You can say "should" all day, but crazy things happen.
Imagine saying the floor in 2017 was 6 wins...things happen and sometimes not even all that crazy. The odds can play out against you too...just natural variance.
Vegas has us about 1 in 6 to finish with 7 or fewer wins. Not exactly an improbability, just pretty unlikely. 8-4 is only slightly less likely than 9-3.
We have to have to remember this is the new SEC, where 8 or 9 wins is similar to an old 9 or 10 wins. State is better than people expected a year ago and we're a dog to OU. Just no easy sledding here and that's hoping none of UF, Arky, Miss St, UK is this year's Mizzou.