Recruiting Forum Football Talk V

[SpringBokVol]

How is the UK line -5??!?

I thought it would be 7.5 at a minimum

 

[Christian Lowe]

I thought it would be 7.5 at a minimum

My fiancé said she saw -5.5 somewhere. I see -14 at draft kings. Who knows with these futures spreads.

 

[Paper_Towel]

Went back and read the thread with @Neyland Rising and the infamous “Mehupel” post. Great times. And even funnier reading the disappointed posts and where we are today. Heupel proved a lot of us, including myself, wrong. And I could not be happier.

I sure did embarrass myself during that.

 

[Paper_Towel]

 

[utkevdawg1]

Just woken from REM sleep by my dog going absolutely nuts. Let him outside and heard what sounded like a woman (but not quite) screaming from behind the elementary school where my house backs up to.
Some quick research showed it was the mating call of a female fox. Kind of neat, though, I wish it wasn't at 3:00 a.m. Also, before I figured out what it was, it was the creepiest thing I've experienced in a long time.
You can hear what it sounds like at the link.

 

[MetVol]

What Heupel is doing is not normal....it is dang near miraculous. Those are legitimate thoughts.

It's elite coaching and development. That's something we haven't seen in our football program in a long time.

I know what you mean. Still feels like a dream right now. We had the false hope during the Butch years in 2015-16, but that entire time, it felt like we had elite talent making miracles happen out of terrible coaching and play calling.

 

[Big Orange#1]

Yea. Healthy athletes die all the time . Seems to be happening alot since like ummm. 2021 to now. But hey , wouldn't wanna go against mainstream profit

Our own QB had heart issues and was hospitalized after contracting covid in 2020 while he was at Virginia Tech. My healthy (unvaxxed) wife caught covid and it caused a massive blood pressure spike and had to be medicated to bring it back down. If she was still performing intense cardio activity like when she was a student athlete in college a few years ago she probably would have had a cardiac event as well.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

I’m just checking in. Haven’t posted since my Alabama preview but I’ve been reading and liking a lot of what you guys have been writing. One thing I think more and more people are realizing is that this year we absolutely can TRUST our football team (coaches & players). That’s how much BVS has been cured. jmo.

I don’t have any real changes to my preseason Kentucky preview. I think everyone knows their strengths (none really) and weaknesses (everywhere) but none of the computer models see this as a toss-up game at the moment. We’re expected to win by multiple scores.

The greater the margin we beat Kentucky by the greater the likelihood the computers see our game with Georgia at Georgia as a toss-up. If the game in Athens was in Neyland all the computer models would already say it’s a toss-up, pretty much the same as Alabama.

All of our remaining opponents are projected to be multi-score wins for us. Only one possible toss-up remains. We’ve won all one-score games so far this year whether at home or on the road and the probability of us winning our last one this year on the road in Athens is increasing on a weekly basis.

11-1 is now our floor for the regular season; 15-0 is our ceiling for the year. jmo.

When we ventured into Death Valley it was assumed that LSU would have the home field advantage. It didn’t exactly work out that way. For much of the game folks on Bourbon Street in the French quarter of New Orleans could hear the lyrics of Rocky Top in the breeze blowing down from Baton Rouge. By the 4th quarter Tiger Stadium had a decided Tennessee home field advantage.

On November 5th we need as many Tennessee fans as we can get in Sanford stadium. If we have our fans with us our matchup with Georgia, according to the computers, moves into the pick ‘em category. If that is the case then with our coaches, with our players, and with our fans, I like our odds. jmo.

It would be best if we have so many fans in the stands in Athens that when Kirby looks around the stadium before kickoff he develops an acute case of Saban-esque anxiety. jmo.

If you have any doubt about the contribution of our fans to the outcome of our games, consider this, tonight on Vol Calls Heupel said the reason Alabama missed their field goal at the end of the game Saturday was because our fans blew it off course to the right. No, really. Everybody on the broadcast agreed.

One game at a time. Can’t look ahead to Georgia, or we will slip up to Kentucky. We will be UK’s Super Bowl, and we know they will have a bunch of wrinkles installed to try to upset us.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

Rewatching UT vs UK 2021.

Forgot that we were about to go up 21-7 before the fumble near the red zone. That would have been game over and we would have won by a lot more. They wouldn't have been able to try and run clock at all.

We really need to turn in a clean game against UK and then carry it over the rest of the year.

 

[TurnoverTrashCan]

All these homer idiots out there have no idea what to do with Tennessee. There's a real struggle to separate what everyone knows Tennessee has been the past ten years, from what Tennessee is doing right now. And it doesn't reconcile.

I get it. They're all waiting for the other shoe to drop. That's why UK will get talked up. And USCe.. And UGA.

It'll be that way until we beat team 'x'... And then the goal posts will move again. Been that way all season.

Cool. I think that's good for this team really. Everybody can doubt till they look at the scoreboard.

I think that you’re right. Our opponents have the opposite of BVS and are waiting for us to fumble the bag the way that we always have. But, we aren’t that same old Tennessee team.

 

[OGbabyaviVol]

So Saban makes some weak statement implying fans being allowed to rush the field contributed to the girl being hit by his turd WR. Reality is he is starting to lose control of things based on undisciplined play , these kind of incidents, and mistakes they never would of made a few years ago. not just in our game but also at other times this year. This was the beginning of the end for Bowdon and some others of that statue. Sooner or later it happens to everyone. I may be wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if they lost one or two more this year and started a slow but gradual decline.

Still doesn’t take away from his action. This is the problem with athletes…they are enabled because coaches and others make excuses for them. Just because we stormed the field doesn’t give him the ok to smack a woman. Come on, Saban!

