Florida Offense preview –
(I’ll have the defense in a separate post)
Florida's offensive style of play under Napier is ball control. He wants to shorten the game. Last year Florida had the fewest average number of possessions per game among SEC teams at 10.5. We averaged 12.3 possessions per game. Richardson, though erratic from game to game, added a lot of mobility from the QB position and a deep passing threat to their offense. He's obviously gone.
I think everyone knows that the Gators have been relentlessly mocked for their QB situation coming into this season. I don’t know that redshirt senior Graham Mertz (0.9689) is that bad but I’ve yet to find anyone to say he’s that good. Some Gators think he has a noodle arm so they’re thinking no real vertical shots and he’ll probably throw a few pick sixes trying to get the ball out to the perimeter. He’s not really mobile either. Napier says he’s a game manager and just what he’s looking for. That might be what we’re looking for too, and unlike with Napier, I think most people would figure we’re being serious. jmo.
According to the fans, redshirt sophomore Jack Miller (0.8951), the transfer QB from Ohio State, so far is a total bust but behind Mertz they have what they think could be an underrated possibility in redshirt freshman Max Brown (0.8374). Apparently Brown does have a bit of an arm. So watch out for the backup QB? lol.
While they have a couple productive running backs in junior Montrell Johnson Jr (0.8607) and sophomore Trevor Etienne (0.9261) they lost all their offensive line starters but one from last year’s unit. The only returning starter, 3-star redshirt junior Kingsley Eguakun (0.8730), was the center on that ’22 Oline. Unfortunately he sustained "a lower body injury" near the end of Wednesday’s practice and the last I’ve heard is not participating in practice at the moment. I’m guessing but I figure it’s an ankle. They’re repping redshirt sophomore Jake Slaughter (0.8693) as the backup center. His experience has been limited to special teams units coming into this season.
They don’t have any blue chippers on their OLine and only a limited number of snaps.
The starting left guard, redshirt junior Micah Massccua (0.8608) is new on campus having transferred from Baylor. He had to undergo shoulder surgery after being injured in the early days of spring practice. He earned a number of on field accolades in the Big-12 before transferring. On August 10th it was reported that he had shed the non-contact jersey and is now a full participant in fall camp.
The right tackle is a transfer from Alabama, redshirt junior Damieon George Jr (0.8884) who played limited snaps including 3 starts in 2021 while in Tuscaloosa. He didn’t see any real action in 2022 for Saban for whatever reason.
The other two linemen, left tackle redshirt sophomore Austin Barber (0.8763) and right guard junior Richie Leonard IV (0.8633), have played limited roles as reserves in the past for the Gator Oline but this is their first year as the main guys.
Redshirt senior Dante Zanders (0.8709) is expected to be their featured tight end. He had 10 catches last year for 75 yards. He’s sort of a Princeton Fant type in that he’s been moved around a lot, on both sides of the ball. The starter from last year, senior Keon Zipperer (0.9542) (caught 3 passes for 62 yards including a TD against us last year), sustained a knee injury in spring practice and after surgery was declared out indefinitely.
At wide receiver they return slot receiver senior Ricky Pearsall (0.8478), 33 catches, 661 yards, and 5 TDs last year, including 5 catches for 103 yards and a TD against us. Sophomore Caleb Douglas (0.8859) and redshirt sophomore Marcus Burke (0.9245) are expected to be their two outside receivers. Douglas had 10 catches for 175 yards and 2 TDs last year. He didn’t play against us. Burke had 4 catches for 30 yards and no TDs last year and he didn’t play against us last year either. Douglas is said to have impressive speed and is reported to be a good route runner but he has struggled catching the ball.
There are 3 freshman receivers from the 2023 recruiting class that are getting some buzz in fall camp, Eugene Wilson (0.9494), Aiden Mizell (0.9524), and Andy Jean (0.8958). All three are speedsters and the thinking is as the season progresses Wilson may end up in the slot moving Pearsall to the outside and Mizell would be a deep threat. I don't know about the deep threat as reports have been that Mertz consistently underthrows his receivers. The most likely plan is thought to be get the ball to the speedsters in space and let them make plays.
Apparently Napier may still be looking for help at the receiver position because in early June he offered an unrated Juco kid that was evidently not recruited by anyone else at any level of college football. The kid, Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman, enrolled at Florida on July 1st. The word is he has speed but needs "refinement".
I had previously thought that Florida might have a good chance to “upset” Utah in their opening game given that Utah’s QB, Cam Rising, is questionable and the backup QB, Brandon Rose, is also our for a while, but even with that I’m not sure if Florida can pull off a win. If they do somehow manage a win in Salt Lake I expect they’ll be ranked the following week. At that point they just need to get past McNeese State to set up a top 25 showdown with us. I think they’ll have a good crowd starting out for our game especially if they are undefeated but the crowd may be dwindling by halftime. jmo.
The Florida offense scored an average of 29.5 points per game last year and Bill Connelly in his latest update to his SP+ model suggests that they will improve to 35.5 points per game this year. I think Florida on paper has 9 quality opponents this year and maybe only 3 sure wins. I genuinely have a lot of respect for Bill but this projection on his part may indicate that ESPN doesn’t require drug testing for their analysts. jmo.
