Recruiting Football Talk VIII

#88,176
#88,176
fearsvols said:
So then Texas should be in the same talks? Going In The TAMU game their best wins were Vandy and Oklahoma … only good team they played they lost at home to. Look I’m not defending Indiana or the Big Ten but if you give Missouri Indianas type of schedule in the SEC we would be saying they deserve to be in. Indiana did play the 2 teams that played in the national championship last year, is it their fault they were trash this year? Is it Tennessees fault that Oklahoma and Nc State collapsed after our games this year?
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Its indiana’s fault for taking louisville off their schedule. Their non-conference schedule was atrocious. They scheduled this way this way to reach the 6 win mark b/c they anticipated this season to be a building year and sell hope for the future. They are having a cinderella run and capitalizing off a magical season.
 
#88,178
#88,178
If Texas and Oregon win we're likely a top 6 seed. If Penn State and Georgia win, I think we'll be sweating to get that 8 seed.

Really how I see it playing out. We know top 4 will be conference champions, SEC & BIG10 are given...Boise if they win, SMU if they win, but either of them lose and Big 12 will be in. Notre Lame will be the highest at large I think then it'll depend on the 2 games mentioned above. Cause Oregon and Texas likely don't drop behind us with a loss...and Ohio State will also be getting heavy argument to be ahead of us still so tonight's rankings we want to see Ohio State behind us.
 
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#88,179
#88,179
MoCo_Vol said:
Perfect situation for us for Saturday's games...

22 UNLV upsets 11 Boise State (UNLV would 100% be seeded behind us and Boise State would drop out of the playoffs)
Army beats 17 Tulane (just to be safe that 2 group of 5 conference champs don't sneak in...other than Boise Tulane is the highest rated G5 team still in the mix)
18 Iowa State vs 16 Arizona State (honestly doesn't matter winner is going to most likely be seeded below us regardless)
3 Texas beats 7 Georgia (if Georgia wins then both teams likely are seeded ahead of us, Georgia loses and there's a chance they with 3 losses fall behind us)
1 Oregon beats 4 Penn State (just need Penn State to get dog walked they're only in this game out of sheer luck and weak schedule)
12 Clemson upsets 9 SMU (a 3 loss ACC champ that just lost to a 3 loss SEC team won't be seeded above us, SMU wins and they will get a top 4 seed)

I actually think SMU will beat Clemson... and with the BS top 4 going to conference champs regardless of record that might be the better outcome...cause we know SEC/BIG 10 champs are the 1 & 2 seed regardless of who wins...SMU and Boise State would be the next 2, but if either loses I think Big 12 champ gets one.

Ohio State and Notre Dame would be the only 2 at large teams I could see getting seeded ahead of us...I know people don't think conference champion losers will be punished...but I just don't think a 2 loss Penn State, 3 loss Georgia, or a 2 loss SMU would stay ahead of us in seeding so that's why I'm wanting the above outcomes.
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i think it depends on what one thinks "punished" means....to me, it means not eliminating a playoff worthy team because they lost the conf title game. doesn't mean they can't fall a bit in the seeding, based on how the game played out. i would think both UGA and PSU would have to lose rather convincingly for it to matter a ton on the seeding, jmo.

on your point about Clemson beating SMU....see, i think that's a bit shaky. what that does for sure is eliminate Miami, though many think they're already out....but the committee then has to decide, do they punish SMU...who is a playoff worthy team, with 11 wins in a P4 conf and eliminate them? because, if they don't, then that steals a bid from Bama, USCe and/or Ole Miss. so 2 ACC teams get in. and SMU would likely be seeded behind us in that secnario, so i'm good with it. but none of the 3 loss SEC teams want Clemson to win. they need that last spot still open after championships are settled to have a chance.

Edit: the other thing Clemson winning does is it opens the door for the Big 12 or Mac Champ to move to the 4 line, and Clemson to the 12.....so that 12/5 match up, at least on paper isn't some giant P4 team playing the best G5 team available....could be interesting.

and even then, i'm still not 100% certain the committee puts one of them in over a 10 win Miami, who lost to 2 good, not great, teams on the road, in conf. probelm for Miami is they have zero good wins....in that scenario, they're Penn St or Indiana, with an additonal loss. and maybe all that says is they should be on the back end of the road teams in the seeding. maybe it says they should be out. dunno. but i don't think any 3 loss team outside of a UGA that loses to Texas Saturday, deserves to be in....
 
