Recruiting Forum Football Talk VI

[johnfnkelly]

If Drake Maye ever went to a good team, he would win soo many games.

Watched one game of his last year and he impressed me more than anyone not named Hooker.

And I still laugh that Penix turned into something. Hardly cared when he didn't end up here and he looked like a dud at Indiana. Sometimes guys just have to find their fit.

Penix was anything but a dud at IU, unless you meant to say stud. He just couldn't stay healthy.

Drake Maye was the best QB in college football last year, imo.

 

[Jimmy Football]

You mean we shouldn't have the statistically GREATEST TEAM OF ALL-TIME every single year?!

FF disagrees.

Failure on Tony V’s part. Udder, in fact.

 

[Orange_Crush]

I'm not sure what convo I even stepped into...pretty sure those 2 have some long running poultry though

But clearly you want the highest rated guys in general. Thus the championship teams...they're not taking many 3*s at all.

Eh... That's the endless loop of assumptions that fuels this debate. You and others are assuming the "highest rated" guys are always the most highly talented. It would be a quieter room if everyone could just agree that we want the most highly talented recruits, that also most closely suit the needs of our schemes--with an agreement to not **** on recruiting classes until we see them play out.

But alas, here we are... again...

And funny story for those that quote stats and then rest their brain... A recent statistical study has shown that everyone on earth has one breast, one testicle, and a half a penis.

 

[Devo182]

But the rating sites also bump 3*s to 4 and even 5 based on those championship teams recruiting them.

The Bama bump has been a thing for years.

Wouldn't that mean, if their recruits have been getting inflated the last 15 years, we would expect them to then underperform on the field vs that? And yet Saban has umpteen championships.

The actual research I saw one year actually showed (either Butch's or Pruitt's I forget) we had the most bumps through the recruiting season. Randos like Mizzou and UK were behind us. Bama was near the middle-back. Ofc that was just 1 year, so not enough data to make real conclusions, but it was the only time I had ever seen someone just look at the data over time to see who got bumps or not. Bama fans themselves say their guys constantly get bumped down because they're hated (sounds like every fanbase lol).

It just seems we'd see a different outcome if some teams were unfairly getting bumps. I think that would at least make a better theory for teams like OSU, LSU, USC, A&M...though still...the research would be needed. As casual observers, every fanbase focuses on its own guys going down, think every bump was clearly justified, and see the opposite of their rivals. Jmo but I always wonderer if Butch's classes were being overvalued when he was going heavily in-state and 247 had set up their HQ in Nashville, so more kids had easy exposure. Or he was just that bad of a developer...also true.

 

[Devo182]

Eh... That's the endless loop of assumptions that fuels this debate. You and others are assuming the "highest rated" guys are always the most highly talented. It would be a quieter room if everyone could just agree that we want the most highly talented recruits, that also most closely suit the needs of our schemes--with an agreement to not **** on recruiting classes until we see them play out.

But alas, here we are... again...

And funny story for those that quote stats and then rest their brain... A recent statistical study has shown that everyone on earth has one breast, one testicle, and a half a penis.

Don't have to assume. The correlations are clear. 5*s go to the NFL at a higher rate. And the teams that win championships always have more bluechips than not.

I'll stick to this side.

Fwiw zero to do with our own players, once a kid decides to be a Vol, that's the end of it...hating on our classes or recruits is for the negammunity. Not sure what the discussion was before, I'm just talking in general.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Wouldn't that mean, if their recruits have been getting inflated the last 15 years, we would expect them to then underperform on the field vs that? And yet Saban has umpteen championships.

The actual research I saw one year actually showed (either Butch's or Pruitt's I forget) we had the most bumps through the recruiting season. Randos like Mizzou and UK were behind us. Bama was near the middle-back. Ofc that was just 1 year, so not enough data to make real conclusions, but it was the only time I had ever seen someone just look at the data over time to see who got bumps or not. Bama fans themselves say their guys constantly get bumped down because they're hated (sounds like every fanbase lol).

It just seems we'd see a different outcome if some teams were unfairly getting bumps. I think that would at least make a better theory for teams like OSU, LSU, USC, A&M...though still...the research would be needed. As casual observers, every fanbase focuses on its own guys going down, think every bump was clearly justified, and see the opposite of their rivals. Jmo but I always wonderer if Butch's classes were being overvalued when he was going heavily in-state and 247 had set up their HQ in Nashville, so more kids had easy exposure. Or he was just that bad of a developer...also true.

