Can we get an at large bid to the tournament?
That is the question that seems to be running wild all over VN, ever since we ran out of florida last night with the big W. The point of this thread is to give you all the facts, and numbers as how we currently stand and were we can be. You are more than welcome to form your own opinion after you have read the facts, and looked at the numbers, but i want a place for people to be able to come when they have this question and get an honest answer. so with that said lets get started:
prior to the start of the week our rpi was around the 150 range i believe. the win vs sc bumped us up around 10 spots and we were around 140 or so after that win. after we beat florida multiple sites have us anywhere from 105-110 now. this number was hire initially, but other games that occured last night did effect it and drop us a bit, so remember that, this is a constant changing number depending on what other teams do that are ahead of us and below us.
so we are currently at we'll say rpi of 108, with a 12-12 record(rpi doesnt count chaminade) and 5-5 in sec tied for 5th. we have remaining games against Arkansas(66rpi), @Bama(32rpi), Ole Miss(51rpi), @USCjr(171rpi), @LSU(71rpi), Vandy(26rpi). road games count more than home wins, and obviously wins against higher rpi teams will do more for your rpi, so we definitely have some opportunity games remaining.
1. the most reasonable theory i think many here could agree on is that we go 5-1 down the stretch, and we'll say that loss comes to vanderbilt at home. so we finish the season 17-13(10-6)(remember cham. doesnt count towards rpi). according to rpiforecast.com that would give us a rpi around, 75 at seasons end. we would go into the sec as probably the 6th seed, so as it stands would play auburn, miss st, and then florida if favorites were to win out, to me none of those teams are unbeatable. if we won 2 of them losing to say UF in the semis and finished at 19-14, our projected rpi would be 55. if we were to win all 3 and then lose in the sec championship game and be 20-14 our rpi would be a projected 42.
2. another scenario would be we go 6-0 down the stretch and finish the seaosn 18-12. our rpi at seasons end would be a projected 63. we would most likely be receiving a first round bye, and probably be the 2 or 3 seed because of tie breaker we'd hold over florida. so we'll say 3 seed for the sake of arguement, we would play the winner of alabama/auburn in rd 2, rd 3 we'd play most likely florida. if we won the first game and finished 19-13 our rpi would be 61. if we won the first 2 games and lost in the championship and our record was 20-13 our rpi would be 44.
3. the best case scenario would be we finish 6-0 down the stretch, but we dont finish top 4 in sec so we dont get a bye. we go into the sec tournament with no bye and a record of 18-12(11-5), we 3 games and lose in the championship giving us a record of 21-13 and a rpi projected at around 35. this is a very unlikely scenario as for starters we'd have to go 6-0, but we'd also have to have vandy only lose to us and win out. we would also need florida to win out and miss st to win out so that those teams finished 1-4 not giving us a bye.
the most probable scenario of these all is 1 imo. i think we can easily go 5-1 down the stretch, win our first 2 games agaist auburn and miss st and finish with a rpi of around 55, or beat uf in the semi's in the next round and have a rpi of around 42. right now it looks like the ncaa will take 5 at the most 6 sec teams, so basically we need to get our rpi above bama, ole miss, and arkansas. it just so happens to be that those are our next 3 games, so it really honestly lies in our own hands as far as what our chances will be. if we win the next 3 games and jump those teams in rpi, we will start to get a much clearer picture of how things will shape up.
as i said; everyone is free to form their own opinion i just wanted to provide the truth and the numbers for people to see and come up with their own opinion. it is obviously very clear that there are multilple scenarios in which this team can finish the season and still make the ncaa tournament. heck, one of those scenarios is finish 5-1, and only beat auburn and msu in the sec t, thats really not asking anything insane i dont think. obviously the more we win the better our chances get, and we really need a strong showing these next 3 games to try and jump ole miss, arky, and bama in the rpi rankings, and then will be considered the 5th best team in the sec, and as i said the committee will take atleast 5 maybe even 6.
is this proable? no, not really
is is possible? absolutely it is
GBO!!!
