1. It doesn’t matter who wins the job as long as the coach (who has proven he knows what he’s doing with QBs and offense) thinks he gives us the best chance to win. I have my preference just as most other fans who care enough do, but don’t get married to that idea because then you are going to irrationally get frustrated with the coach and other fans when your guy isn’t chosen. We’re all on the same team.
2. Personally, I believe Joe Milton has the highest upside and best combination of tools we’ve seen at UT in a long long time. Maybe ever? Does that mean he’s going to win the job? No. He’s got the best arm strength, but he’s also got to be accurate and make good decisions and hold onto the ball. I think he can do that in this simplified system where reads are easy. I also don’t think he was that bad last year like some say. He was on a pretty bad team, and I don’t think hardly any QBs at Michigan have looked very good. People saying he’s not very accurate need to watch his “every play” videos on YouTube. His problem was there was a few bad decisions where he threw into traffic. He’s really a pretty accurate thrower but probably needs to throw with a little more touch sometimes. He’s got such a special arm that I think his receivers (who were below average IMO) sometimes couldn’t handle the velocity and there was just so many dropped passes it was ridiculous.
3. Bailey is a good QB. He has just as much chance to win the job as anybody else. He had a great spring game and that does count for something. However, that was 1 of 15 practices. From what I’ve heard, that was the best practice he had by far. Maybe he’s a gamer? Gamers don’t win the job usually unless they get a chance to play after the best practice player either gets hurt or stinks it up (see 2013-14 with Worley/Dobbs). That’s just how most coaches are and teams are ran. That may not be the case though, just a theory. Bailey’s 2 big question marks to me is can he consistently play in a way that’s not too safe (holding onto the ball too long waiting on somebody to get really open instead of throwing guys open) and to a lesser extent his long release. He has a long release and I’m afraid he won’t get the ball out in time if he’s being heavily pressured. Could be the difference in a completion and a strip sack for a touchdown. I’m more worried about the former. If he can really improve in these areas I see no reason why he can’t win the job because I know he’ll be accurate.
4. Usually the Quarterback who overall does the best at this combination wins the job: makes the best decisions, good/accurate distributor, few turnovers, can move the ball and has the most respect and best influence on their teammates on the field. With that being said, some context is needed. Style of offense might have more influence. In this case, who can throw the deep ball the best since it is such a huge part of the offense? Also, if your team isn’t championship level especially at offensive line or running back (I do think we’ll be pretty solid there, however), maybe a Quarterback who is mobile/dual threat plays gives the offense more chance for success. These are certain things that have to be considered, not just looking at a stat line and saying this guy was best. In this instance, I really don’t care if Bailey completed 90 percent of his passes last year because he didn’t push it down field at all and hit check downs all day. That won’t cut it in this offense. But that doesn’t mean that will be the case this year and he may flourish. Here’s the bottom line, IMO, if the competition is close, Joe Milton wins by default because he has the biggest potential of anybody at QB. Big arm plus true dual threat allows the coaches flexibility to do what they want to do. If you can’t trust him and he’s turning it over or maybe just not moving the ball like they need, I like Bailey. Skillset wise, think of it like this: if you have Cam Newton tools or Jake Fromm, tools and overall the QB competition is close, who are you gonna pick?