Reality is we do have a chance...

#29
#29
BigPapaCat said:
I read the post. Doesnt mean I have to agree.
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so your calling joe lunardi and other experts who make projections wrong?

if so thats fine i just find it funny that a uk fan is gonna come here and when right in front of them it says if tenn does this they are in, and your gonna say no they're not its kind of ironic.

thats all
 
#30
#30
BigPapaCat said:
...
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that was addressed to tennessee fans :)


question: if you are a committee member and ut goes 5-1, finishes 18-13, is the 5th best team in the sec, wins 3 in sec t and is 21-14, how do you say sorry you're not invited but, 2 teams below you are? remember again they finish 5th best in the sec. also remember they will have the 5th best rpi in the sec, how would you say you're not invited but the 2 teams lower than you are?

how do you answer that?
 
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#32
#32
Good thread, but keep in mind that your RPI predictions are just that, predictions. There are 3 weeks of basketball to be played, giving current bubble teams the opportunity to put together a better body of work. Also, our current "quality" wins could decrease in quality. My point is, there are just too many factors to say with certainty that an at large is possible with that first scenario.

Also, to say "we can easily go 5-1 down the stretch" is a little nuts IMO. I only count 1, maybe 2 "guaranteed" wins. If we continue to get solid performances out of guys like Hall & McRae, our chances are better, but history has shown this team to be inconsistent, especially on the road. Arky and @Bama games will tell us a lot about this team.
 
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#33
#33
bleedingTNorange said:
so your calling joe lunardi and other experts who make projections wrong?

if so thats fine i just find it funny that a uk fan is gonna come here and when right in front of them it says if tenn does this they are in, and your gonna say no they're not its kind of ironic.

thats all
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Im not fighting. If you dont agree with me dont get mad.
 
#34
#34
l3rewski said:
Good thread, but keep in mind that your RPI predictions are just that, predictions. There are 3 weeks of basketball to be played, giving current bubble teams the opportunity to put together a better body of work. Also, our current "quality" wins could decrease in quality. My point is, there are just too many factors to say with certainty that an at large is possible with that first scenario.

Also, to say "we can easily go 5-1 down the stretch" is a little nuts IMO. I only count 1, maybe 2 "guaranteed" wins. If we continue to get solid performances out of guys like Hall & McRae, our chances are better, but history has shown this team to be inconsistent, especially on the road. Arky and @Bama games will tell us a lot about this team.
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with that first scenario we most likely are going to finish 4th or 5th in the sec, how does the committee not take the 4th or 5th best team, if they make a little run in the sec t?

we are favored right now in 3 of those games, and if bama doesnt have their guys back we will be favored in that one as well, thats 4. easy may not have been the correct word, maybe saying we could very likeliy would have been better. this team has proven they can beat anyone and currently have won 3 in a row, i see no reason not to think they cant win 5 of the remaining games.

will they? i dont know, but apparently vegas feels pretty good about our chances as i said we are favored. like you eluded to IMO the next 3 games are huge for us. ark, bama, and ole miss are 3 teams we are going to be battling for, for th 4th and 5th positions in the sec. you win against those teams and the picture becomes much clearer.
 
#36
#36
bleedingTNorange said:
you clearly have poor reading skills...

try re-reading and comprehending the OP. winning out is not necessary to make the tournament.
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Actually he may be right. But it depends on what others do in the SEC.
If we ended up with six losses in the SEC and LSU won out they'd be chosen over us.
Also depends on who does better in the tourney.
 
#37
#37
calban said:
Actually he may be right. But it depends on what others do in the SEC.
If we ended up with six losses in the SEC and LSU won out they'd be chosen over us.
Also depends on who does better in the tourney.
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you can say that about bama, ark, and ole miss too though. if they win out they will be chosen over us most likely.

thats why i say its in our hands, if we beat those teams that will go along way towards helping our case. if we win out we are going to be guaranteed a 5th place finish and maybe even higher depending on what vandy and mst do. even going 5-1 losing to lsu, i still see lsu losing a few along the way, i dont think they are that good IMO.

also, if we go 5-1 and lsu goes 6-0, and both make a run in the tourney you can bet on both those teams getting in the tourney not just one. there isnt an unwritten rule that says only 5 get in this year, infact statsheet has 7 getting in i believe.
 
