OL, OL, OL, OL, OXYGENMAgnesium!?!?!?!
I think maybe you have to judge the OLine with respect to the opponent. So against the Missouri defensive line in 2021 which was ranked #124 in the nation against the run we rushed 59 times and gained 458 yards on the ground at an average pop of 7.76 yards per attempt. We scored 5 rushing TDs.
In 2022 Missouri’s run defense improved to 32nd best in the nation and we only rushed 37 times against them and only gained 264 yards on the ground, averaging only 7.14 yards per attempt. It wasn’t all doom and gloom though as we still scored 5 rushing TDs against them last year. Okay, see, that framing is supposed to be funny. lol
For years I’ve been preaching that an experienced offensive line is incredibly important to the success of most offenses. Bill Connelly got the religion this year when he published his returning production metrics. He uses snaps played for his count and the value of OL returning production is on average almost half of the entire offense’s total number. Anyway, we lost a couple of guys to the NFL and now Cooper is out too so of course people are paying attention.
I think the “concern” with our OLine is probably tied to our opponent. So it’s probably not that we have to worry about everybody on our schedule but maybe right now there’s some concern about us going up against some of the better defensive fronts on our schedule. jmo.
I don’t think we’ll likely learn a lot from the Virginia game as Virginia is pretty much Vanderbilt, if even that. The only presumed strength of their football team, however, is their defensive line, and more specifically, the two starting defensive tackles. They base out of a 4-3 scheme. They don’t appear to have any quality depth behind those two guys so our tempo will probably take a toll. They like to sub at least one of the guys out, the 1-tech, on passing downs. We may not let them do that. Anyway, I’m looking at the first and third quarters when their DL is most fresh to see how well we run the ball. I don’t think they have the edge guys to win against our tackles so I’m looking to see how our interior guys hold up in pass pro. Virginia’s 3-tech is pretty good with TFLs and Sacks. I like all three of our returning running backs for picking up blitzes. jmo.
I could be wrong but based on my scouting I don’t think Virginia, Austin Peay, Florida, UTSA, or South Carolina should be much of a problem for our OLine, even if we’re going with Plan B. So I don’t think we have much to worry about at least as we start out. We should improve as we go because we should be earning around 360+ career snaps per game for our OLine. Experience generally leads to improvement. It may be only after our bye week that we get to find out whether we can hang or not when we line up against the real deal. jmo.
Patrick Brown, I think in the 2-min drill yesterday, suggested that the staff still doesn’t know what they’re going to do on the OL because they’re still moving guys around. I think that’s a misread as Elarbee said just last week that practice reps are scripted in advance to get guys experience at different positions and as we get closer to game week we’ll lock in with our starters. We don’t want to go into the season without having backup guys ready to come in at different spots if necessary. For example, it was reported yesterday that Mincey was running with the 3rd team at left tackle. lol. My read is that we’re trying to get some other guys reps ahead of him because we already know what he brings to the table. jmo.
Below is a list of career snaps for our offensive line as we began each season, 21, 22, and now 23. Obviously we don’t have any 5-stars this year but in 2021 our starters began the season with a combined 3,663 career snaps. In 2022 our starters began the season with a combined 5,243 career snaps. If Cooper is back and the starters are Campbell, Karic, Cooper, Javontez, and Mincey we’d begin 2023 with a combined 5,779 career snaps. If Cooper is not back and we go with Ollie at center and the other 4 are the same then career snaps for the starters would be 4,835. If we go with Addison over either Karic or Ollie then we lose about 540-600 career snaps from whichever total would be in play.
Speaking of that Missouri game in 2021 Ollie played 83 snaps in that game. He played 82 snaps in our win over South Carolina that year too. Dayne Davis was, according to PFF, our highest graded offensive lineman in our loss at Alabama in 2021, a game in which he logged 58 OL snaps. I’ve been watching Ollie in the practice videos from training camp and while we’re only seeing drills I do think Ollie is moving a lot better than he may have been in previous years. jmo.
The purpose of this post is just to reiterate that no one probably needs to worry about our OL until after the bye week, by which time we would have added around 1,800 OL snaps of experience to our resume. That would be before A&M, maybe add 2,200 before Alabama, and something like 3,600 before Georgia. If the concern is talent and not experience then those are likely the only 3 teams in the regular season that may put up a decent fight. Of course we may have to face one of those twice, the second time being in Atlanta. If we draw a TCU like team in the playoffs, we probably don’t need to worry. That leaves only the championship game as another team that could possibly have an elite DLine. No sweat. lol. In any event I think it best not to give into the fear mongers, especially at this point, and instead just enjoy the ride. jmo.
Also maybe worth remembering regarding talent, in 2020 we faced Georgia with an OL of 4 5-stars, all future NFL players, a 6th year 4-star center, and 2 NFL running backs, and could not run the football. We gave up 5 sacks in that showdown and our run stats for the game including sacks were 27 attempts for -1 yards net. lol
Coaching can make a difference, either good or bad. jmo.
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That’s how I do it. Worst and best case. Then just say the median is the likely outcome. (That didn’t work last year!) I got in the habit of using McGill for worst case and Bass for best case. Guess I’m just going to have to use Doc for best case from now on!
Like I said before, I don’t know how any TN fan cannot be rooting for Joe!! I so want him to succeed!
