Possible to get double bye still?

[SJAVol32]

SEC scenarios, tournament tiebreakers, and the Tennessee Vols | The Mighty Quinn | GoVolsXtra.com break down by Quinn

 

[golfballs]

Picture should be clear after tonight...part of me feels UK may lose.

It's going to be a very close game, IMO. I still think UK has the edge.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

It's going to be a very close game, IMO. I still think UK has the edge.

They likely do...UK has nobody who can stop KCP, he needs to shoot 30+ times.

 

[golfballs]

SEC scenarios, tournament tiebreakers, and the Tennessee Vols | The Mighty Quinn | GoVolsXtra.com break down by Quinn

I believe he's incorrect about the only way to get a 4 seed.

If UK splits, Ole Miss wins, Bama loses and we win. The standings would look like this:

1. UF 15-3
2. UK 12-6
2. Ole Miss 12-6
4. Bama 11-7
4. Mizzou 11-7
4. UT 11-7

Among those teams UT is 2-1, Mizzou 1-1, and Bama 1-2. That would make UT the 4 seed.

Also, if UK loses both, Bama wins, and Ole Miss wins:

1 UF - 15-3
2. Ole Miss - 12-6
2. Bama - 12-5
4. UT 11-7
4. UK 11-7
4. Mizzou 11-7

We would be 2-1, UK would be 2-1, and Mizzou would be 0-2. It then goes to head to head between us and UK. Tie there, so it reverts to our record vs. the #1 seed. Since we beat Florida, we win the tie-break and get the 4th seed.

 

[saintvol]

I wouldn't say UVA is a lock to make the tournament.

But they have more quality wins than us. 2 wins vs. Top 25, 4 wins vs Top 50, they are 7-2 vs. the top 100 where as we don't even have a winning record against the same group. They also have a winning record vs the Top 150, where we are merely a .500 team.

They've lost to worse teams than us, but more importantly they've beaten more quality opponents than we have. That is why a win vs. Vanderbilt is meaningless. We need better wins on our resume. There's a reason Lunardi didn't move us down after losing to UGA

You do realize that Lunardi moved us way down after we lost to Georgia. We weren't even in the next 4 out at that point. Then every single bubble team in front of us proceeded to lose that evening and we moved to the last team in. The Georgia loss actually moved us way down.

 

[golfballs]

Hate to say it, but there is no way we can win and get 6 seed. If we win, Florida is on our side of the bracket.

The best case scenario then is to root for Ole Miss to lose, Bama to win, and for UK to beat UGA but lose to UF. It's the only scenario in which we'd play someone other than UK or Mizzou in our 2nd game. And I think that's actually a very plausible scenario.

1 - Florida
2 - Bama
3 - UK
4 - Ole Miss
5 - UT
6 - Mizzou

Our first game would be the winner of USC or Auburn/MSU(whoever wins this weekend). Then Ole Miss in our second game, followed most likely by Florida.

If we beat Mizzou, Auburn, and Ole Miss, and lose to UF, I think we would most likely get in the dance.

If we beat Mizzou, Auburn, and lose to Ole Miss? Right on the bubble.

If we lose to Mizzou, we would need to get to the Championship game to get back on the bubble.

 

[golfballs]

You do realize that Lunardi moved us way down after we lost to Georgia. We weren't even in the next 4 out at that point. Then every single bubble team in front of us proceeded to lose that evening and we moved to the last team in. The Georgia loss actually moved us way down.

Obviously not way down. But it wasn't a bad enough loss to kick us out of contention. that's my point.

 

[utvolz98]

I believe he's incorrect about the only way to get a 4 seed.

If UK splits, Ole Miss wins, Bama loses and we win. The standings would look like this:

1. UF 15-3
2. UK 12-6
2. Ole Miss 12-6
4. Bama 11-7
4. Mizzou 11-7
4. UT 11-7

Among those teams UT is 2-1, Mizzou 1-1, and Bama 1-2. That would make UT the 4 seed.