#38
#38
bleedingTNorange said:
you can say that about bama, ark, and ole miss too though. if they win out they will be chosen over us most likely.

thats why i say its in our hands, if we beat those teams that will go along way towards helping our case. if we win out we are going to be guaranteed a 5th place finish and maybe even higher depending on what vandy and mst do. even going 5-1 losing to lsu, i still see lsu losing a few along the way, i dont think they are that good IMO.

also, if we go 5-1 and lsu goes 6-0, and both make a run in the tourney you can bet on both those teams getting in the tourney not just one. there isnt an unwritten rule that says only 5 get in this year, infact statsheet has 7 getting in i believe.
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We swapped places with the ACC in conference RPI this year.
We were 6th last year and placed 5. ACC was 4th and placed 5. This year it's reversed. Don't see any reason why statsheet would say we'll place 7.
 
#39
#39
calban said:
We swapped places with the ACC in conference RPI this year.
We were 6th last year and placed 5. ACC was 4th and placed 5. This year it's reversed. Don't see any reason why statsheet would say we'll place 7.
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just my guess, is because big east placed 11th last year which if i recall correctly was a record for a conference. the big east unless a team wins the tournament that isnt expected to, will not place 11 this year. uconn would make 10 and if they continue their fall that will mean 9, so that could be part of the reason they are expecting there to be more at large bids for sec.

just my 2 cents

edit: statsheet has 8 teams from big east projected to get in at this point, lunardi has 9 with seton hall being his last team in. so thats atleast 2 maybe even 3 more at large that will be available.
 
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#40
#40
bleedingTNorange said:
just my guess, is because big east placed 11th last year which if i recall correctly was a record for a conference. the big east unless a team wins the tournament that isnt expected to, will not place 11 this year. uconn would make 10 and if they continue their fall that will mean 9, so that could be part of the reason they are expecting there to be more at large bids for sec.

just my 2 cents

edit: statsheet has 8 teams from big east projected to get in at this point, lunardi has 9 with seton hall being his last team in. so thats atleast 2 maybe even 3 more at large that will be available.
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Makes sense.
 
#41
#41
calban said:
Makes sense.
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we could definitely benefit from the big east being down this year.

as much as it may suck if uconn bombs out because it takes the glory away from our win, it will free up a spot in the ncaa.

here in about a week we will have a much clearer picture of how things may shape up.
 
#42
#42
next 3 games are huge, we are fighting with arky, bama and ole miss for that 4th/5th position in the sec. IMO, whoever wins those spots and has a decent showing in the sec t(wins atleast 2) will get into the tournament. the committee will most likely take 6 from the sec, so to finish 4th or 5th would be a huge statement for us.


IT ALL STARTS WED @8pm vs ARKANSAS!!!


GBO!!!
 
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#43
#43
bleedingTNorange said:
next 3 games are huge, we are fighting with arky, bama and ole miss for that 4th/5th position in the sec. IMO, whoever wins those spots and has a decent showing in the sec t(wins atleast 2) will get into the tournament. the committee will most likely take 6 from the sec, so to finish 4th or 5th would be a huge statement for us.


IT ALL STARTS WED @8pm vs ARKANSAS!!!


GBO!!!
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I think it started yesterday.
Most including myself expected us to lay an egg in FLA.
We've had 3 good games in a row.
Mental lapses are getting shorter.
Getting stops when we need them.
We may have turned the corner.
 
#44
#44
calban said:
I think it started yesterday.
Most including myself expected us to lay an egg in FLA.
We've had 3 good games in a row.
Mental lapses are getting shorter.
Getting stops when we need them.
We may have turned the corner.
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well yea we had to win yesterday in order to even have a shot, due to the huge rpi boost that was available to us. im just kind of moving on from that game now, and looking forward to the next. basically, the road to the dance starts wednesday, and after a W wednesday it continues saturday...hopefully!

this 3 game stretch has looked very good, players playing much more consistently. the surprising thing in the last 2 games is that we are really getting no contribution from stokes, and yet are playing great. if you'd have told me no stokes for florida, i wouldnt have felt good about our chances at all.

heres my question, assuming stokes recovers for wednesday and is 100%, do we continue to start hall since he is playing really well again, or do we go back to stokes starting? IMO, i think we stick with hall starting, and that brings some firepower with mcrae and stokes coming off the bench.
 