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#88,180
#88,180
#Vol4Life1991 said:
Its indiana’s fault for taking louisville off their schedule. Their non-conference schedule was atrocious. They scheduled this way this way to reach the 6 win mark b/c they anticipated this season to be a building year and sell hope for the future. They are having a cinderella run and capitalizing off a magical season.
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Teams buyout obligated games every year.

Indiana is going to make CFP no matter how anyone spins it, better than having any of the 3 looking in from SEC ..to hell with South Carolina, Mississippi and especially Alabama.
 
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#88,181
#88,181
jave36 said:
Go down to 8. A bye is way too much of an advantage. And we don't need kids playing so many games. I'd be fine with ditching conference championship games to be honest. 17 games is insane.
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i don't think the bye is that big a deal when everyone has at least 2 weeks before the playoffs even start. and for anyone not playing in a title game, gets 3.....plus there's a week+ in between each round....i think there may be too much time off lol.

17 games is a lot, agreed. but, there's a part of me that says....with all the money that's involved now, i say we should get our money's worth.........
 
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#88,183
#88,183
jakez4ut said:
i think it depends on what one thinks "punished" means....to me, it means not eliminating a playoff worthy team because they lost the conf title game. doesn't mean they can't fall a bit in the seeding, based on how the game played out. i would think both UGA and PSU would have to lose rather convincingly for it to matter a ton on the seeding, jmo.

on your point about Clemson beating SMU....see, i think that's a bit shaky. what that does for sure is eliminate Miami, though many think they're already out....but the committee then has to decide, do they punish SMU...who is a playoff worthy team, with 11 wins in a P4 conf and eliminate them? because, if they don't, then that steals a bid from Bama, USCe and/or Ole Miss. so 2 ACC teams get in. and SMU would likely be seeded behind us in that secnario, so i'm good with it. but none of the 3 loss SEC teams want Clemson to win. they need that last spot still open after championships are settled to have a chance.

and even then, i'm still not 100% certain the committee puts one of them in over a 10 win Miami, who lost to 2 good, not great, teams on the road, in conf. probelm for Miami is they have zero good wins....in that scenario, they're Penn St or Indiana, with an additonal loss. and maybe all that says is they should be on the back end of the road teams in the seeding. maybe it says they should be out. dunno. but i don't think any 3 loss team outside of a UGA that loses to Texas Saturday, deserves to be in....
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Yeah without adding seeding here's the teams I 100% think are in regardless of outcomes Saturday.

Big 10: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana - 4 teams
SEC: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee - 3 teams
ACC: SMU, Miami - 2 teams (Clemson wins and chaos, but still think ACC gets in 2 even with that outcome)
Big 12: champion - 1 team (Arizona State or Iowa State)
Group 5: champion - 1 team
At Large: Notre Dame


So really to me the only "what if" comes from Clemson winning the ACC. As you pointed out if that happens the final at large becomes a debate. SMU, Miami, Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina
 
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#88,184
#88,184
knoxvol52 said:
Teams buyout obligated games every year.

Indiana is going to make CFP no matter how anyone spins it, better than having any of the 3 looking in from SEC ..to hell with South Carolina, Mississippi and especially Alabama.
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Im fine with them making the playoff. Rather them, than any other sec skool (excl: 🍊). I hope smu (regardless of W/L this week) and miami makes it. Tired of seeing osu, bama and uga making it.
 
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#88,185
#88,185
Orange. said:
Bama is a playoff team except for us beating them. Indiana is not a playoff team in our league. So those numbers are deceiving. Ohio was just held to one TD at home. Drop them like everyone drops.

