The more I look at playoff scenarios, the more I think we play at OSU no matter what happens in the conference championship games. I think it’s clear that the committee believes the top Big 10 teams are better than the top SEC teams. All other things being relatively equal, I think the committee’s Big 10 bias puts OSU ahead of us. I expect the losers of the conference championship games to be dropped as little as the committee possibly can under the rules. For example, if Tx loses to UGA, Tx will only drop to #5. Penn St losing to Oregon would put them at #6. ND 7. OSU 8 and us 9. The top 4 seeds going to conference champs will put 2 clearly inferior teams in top spots.
I think it shakes out like this:
1. Oregon
2. UGA.
3. ACC champ
4. Boise St (or Big 12 champ if BSU loses its conference championship game)
5. Tx
6. PSU
7. ND
8. OSU
9. UT
10-12 I don’t even care.
If I’m wrong about the SEC and Big 10 championship game winners, you just flip flop those teams more or less, but I don’t think the committee drops the losers of those games below teams from their respective conferences that didn’t make it to that stage. The only way I see us moving up is maybe if there are really lopsided results. We need UGA and PSU to lose by 50. Even then, I’m not sure it happens.
And before anyone flames me, this is not necessarily what I think SHOULD happen; it’s what I think the committee will do based on everything they’ve said and done so far.