Possible to get double bye still?

#101
#101
golfballs said:
Beating Florida had a much bigger effect on our tourney hopes than losing to Georgia did.
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Not really. Florida win put us into the first four out. Georgia loss dropped us out of conversation. Then about 8 or 9 teams in front of us lost Saturday night bringing us back into the conversation.
 
#102
#102
saintvol said:
Not really. Florida win put us into the first four out. Georgia loss dropped us out of conversation. Then about 8 or 9 teams in front of us lost Saturday night bringing us back into the conversation.
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Huh? We moved up Saturday after the loss. We were first 4 out, lost to Georgia and moved to last 4 in. Bizarre.

Edit: never mind. I am with you now.
 
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#105
#105
BruinVol said:
Lines don't come out until late night before game day
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Tomorrow around 6-7E they will be out, and I expect Mizzou to be -1 or a pick em game...If you go by Sagarin Mizzou is -1.5; Rarely does vegas line differ by that much from Sagarin
 
#106
#106
PowerSweep said:
If you go by Sagarin Mizzou is -1.5; Rarely does vegas line differ by that much from Sagarin
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Even when considering where games are played?

Tenn was right at ten points better than auburn according to sagarin but only a 5pt vegas line. Home court matters a lot with vegas. I would make huge wager the vols will be favored on Saturday and my guess is around 3.
 
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#107
#107
That's figuring in HCA..would think mizzou would be about -8/9 at home vs us.. hey, I'm not saying it's impossible you're right.. But if my life depended on getting it exactly right I'd say Mizz-1...in <24 hrs I guess we'll see

BruinVol said:
Even when considering where games are played?
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#108
#108
BruinVol said:
Even when considering where games are played?

Tenn was right at ten points better than auburn according to sagarin but only a 5pt vegas line. Home court matters a lot with vegas. I would make huge wager the vols will be favored on Saturday and my guess is around 3.
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RPIforecast has Missouri a 2 point favorite fwiw
 
#109
#109
PowerSweep said:
That's figuring in HCA..would think mizzou would be about -8/9 at home vs us.. hey, I'm not saying it's impossible you're right.. But if my life depended on getting it exactly right I'd say Mizz-1...in <24 hrs I guess we'll see
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I agree, I'd be shocked if we were favored, especially by 3.
 
#112
#112
BruinVol said:
Kentucky was a 2.5pt favorite right after our 30pt beat down at home vs Missouri. We will get same kind of number
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Rupp home court isn't greater than TBA home court?

Also, just because we beat them many thought they were still the better team...

Also, Missouri is coming off a flawless game...

We'll see soon enough but I seriously doubt it's tenn by 3.
 
#113
#113
Well darn...I wish we could bet on this meaningless outcome...fwiw ut was indeed -6'/7 according to sagarin but -5 was where it opened...accordingly when figuring hca mizz is -1'/2 on sagarin...you're gonna have to have a 4-5 point discrepancy for you to be right. Impossible? Nope...but I'd take that bet every day.
 
#114
#114
bleedingTNorange said:
Rupp home court isn't greater than TBA home court?

Also, just because we beat them many thought they were still the better team...

Also, Missouri is coming off a flawless game...

We'll see soon enough but I seriously doubt it's tenn by 3.
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I didn't say we were better than Kentucky but in terms of vegas we will be right on par with them IMO. 3 is my guess but I feel very confident we will be favored
 
#115
#115
PowerSweep said:
Well darn...I wish we could bet on this meaningless outcome...fwiw ut was indeed -6'/7 according to sagarin but -5 was where it opened...accordingly when figuring hca mizz is -1'/2 on sagarin...you're gonna have to have a 4-5 point discrepancy for you to be right. Impossible? Nope...but I'd take that bet every day.
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Power can you tell me which numbers are which in sagarin. I am seeing tenn having a number of 82 with auburn having a 72. Am I reading that wrong?
 
#116
#116
Always gotta remember cats are a huge public bet...you'll rarely see public on opposite side..tonight f example thespread.com shows 62% of bets on UK over Ga
 
#117
#117
PowerSweep said:
Always gotta remember cats are a huge public bet...you'll rarely see public on opposite side..tonight f example thespread.com shows 62% of bets on UK over Ga
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Good point. Compare ga and Kent sagarin rating? The line tonight is 2.5
 
#118
#118
Yup..that's right...always use the predictor..public likes to bet home teams (just like they bet favorites and overs) so they usually add a half point or full point to what sagarin lists as hca there (3.31)
 
#119
#119
PowerSweep said:
Yup..that's right...always use the predictor..public likes to bet home teams (just like they bet favorites and overs) so they usually add a half point or full point to what sagarin lists as hca there (3.31)
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So Kentucky is 3pts better according to sagarin?

Help me read the rankings?? I am serious I am seeing Kentucky is 6pts better in sagarin ratings
 
#120
#120
BruinVol said:
So Kentucky is 3pts better according to sagarin?

Help me read the rankings?? I am serious I am seeing Kentucky is 6pts better in sagarin ratings
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bingo...throw in hca and we get 2.5..people like to bet UK so line closes at 3/3.5
 
#124
#124
PowerSweep said:
On my smarphone...google.sagarin and it'll take you to usatoday website w his rating for all sports..choose by conference to make it easier to compare
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I did that and I am seeig Kentucky with a rating of 85, Tenn 82, Georgia 79, and auburn 72. None of those seem to match what your are saying.
 
#125
#125
Hmmmmm......

Do we want UK to beat Florida so we still have a chance to get the 5 seed and play Ole Miss? Or do we want Florida to win, Ole Miss to win and Bama to win? IIRC that would make us a 4 seed matched up against possibly UK as a 5 seed.

The former might put UK still in contention with us on the bubble.

I think we want the latter. Because if Bama were to lose we would be a 3 seed and most likely play Mizzou. AND it would put us on the opposite side of the bracket from Florida
 
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