Possible to get double bye still?

#126
#126
golfballs said:
Hmmmmm......

Do we want UK to beat Florida so we still have a chance to get the 5 seed and play Ole Miss? Or do we want Florida to win, Ole Miss to win and Bama to win? IIRC that would make us a 4 seed matched up against possibly UK as a 5 seed.

The former might put UK still in contention with us on the bubble.

I think we want the latter. Because if Bama were to lose we would be a 3 seed and most likely play Mizzou. AND it would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from Florida
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I want UT to beat Mizzou.
 
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#127
#127
golfballs said:
Hmmmmm......

Do we want UK to beat Florida so we still have a chance to get the 5 seed and play Ole Miss? Or do we want Florida to win, Ole Miss to win and Bama to win? IIRC that would make us a 4 seed matched up against possibly UK as a 5 seed.

The former might put UK still in contention with us on the bubble.

I think we want the latter. Because if Bama were to lose we would be a 3 seed and most likely play Mizzou. AND it would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from Florida
Click to expand...

Florida needs to beat UK...can't worry about our matchups.
 
#128
#128
golfballs said:
Hmmmmm......

Do we want UK to beat Florida so we still have a chance to get the 5 seed and play Ole Miss? Or do we want Florida to win, Ole Miss to win and Bama to win? IIRC that would make us a 4 seed matched up against possibly UK as a 5 seed.

The former might put UK still in contention with us on the bubble.

I think we want the latter. Because if Bama were to lose we would be a 3 seed and most likely play Mizzou. AND it would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from Florida
Click to expand...

So does ky losing to florida and us winning make us the 4seed and Kentucky the 5seed??
 
#129
#129
Matches up perfectly...UK 6 points better, give ga 3.5 points for home court and you get 2.5...because folks like to bet on UK the line comes out at 3/3.5

BruinVol said:
I did that and I am seeig Kentucky with a rating of 85, Tenn 82, Georgia 79, and auburn 72. None of those seem to match what your are saying.
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#130
#130
PowerSweep said:
Matches up perfectly...UK 6 points better, give ga 3.5 points for home court and you get 2.5...because folks like to bet on UK the line comes out at 3/3.5
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Now I follow you. Thanks


So the auburn line would prove your theory off by 2.5pts with it only being a 5pt number.
 
#133
#133
PowerSweep said:
By Sagarin's numbers it should have been 6.5-7 pt.line...was 5, so yeah, was 1.5-2 point discrepancy
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Good talk! I enjoy numbers and look forward to following these ratings in regards to betting lines. It will be interesting to see but as I said I would bet large amount we are favored. We will see tomorrow night and one us will be on here claiming victory and the other hiding! Lol j/k
 
#135
#135
BruinVol said:
Good talk! I enjoy numbers and look forward to following these ratings in regards to betting lines. It will be interesting to see but as I said I would bet large amount we are favored. We will see tomorrow night and one us will be on here claiming victory and the other hiding! Lol j/k
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Hehe...indeed...I will give you props if you are right
 
#139
#139
I'm starting to think that the SEC bubble teams need to make it to Saturday to get in. Basically, the bubble teams will be seeded 2-6. Mizz in there as well. Seeds 4-5, 3-6, 2-7 all play on Friday if it goes chalk.

Sets up essentially play in games. Maybe make it to Saturday and you're in. This is why I think the better seed would be better for us than getting an extra win against an auburn or South Carolina.

Imagine we are playing UK, Ole Miss or Bama on Friday. I'd guess that a win over us may leapfrog them past us on the bubble and Thursdays win would mean squat for us then. Same goes for us if we win.
 
#140
#140
BigZiti09 said:
I'm starting to think that the SEC bubble teams need to make it to Saturday to get in. Basically, the bubble teams will be seeded 2-6. Mizz in there as well. Seeds 4-5, 3-6, 2-7 all play on Friday if it goes chalk.

Sets up essentially play in games. Maybe make it to Saturday and you're in. This is why I think the better seed would be better for us than getting an extra win against an auburn or South Carolina.

Imagine we are playing UK, Ole Miss or Bama on Friday. I'd guess that a win over us may leapfrog them past us on the bubble and Thursdays win would mean squat for us then. Same goes for us if we win.
Click to expand...