#45
#45
bleedingTNorange said:
well yea we had to win yesterday in order to even have a shot, due to the huge rpi boost that was available to us. im just kind of moving on from that game now, and looking forward to the next. basically, the road to the dance starts wednesday, and after a W wednesday it continues saturday...hopefully!

this 3 game stretch has looked very good, players playing much more consistently. the surprising thing in the last 2 games is that we are really getting no contribution from stokes, and yet are playing great. if you'd have told me no stokes for florida, i wouldnt have felt good about our chances at all.

heres my question, assuming stokes recovers for wednesday and is 100%, do we continue to start hall since he is playing really well again, or do we go back to stokes starting? IMO, i think we stick with hall starting, and that brings some firepower with mcrae and stokes coming off the bench.
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Martin said that Hall had earned the starting spot.
I think he'll continue with Stokes coming off the bench.
probably split minutes down the middle or whoever gets hot.
I think McRae's been the difference in the turn around.
He's finally become the other guard we needed. Proud of him.
 
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#46
#46
I started not to read all that, but I'm glad that i did...Very informative!!:thumbsup:

IMO, there is a good chance that we go 5-1 down the stretch b/c our remaining schedule is very favorable.:)

Still in shock over this big win over UF..Just so unexpected and as the old saying goes,"Expect the unexpected".:rock:
 
#47
#47
calban said:
Martin said that Hall had earned the starting spot.
I think he'll continue with Stokes coming off the bench.
probably split minutes down the middle or whoever gets hot.
I think McRae's been the difference in the turn around.
He's finally become the other guard we needed. Proud of him.
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oh ok i missed that statement from ccm, thats about what i figured though. it also keeps teams from trying to come right at stokes and get him into foul trouble, and as i eluded to, that provides a good pop with mcrae/stokes off the bench.

we talked about him awhile ago, we said that he really was going to need to prove himself, and that if he could we would be a much better team because of it. golden, mbee, mcrae and hall have all played some of their best ball the last 3 games. if we're going to keep up the run they are going to have to continue their good play.
 
#48
#48
smokeyhuntsgators said:
I started not to read all that, but I'm glad that i did...Very informative!!:thumbsup:

IMO, there is a good chance that we go 5-1 down the stretch b/c our remaining schedule is very favorable.:)

Still in shock over this big win over UF..Just so unexpected and as the old saying goes,"Expect the unexpected".:rock:
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im glad you read it, i feared many wouldnt because of the length, but i really didnt want to short change it either, i wanted to make sure it was as informative as possible.

as they say "thats why they play the games".
 
#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
im glad you read it, i feared many wouldnt because of the length, but i really didnt want to short change it either, i wanted to make sure it was as informative as possible.

as they say "thats why they play the games".
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The only reason that I almost didn't read is b/c it has been a lazy day for me and haven't felt like doing anything.:eek:lol:

I figured well if he or she took the time to do all this research and post if on VN, the least I could do is read it b/c I might learn a thing or two more about how all this stuff works.:thumbsup:

I'm definitely no expert so I wouldn't even no where to start on something like this.:unsure:
 
#50
#50
smokeyhuntsgators said:
The only reason that I almost didn't read is b/c it has been a lazy day for me and haven't felt like doing anything.:eek:lol:

I figured well if he or she took the time to do all this research and post if on VN, the least I could do is read it b/c I might learn a thing or two more about how all this stuff works.:thumbsup:

I'm definitely no expert so I wouldn't even no where to start on something like this.:unsure:
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haha. and thats why i posted it. people where starting threads and making comments that there is no way we can make the tournament and i wanted the casual fan to relaize that wasnt true.

people are absolutely free to form their own opinion, but when someone logs on and sees a thread that reality is appreciated, and it talks about how theres no chance of this team making it,that is just false information. so i wanted to give people a thread, who like you stated in your case arent sure of specifics, to come and see for themselves what it'll take.

is it probable that all these things happen and we make it? no

but as you said expect the unexpected and let the teams play the games. if the favorites always won there would be absolutely no point in playing the games.
 
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