This is a data dump.
Obviously, I based my projections off of a number of computer models. It’s not foolproof but maybe it keeps a bit of my bias in check. jmo.
Anyway, I’m not overlooking anyone. For the record, our opponent this week, UT-M, is ranked #18 in the FCS top 25. Sagarin ranks FBS & FCS together and he has UT-M ranked #151 for all of FBS/FCS. UT-M is 4-2 on the year.
As an aside, UTC is ranked #10 in the FCS top 25 and #127 in Sagarin’s rankings. UTC is 5-1 on the year.
There are 4 models that I look at the most, Phil Steele’s Vegas Power Rating (VPR), Bill Connelly’s SP+, ESPN’s FPI, and Jeff Sagarin’s ratings.
This is how our remaining FBS opponents rank in each of the models this week. VN-Avg is the VolNation Average of the four.
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This is a table showing the SEC teams our remaining opponents have faced so far this year. Green they won; pink they lost. Missouri hasn’t won a P-5 game yet this year. If Vanderbilt played UTC at UTC, according to Sagarin, UTC would be favored. I'm pointing this out to suggest that Georgia has yet to face a competent offense on the year, let alone the #1 offense in the nation. jmo.
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This is the game by game projection for each model. The win probability is my own formula which I derived through research. The formula I use is:
=IF(IF((0.02*Margin+0.5)<1,(0.02*Margin+0.5),1)>0,IF((0.02*Margin+0.5)<1,(0.02*Margin+0.5),1),0)
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If the Georgia game was in Neyland the projected margin would be, using Sagarin 2.24 pts, using SP+ 0.20 pts, using FPI 3.80 pts, and with VPR 2.71 pts. The only real challenge we have with Georgia (on paper) is they have the home field advantage - or at least right now they and most people think they do. We'll find out for sure on Nov 5th. jmo.