I don't think well be playing Bama
 
#141
#141
Modeled afters Hubbs' article:

If Tennessee beats Missouri, Alabama loses to Georgia, Kentucky loses to Florida, and Ole Miss beats LSU...
*(records amongst tied group head-to-head in parenthesis)

1. Florida
2. Ole Miss
3. Tennessee (3-2)
4. Kentucky (2-2)
5. Alabama (2-2)
6. Missouri (1-2)
Kentucky/Alabama tie breaker: Both teams lost to Florida once; defer to record vs. Ole Miss - Kentucky beat Ole Miss once, Alabama lost in their only meeting


If Tennessee beats Missouri, Alabama beats Georgia, Ole Miss loses to LSU, and Kentucky loses to Florida
1. Florida
2. Alabama
3. Kentucky (3-1)
4. Ole Miss (3-2)
5. Tennessee (2-3)
6.Missouri (1-3)

If Tennessee beats Missouri, Alabama loses at Georgia, Ole Miss loses to LSU and Kentucky beats Florida
1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Ole Miss (4-1)
4. Missouri (2-2)
5. Tennessee (2-3)
6. Alabama (1-3)

If Tennessee beats Missouri, Alabama loses to Georgia, Ole Miss loses to LSU and Kentucky loses to Florida
1. Florida
2. Ole Miss (4-2)
3. Kentucky (3-2)
4. Tennessee (3-4)
5. Missouri (2-3)
6. Alabama (2-3)
Missouri split the series with Florida 1-1, Alabama lost the only meeting. Tie break goes to Missouri.


If Tennessee beat Missouri, Alabama loses to Georgia, Kentucky beats Florida and Ole Miss beats LSU
1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Ole Miss
4. Tennessee (2-1)
5. Missouri (1-1)
6. Alabama (1-2)

If Tennessee beats Missouri, Kentucky loses to Florida, Alabama beats Georgia and Ole Miss beats LSU
1. Florida
2. Ole Miss
3. Alabama
4. Tennessee (2-1)
5. Kentucky (2-1)
6. Missour (0-2)
Tennessee beat Florida so they get the 4 seed.
 
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#143
#143
This is crazy, we could also drop down a couple seeds. We have to stay away from the 8/9 seed thus away from Florida however if we could beat them again then that might be best case scenario.
 
#144
#144
No matter how it shakes down, UT has a tough route to the semis...Mizz, Ole Miss or UK on Friday anyway you slice it, assuming chalk. I would take UK first, Ole Miss next and Mizzou last. I don't want to have try and beat Mizzou in back to back games. Assuming we handle biz on saturday of course...
 
#145
#145
Mizz is not on bubble to poster above and for anyone wanting UK, drawing them negates a big home court edge
 
#146
#146
PowerSweep said:
Mizz is not on bubble to poster above and for anyone wanting UK, drawing them negates a big home court edge
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Although I see your point and think there will be a lot of orange in Nashville, I wouldn't call it a "home court edge." For the record, I'd rather not have to play Kentucky.
 
#148
#148
PowerSweep said:
Mizz is not on bubble to poster above and for anyone wanting UK, drawing them negates a big home court edge
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I realize that Mizzou is not on the bubble. But my concerns are not bubble teams, per se. My concern is UT winning as many as possible to solidify their NCAA chances. I feel that drawing UK gives us that chance better than drawing Mizzou or Ole Miss. I also understand UK travels well but I am more concerned with matchups. I fear for what will happen if we lose our first game in the tourney and teams such as Ole Miss, Bama and UK advance past us. I think our resume is better than all 3. But it's tight between us, Bama and Ole Miss and I hate for a poor showing in the tourney to result in us missing the dance (see last year). UK losing tonight should kill their chances. But they are UK. If they advance far enough, don't think for a minute that the committee won't give them a pass just because of their name and traveling potential.

Who would you rather see? Ole Miss, Mizzou or UK?

Also, how many SEC teams do you see getting in? Florida, Mizzou and 1 of UT, Ole Miss, Bama, UK? If it's one, we need to go as far as possible. If it's two, we have a bit more leeway, but it is tight amongst those four teams.
 
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#150
#150
In order or preference clearly Ole Miss, then UK, then Mizzou. Playing in an empty gym close between ole miss and uk...uk will have several thousand fans and it's not an insignificant factor imo.

{OrangeBlooded} said:
I realize that Mizzou is not on the bubble. But my concerns are not bubble teams, per se. My concern is UT winning as many as possible to solidify their NCAA chances. I feel that drawing UK gives us that chance better than drawing Mizzou or Ole Miss. I also understand UK travels well but I am more concerned with matchups. I fear for what will happen if we lose our first game in the tourney and teams such as Ole Miss, Bama and UK advance past us. I think our resume is better than all 3. But it's tight between us, Bama and Ole Miss and I hate for a poor showing in the tourney to result in us missing the dance (see last year). UK losing tonight should kill their chances. But they are UK. If they advance far enough, don't think for a minute that the committee won't give them a pass just because of their name and traveling potential.

Who would you rather see? Ole Miss, Mizzou or UK?
Click to expand...
 
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