The bump wouldn't necessarily mean that the class is full of lower talent than its end rating. I believe the argument that you're actually seeking to defeat can be stated: "Saban and crew are great at spotting talent, despite recruiting rankings, so recruiting sites tend to bump the recruits that they want." i.e. The highly talented class may have been lower ranked if they'd gone elsewhere.

Your "then you'd expect them to underperform" is the exact opposite expectation we should have of the argument at hand, if it were true. The hypothesis starts with the statement that the classes are highly talented.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Don't have to assume. The correlations are clear. 5*s go to the NFL at a higher rate. And the teams that win championships always have more bluechips than not.

I'll stick to this side.

Feel free. And I will assume you have half a penis.

And funny story for those that quote stats and then rest their brain... A recent statistical study has shown that everyone on earth has one breast, one testicle, and a half a penis.

 

[Devo182]

The bump wouldn't necessarily mean that the class is full of lower talent than its end rating. I believe the argument that you're actually seeking to defeat can be stated: "Saban and crew are great at spotting talent, despite recruiting rankings, so recruiting sites tend to bump the recruits that they want." i.e. The highly talented class may have been lower ranked if they'd gone elsewhere.

Your "then you'd expect them to underperform" is the exact opposite expectation we should have of the argument at hand, if it were true. The hypothesis starts with the statement that the classes are highly talented.

Sure it would, if it's been bumped. That's exactly what it means. It wasn't actually that good.

And yet...umpteen championships. Bang your head against the wall if you like. UGA and Bama don't seem to be the imposters the "bump" conspiracy theorists seem to think. They seem to have plenty of talent. Shockingly and saddeningly so.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

That club is illegal for play because of the change from square groves. Ping has reproduced the club with legal groves and that's what Phil is using but the media will probably say he's cheating by using it

I love my Ping Eye 2 irons.

My loving wife got me a new set of Ping irons. They were the closest to the original Ping Eye 2s…

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

It’s like the special needs version of 8 Mile.

 

[VolsDoc81TX]

View attachment 545239

Interesting that they did a left to right countdown to the obviously strongest arm on the QB to the far right.

 

[MoCo_Vol]

Wouldn't that mean, if their recruits have been getting inflated the last 15 years, we would expect them to then underperform on the field vs that? And yet Saban has umpteen championships.

The actual research I saw one year actually showed (either Butch's or Pruitt's I forget) we had the most bumps through the recruiting season. Randos like Mizzou and UK were behind us. Bama was near the middle-back. Ofc that was just 1 year, so not enough data to make real conclusions, but it was the only time I had ever seen someone just look at the data over time to see who got bumps or not. Bama fans themselves say their guys constantly get bumped down because they're hated (sounds like every fanbase lol).

It just seems we'd see a different outcome if some teams were unfairly getting bumps. I think that would at least make a better theory for teams like OSU, LSU, USC, A&M...though still...the research would be needed. As casual observers, every fanbase focuses on its own guys going down, think every bump was clearly justified, and see the opposite of their rivals. Jmo but I always wonderer if Butch's classes were being overvalued when he was going heavily in-state and 247 had set up their HQ in Nashville, so more kids had easy exposure. Or he was just that bad of a developer...also true.

It means that recruiting websites have less resources to evaluate HS talent and some 3 stars are underrated because of it.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Sure it would, if it's been bumped. That's exactly what it means. It wasn't actually that good.

And yet...umpteen championships. Bang your head against the wall if you like. UGA and Bama don't seem to be the imposters the "bump" conspiracy theorists seem to think. They seem to have plenty of talent. Shockingly and saddeningly so.

This is very intriguing. You are so tied to your assumptions that you can't seem to think outside of them.

Hypothesis:

1. Alabama is very good at spotting talent, even under-or-non-rated talent.
2. Rating services recognize this, so use Alabama's recruiting to note and bump ratings (because they know that Alabama always recruits some of the best athletes in the country).
3. So, Alabama always ends up with some of the best classes in the country, that are rated as some of the best classes in the country.

You: Obviously, that means we should expect Alabama's classes to under-perform compared to their rating...

Your logic seems to be "Rating services are infallible, so their initial rating has to be perfect. So, if they bump for Bama, they actually rated the player above their talent as a favor to Bama", instead of "rating services aren't perfect, so they may have missed initially, and use Bama to help them close the gap on their rating/talent comparison".