Also, if UK loses both, Bama wins, and Ole Miss wins:

1 UF - 15-3
2. Ole Miss - 12-6
2. Bama - 12-5
4. UT 11-7
4. UK 11-7
4. Mizzou 11-7

We would be 2-1, UK would be 2-1, and Mizzou would be 0-2. It then goes to head to head between us and UK. Tie there, so it reverts to our record vs. the #1 seed. Since we beat Florida, we win the tie-break and get the 4th seed.

This is correct. Perhaps Hubbs was implying the most likely scenario in which TN gets the 4 seed?

 

[Shaun1985]

After reading that article, I know I'm not crazy.

 

[golfballs]

After reading that article, I know I'm not crazy.

I thought you said we'd get a double-bye as long as we win regardless of what Ole Miss does

 

[golfballs]

Who do you think will be favored on Satuday, us or Missouri? I'm guessing Missouri will be a 1 point favorite.

 

[BruinVol]

Who do you think will be favored on Satuday, us or Missouri? I'm guessing Missouri will be a 1 point favorite.

Vols -3

 

[golfballs]

Vols -3

Objectively, Missouri is a better team and should win this game. The wildcard are the intangibles... Mizzou has already locked up a tourney berth, UT is playing for their post-season lives, last game at home, etc. I'll be interested to see.

 

[golfballs]

Under normal circumstances I think Missouri would be a 2.5 point favorite.

 

[BruinVol]

Under normal circumstances I think Missouri would be a 2.5 point favorite.

Kentucky was a 2.5pt favorite at home against them. We will be around the same number

 

[Shaun1985]

I thought you said we'd get a double-bye as long as we win regardless of what Ole Miss does

Yes. I was saying the exact same thing he was, minus Kentucky. What is the difference between 2-2 and 2-3 when one of the 2 wins came from the other team. It just wouldn't make sense.

 

[TennesseeFan07]

If Ole Miss loses, it's almost certain that we would be a 6 seed (of course assuming we beat Mizzou). The only way under those conditions that we wouldn't is if UK gets swept and Bama loses.

EDIT:

I'm wrong. If UK splits, Ole Miss loses, and we win, then we would get a 5 seed. Regardless of what Bama does.

If Bama wins:
1 - Florida
2 - Bama
3 - UK
4 - Ole Miss
5 - UT
6 - Mizzou
(Ole Miss would be 2nd round opp)

if Bama loses:
1 - Florida
2 - UK
3 - Ole Miss
4 - Mizzou
5 - UT
6 - Bama
(Mizzou would be 2nd round opp)

I'll take scenario one.

 

[saintvol]

Obviously not way down. But it wasn't a bad enough loss to kick us out of contention. that's my point.

I would consider dropping 8 spots a pretty big drop when you are talking about 12 bubble teams total.

 

[golfballs]

Yes. I was saying the exact same thing he was, minus Kentucky. What is the difference between 2-2 and 2-3 when one of the 2 wins came from the other team. It just wouldn't make sense.

2-2 is a win percentage of .5
2-3 is a win percentage of .4

.5>.4

 

[golfballs]

I would consider dropping 8 spots a pretty big drop when you are talking about 12 bubble teams total.

Beating Florida had a much bigger effect on our tourney hopes than losing to Georgia did.

 

[Shaun1985]

2-2 is a win percentage of .5
2-3 is a win percentage of .4

.5>.4

Is it not silly for Missouri to get the bye over Tennessee when Tennessee won their only matchup and they have the same amount of SEC victories? Math is math but it makes no sense. I'm just speaking IMO.

 

[BruinVol]

Is it not silly for Missouri to get the bye over Tennessee when Tennessee won their only matchup and they have the same amount of SEC victories? Math is math but it makes no sense. I'm just speaking IMO.

In a three way tie is the tie breaker not applied including all three and then started all over again to decide the tie breaker for the remaining two(where head to head would come in to play)??

 

[bleedingTNorange]

.

 

[PowerSweep]

Golfballs has it right...Mizzou-1/E Sat

 

[golfballs]

In a three way tie is the tie breaker not applied including all three and then started all over again to decide the tie breaker for the remaining two(where head to head would come in to play)??

No