They are basically where they are because they were born on 3rd base (at the top of polls) and we had to climb our way up. Preseason polls are garbage. Nothing they did on the field this year merited that special treatment.
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All true, but none of it matters. As I said before this whole process is deductive. Conclusions are made and then "facts" are used to justify those conclusions.
Top ten largest fan bases: Ohio St., Notre Dame, Texas, Penn State, Michigan, Florida, Oregon, Alabama, Wisconsin, and USC. We have a regional bias and think everyone in the country thinks like us. We make a lot more noise and are much more overt in our fandom than most places. Cfb may not mean as much to those Yankees but they watch the playoffs. They are like Catholics, most don't show up every Sunday but you can bet your bottom dollar they show on Christmas and Easter.
 
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#88,186
#88,186
VolGee4 said:
It’s worth a discussion because conference expansion has created such unbalanced schedules. Indiana played 1! (and lost) of the other top 6 in their conference and 3 of the top 11. They only beat one team who had a conference winning record, and Michigan had to beat OSU to do that.
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It feels like penalizing them for Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, and Michigan St being so bad this year. Normally, those are 4 solid wins.
 
#88,187
#88,187
knoxvol52 said:
Teams buyout obligated games every year.

Indiana is going to make CFP no matter how anyone spins it, better than having any of the 3 looking in from SEC ..to hell with South Carolina, Mississippi and especially Alabama.
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Prepare for Alabama to be in the playoff. They don’t deserve it, but it’s going to happen imo.
 
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#88,188
#88,188
MoCo_Vol said:
Yeah without adding seeding here's the teams I 100% think are in regardless of outcomes Saturday.

Big 10: Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana - 4 teams
SEC: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee - 3 teams
ACC: SMU, Miami - 2 teams (Clemson wins and chaos, but still think ACC gets in 2 even with that outcome)
Big 12: champion - 1 team (Arizona State or Iowa State)
Group 5: champion - 1 team
At Large: Notre Dame


So really to me the only "what if" comes from Clemson winning the ACC. As you pointed out if that happens the final at large becomes a debate. SMU, Miami, Bama, Ole Miss, South Carolina
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oh, in that scenario, i think SMU the one that absolutely makes the most sense.

and don't forget, Clemson winning doesn't mean they move to the 4 line. the big 12 winner or Mac champ could move to that spot, and put Clemson at 12, likely playing @ ND in the first round.
 
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#88,190
#88,190
Butch Jones said:
It feels like penalizing them for Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington, and Michigan St being so bad this year. Normally, those are 4 solid wins.
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Word choice matters here: are you “penalizing” them for these teams being unexpectedly bad or are you “rewarding” them for playing a schedule softer than other teams? Every team that gets a spot takes one from another team. I don’t think it makes sense to evaluate a team’s schedule based on whether teams have been good in prior years.
 
#88,192
#88,192
Orange. said:
Bama is a playoff team except for us beating them. Indiana is not a playoff team in our league. So those numbers are deceiving. Ohio was just held to one TD at home. Drop them like everyone drops.

They are basically where they are because they were born on 3rd base (at the top of polls) and we had to climb our way up. Preseason polls are garbage. Nothing they did on the field this year merited that special treatment.
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while i agree with your basic point....here's the only thing i'd say...Indiana played the schedule given and beat everyone on it in the Big 10, except for Ohio St. they were dropped to the bottom of the road teams in seeding. seems about right to me.

where i think you're right is how OSU will be treated for losing a bad game at home against a team that by all rights should have a losing record....Michigan is not good, at all. When we lost @ UGA we were bounced. When UGA lost @ Ole Miss they were bounced. When Indiana lost to OSU, they fell 5 spots.

so i'm very interested to see how the committeed explains what they do with OSU tonight for losing a much worse game than any of the other teams, and they were quite severely dealt with....at minimum they should fall 5 spots in the rankings, and be a 9 seed.

what will happen? they'll fall to 5 or 6 and be the 5-7 seed.
 
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#88,194
#88,194
Orange. said:
Bets on whether it will Bama?
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Man is the media beating that drum or what. Repeat it and discuss it enough and people will swallow anything. The President is perfectly fine. The virus came from a market. Every computer in the world will blow up in the year 2000. Alabama is a playoff team.
People love a good hoax.
 
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