 

[Devo182]

Feel free. And I will assume you have half a penis.

Demetri Martin joke. I heard it last week. Good special. Though I thought it was about women parts.

Outside of comedy, a nice equivocation. Would never mix and speak of categoricals in statistical "averages". Ford wouldn't say their average car has 60% of a combustible engine and 40% of an electric engine. Let's not get silly.

 

[SweetasSoda]

I'm not sure what convo I even stepped into...pretty sure those 2 have some long running poultry though

But clearly you want the highest rated guys in general. Thus the championship teams...they're not taking many 3*s at all.

They do not have to. They just go after the ones that will get them the most publicity, and the ones they know they can get a recruiting bump for. Other teams that are not at the top currently must find the players that are as talented even though not ranked as highly. And…there will be failures within all those players signed. The teams with the highest rankings overall will have the most success because the odds are with them. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to have the best ranked teams. Doesn’t mean we should freak out when the coaches find players they think will succeed.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Let's not get silly.

I'm sorry, but it's too late for that.

 

[Devo182]

It means that recruiting websites have less resources to evaluate HS talent and some 3 stars are underrated because of it.

Of course.

Why we go back to correlations. Clearly there's no absolute. It's like gambling...but gambling on the better odds. Still no guarantees.

 

[Devo182]

They do not have to. They just go after the ones that will get them the most publicity, and the ones they know they can get a recruiting bump for. Other teams that are not at the top currently must find the players that are as talented even though not ranked as highly. And…there will be failures within all those players signed. The teams with the highest rankings overall will have the most success because the odds are with them. Doesn’t mean we shouldn’t try to have the best ranked teams. Doesn’t mean we should freak out when the coaches find players they think will succeed.

Not sure about the top - don't get it. Maybe misreading

Agree with the rest. Play the odds.

100% agree surely don't freak out. Esp if a UT fan, Hype will keep doing more with less. Just gotta hope diamonds are real and not the "Butch diamonds" but it's all for not - just have to be happy with whoever says they are a Vol - good enough for me to have their back. And the FF and negas here will do enough complaining for everyone

 

[Devo182]

Penix was anything but a dud at IU, unless you meant to say stud. He just couldn't stay healthy.

Drake Maye was the best QB in college football last year, imo.

Tbh I just watched him his last year at IU, he went downhill that season.

You're right he seemed to be pretty good before that.

If Maye didn't play in the garbage ACC, he would've been in New York

 

[SSVol]

It really isn't complicated.

Obviously good players are...obviously good. Get them if you can.

Other players are good too, but it isn't as obvious. Get them if you must.

Clearly we spend less time in group #1 than we'd like. That will change, specifically because we now have a competent staff who can clearly find and develop players from group #2.

In the meantime, damn guys, relax and deal with it.

 

[UTProf]

Well… the bammer can’t really say too much to you at the moment. The dawg guys can though… they act like we’re historical rivals

^^This. I noticed it a few years ago but it really amped up last year when Kirby put all kinds of public emphasis on us. Hell, he even said they practiced extra for us (basically stole a week of prep against a soft opponent). And their fans seem to think their victory was some kind of 40 point beat down. No (South Carolina did that) but UGA didn't but to hear UGA fans tell it, they massacred us. They won a football game and won it well but there was no massacre but they can't accept that. It has to be bigger. That's the behavior of an unhinged rival and yet it's one sided right now. I don't think it will stay one sided though. Kirby wants us to be rivals.

 

[Ace]

There are quite a few recruiting posts today in this thread, “Is everything ok?”

 

[butchna]

I'm not sure what convo I even stepped into...pretty sure those 2 have some long running poultry though

But clearly you want the highest rated guys in general. Thus the championship teams...they're not taking many 3*s at all.

But when they do? Josh Jacobs happens. Honorable mention, lil Jahmyr Gibbs…all 3 high school stars of him.

 

[SmokinBob]

This is like a kid getting a paddling in school by the teacher and then going home and getting paddling by both parents.

LOL! That was my folks' rule when I was a kid - get in trouble at school, get in worse trouble when I get home!

 

[Volsdeep4]

There are quite a few recruiting posts today in this thread, “Is everything ok?”

Everything’s gone to sh!t man! We accepted a 3* o lineman. Fahr errrbody (especially you Glen)