Bama Offense vs Tennessee Defense
How good really is Bama's offense?
Bama Passing:
- Bama OL allows 0.15 sacks and QBH's per attempt. That means 15% of every pass, their QB gets pressured (sacked or hurried). This is against decent pass rush (22% sacks+qbh rate that Texas, Ark & A&M average).
- UT pass rush will be unlike anything Bama has seen, pressuring the QB every 1 of 3 pass attempts (32%)
- Bama's pass pro looks like UF and LSU's (15% pressures allowed between them) and against them we averaged 3 sacks, 7.5 QBH.
Prediction: I think we get 2 sack and 8 QBH's this game. Get a couple hits and hurries on BY with a bum shoulder and we might be looking at an entirely different ballgame - Milroe being a turnover machine, passing game is non-existent, and Bama becomes highly reliant on the run game which they are elite. Or are they?
Bama Running:
- Bama is best in the nation at 6.99 ypc(!). They are, however, doing it against average run D's (Texas, Ark, A&M allow 4.12 ypc) and went for 6.55 ypc against them.
- UT run defense is #7 in the country allowing 2.79 ypc and has done it against (surprisingly) good run offenses, where Pitt, UF and LSU average 5.73 ypc. We slowed them down to 3.09 ypc in our games against them.
Prediction: This is yet another Strength on Strength! I think we drop Bama to 4.5 ypc, which is 2.5 ypc below their average. At 40 carries a game, they'll be down 100 yards from their normal production. That accounts for about 9 points (Bama scores 8.8 pts/100 yds average).
Bama Scoring:
- Bama is elite at 3.55 pts/drive, but plays down to their opponent’s pts allowed/drive average. Examples - 1.8 pt/drive vs Texas (who averages 1.6 pt allowed/drive), 3.3 vs Arkansas (2.9 allowed average) and 1.7 vs A&M (1.9 allowed average).
- UT defense allows 1.59 pts/drive, the best they will face and should expect similar performances.
Prediction: Bama scores down to what UT averages are, hitting us at 1.8 pts/drive. In a 13-drive game, that’s 23 points against us. Minus 9 points lost from the strength-on-strength Run game matchup, that’s
Bama scoring 14!
Final score: Tennessee 39 - Bama 14 !!!
TLDR version: 15-0, WGWTFA, go ballistic on ‘em, goal posts come down, we become #1 and it will be glorious!!
