up... he had you. He laughingly said something to the effect once that he told his DC that he didn't care if the other team scored or if he forced a 3-n-out/turnover... he just wanted the ball back fast so he could call more plays.

First I hate the "stats" game and really not interested in even attempting to do that dance. I was in a profession filled with "STATS" and know what can be done with them. It's one of the reasons the SEC has regulations against "Cherry Picking" stats. That's SEC as in Securities Exchange Commission.

I will say Oregon will throw pretty much everything they have at slowing down the run, preventing the break away and eventually hoping for a third and long. They typically do well in Red Zone defense and that's really what matters.
 
You've got to love our Vol fans, we've won exactly 2 SEC games in 2 years, yet predicting victory over Oregon. We have the smartest fans in all of college football.
Go Vols
 
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