 

[TurnoverTrashCan]

I really hope we broke them. I have to agree with their former players. I can’t believe they acknowledged that they had anxiety.

We are not the same old Tennessee team that they are used to playing. Coach Heupel has us all believing that we can win. And we are. Even against Alabama.

 

[StoVol]

 

[SugarCC]

View attachment 503674

“a collective effort to contain their nonsense to the Sugar Bowl”

I'm sorry...what did you say? I wasn't listening, because I was drinking beer from this barrell.

 

[Devo182]

Realistically, how much better can the offense get? Hooker has been phenomenal and only a handful of things he could improve on. Our production has been incredible. The O-line has been dominant. Receivers are elite. RB is the only weak spot.

I’m not sure but this could be the best producing offense we see in the next 5-6 years. It’s been so incredible to watch.

Now add elite TEs and an elite RB to Milton or Nico.

Imagine 5 stars scattered across the field like uga/bama but now with an elite offensive mind behind it. We're still nowhere close to that level of raw talent.

It can get even better. 100% unstoppable, not just 90% unstoppable.

Oh...and then add an elite defense that gets us the ball back more often and in better position.

 

[fearsvols]

Still doesn’t take away from his action. This is the problem with athletes…they are enabled because coaches and others make excuses for them. Just because we stormed the field doesn’t give him the ok to smack a woman. Come on, Saban!

So was.Bobby Wagner wrong for tackling the protestor during the Rams game a few weeks ago? In no way am i defending Burton here...Just wondering where everyone stands on this with instances that do not involve fandom

 

[Big Orange#1]

I wish I was 13 again. I’d do a lot of **** differently lol

I should have have bought Bitcoin and distressed real estate in 2009 when I was 13 SMH

 

[ChattaTNVol]

This is a data dump.

Obviously, I based my projections off of a number of computer models. It’s not foolproof but maybe it keeps a bit of my bias in check. jmo.

Anyway, I’m not overlooking anyone. For the record, our opponent this week, UT-M, is ranked #18 in the FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks FBS & FCS together and he has UT-M ranked #151 for all of FBS/FCS. UT-M is 4-2 on the year.

As an aside, UTC is ranked #10 in the FCS top 25 and #127 in Sagarin’s rankings. UTC is 5-1 on the year.

There are 4 models that I look at the most, Phil Steele’s Vegas Power Rating (VPR), Bill Connelly’s SP+, ESPN’s FPI, and Jeff Sagarin’s ratings.

This is how our remaining FBS opponents rank in each of the models this week. VN-Avg is the VolNation Average of the four.



This is a table showing the SEC teams our remaining opponents have faced so far this year. Green they won; pink they lost. Missouri hasn’t won a P-5 game yet this year. If Vanderbilt played UTC at UTC, according to Sagarin, UTC would be favored. I'm pointing this out to suggest that Georgia has yet to face a competent offense on the year, let alone the #1 offense in the nation. jmo.



This is the game by game projection for each model. The win probability is my own formula which I derived through research. The formula I use is:

=IF(IF((0.02*Margin+0.5)<1,(0.02*Margin+0.5),1)>0,IF((0.02*Margin+0.5)<1,(0.02*Margin+0.5),1),0)



If the Georgia game was in Neyland the projected margin would be, using Sagarin 2.24 pts, using SP+ 0.20 pts, using FPI 3.80 pts, and with VPR 2.71 pts. The only real challenge we have with Georgia (on paper) is they have the home field advantage - or at least right now they and most people think they do. We'll find out for sure on Nov 5th. jmo.

 

[all_volz]

I really hope we broke them. I have to agree with their former players. I can’t believe they acknowledged that they had anxiety.

CJH living rent free in Coach Satan's head.

 

[RikidyBones]

Question for season tickets holders:

Does UT get an allotment for SEC Championship and/or bowl game?

This is my first year buying season tix directly from UT (bought 2nd hand in the past).

Yes they get an allotment. I only know how UGA does it because of my wife's family but they have a point system (I'm guessing season tickets for other sports add to that as well as total donation) and they go by that. So first time season ticket holders there, wouldn't have a chance at SECCG unless they donated a lot of money. UT might be different though. If you have an extra ticket, holla atcha boy.

 

[Jackcrevol]

They're not copperheads you asp hole.

I dont believe you.

 

[Jimmy Football]

My fiancé said she saw -5.5 somewhere. I see -14 at draft kings. Who knows with these futures spreads.

I commented on the -5.5 at Fan Duel New Jersey yesterday. If I were the gambling sort, that’s a number I would take if I could get it.

Based on most of the power ratings I’ve seen, we should be 9-10 pt favorites, neutral field. Add in home field, and the -14 number seems way more realistic than the -5.5.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

how can we not make the playoffs even losing to Florida ?

edit meant georgia

When are y’all going to quit this?

Beat everyone and forget about the losing.


Seriously, get with the program.


15-0


Who’re we going to beat?





Any questions?

 

[RikidyBones]

So was.Bobby Wagner wrong for tackling the protestor during the Rams game a few weeks ago? In no way am i defending Burton here...Just wondering where everyone stands on this with instances that do not involve fandom

Wagner can argue good Samaritan as security was actively trying to get him off of the field. Burton was simply malicious.

 

[Weezer]

So was.Bobby Wagner wrong for tackling the protestor during the Rams game a few weeks ago? In no way am i defending Burton here...Just wondering where everyone stands on this with instances that do not involve fandom

Different situations. That situation was a lone fan disrupting the game while it was in progress. It wasn't done post game when athletes could easily have just left the field.