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#8,951
#8,951
BigZiti09 said:
Stats are misleading. I addressed what could be misleading about Shoop's defensive stats. You and lotto choose to worry about the Lebron graphic I posted. It was just a recent misleading stat I saw this week.

And like I said, Shoop's numbers look promising but it doesn't always translate.

Sorry I'm not pumping enough off season sunshine for this thread today.
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I'm as realistic as they come, but you almost have to be blind to not be optimistic about Shoop. It's not like we're changing schemes. He runs the same gap system with just a couple different personnel groupings, has ball hawk defenses, and made his mark in big boy football at Vandy of all places.

OP posted the last 6 years in YPP and with our talent, I see no reason to play that down. And that's not all, his overall defensive rankings are consistently better than what we've had over the same time period.

Statistical trends cannot be refuted. I see no reason to pump the brakes on optimism on D. We have question marks, but Shoop ain't one of em.
 
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#8,952
#8,952
Stats on their own are not misleading, they are by definition factual. The only reason they become misleading is when people try to use them to fit their own narrative or try to predict some future outcome.

Stats are useful and help us quantify what we're seeing. They are super important, but only if you take them with a grain of salt. They help us understand the past better but don't tell us anything concrete about the future. They of course don't predict or guarantee any wins or losses. But they do help us look for trends, which Shoop has a long list of positives.

To say they are for losers is horseradish.
 
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#8,953
#8,953
Catbone said:
My NCAA 16 overall rankings

Offense: 87

Dobbs- 87
Dormady- 74

Hurd- 93
Kamara- 90

Jennings- 82
Smith- 83
Malone- 83
Williams- 86
George- 76
Perry- 79

Wolf- 86
Croom- 80

Richmond- 84
Robertson- 85
Boulware- 85
Thomas- 84
Raulerson- 82
Wiesman- 84
Jones- 85
Hall- 86
Kendrick- 83

Medley- 85
_________________________________

Defense: 90

Barnett- 89
Phillips- 84
Vereen- 83
Kongbo- 84

McKenzie- 88
Tuttle- 90
Vickers- 84
Obrien- 84

JRM- 92
Sapp- 84
Kirkland- 88
Jumper- 72

Foreman- 84
Osborne- 82
Sutton- 91
Henderson- 84
Martin- 87
Mosely- 84
TKjr- 88
Berry- 86
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You're bad at ratings. Boulware over Thomas? Lol.
 
#8,954
#8,954
seaofORANGE22 said:
Stats on their own are not misleading, they are by definition factual. The only reason they become misleading is when people try to use them to fit their own narrative or try to predict some future outcome.

Stats are useful and help us quantify what we're seeing. They are super important, but only if you take them with a grain of salt. They help us understand the past better but don't tell us anything concrete about the future. They of course don't predict or guarantee any wins or losses. But they do help us look for trends, which Shoop has a long list of positives.

To say they are for losers is horseradish.
Click to expand...

Now I want Arby's. Thanks.
 
#8,957
#8,957
I tweaked some of the player ratings and turned Hurd into an absolute monster by accident. His default setting on the updated rosters is probably correct with high tackle breaking and strength but less acceleration. He's extremely tough to bring down but isn't terribly shifty in the open field (he gets to the edge fast but doesn't change direction or cut quickly) with the new ratings, but I turned him into some Bo Jackson in Tecmo Bowl-like player and rushed him for 300 against Florida on Heisman with realistic sliders. At one point he was busting 6-7 yard rushes even when getting hit at the line of scrimmage.

Kamara is actually my favorite player to rush with on NCAA 14 with the new rankings. I slightly bumped his acceleration and elusiveness to match what I saw on the field last year and he's ridiculously quick to get out of the backfield and into daylight.

It's also just awesome to zoom out on defense and see the starting 11. Studs everywhere and they're all 85+ rated players with 3 ranked in the mid 90s and 3 more likely to join them based on their play this season (Kirkland, KMack, Tuttle).

The default roster for the Vols when the game was released in summer 2013 was garbage. I'm not sure there was a single player ranked above 89 that point.
 
#8,959
#8,959
BaldBiker said:
Couple of observations that for no reason at all just popped into my head.

Jalen Hurd

Jalen Hurd needs 176 yds to crack the top 10 for UT leading rushers. Could be done in the first game. Should definitely be done by half-time of the VT game.

Mr. Hurd only needs to avg 75 yds per game to break the record and that is only counting regular season games. His avg per game to date is 84.1 yds per game. :)

He could realistically be about half way there by the end of the Florida game....if not before. (this is assuming CBJ doesn't pull him too early in the 1st three games).

Derek Barnett

Derek Barnett needs thirteen sacks to break Reggie Whites record. While Derek has averaged 10 sacks per year the last two years, this years schedule actually should lend itself to adding a few more sacks to that avg. Our four OOC games this year appear to be overall the weakest it's been in years. Couple that with the fact that several of the SEC teams we play this year are replacing a lot of starters and breaking in new QB's...the season should be record breaking for him as well.

It should not be absurd to think that it is quite possible that Derek could have 6-7 sacks before we even start SEC play against Florida. Let me repeat that to let it sink in a little. It is not crazy to say that Derek Barnett could be 1/2 way to the record 1/4 of the way through the season.
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I think Barnett had 62 pressures last year. Tell the refs to call the holding calls and he'll go ballistic next season.
 
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#8,961
#8,961
seaofORANGE22 said:
Stats on their own are not misleading, they are by definition factual. The only reason they become misleading is when people try to use them to fit their own narrative or try to predict some future outcome.

Stats are useful and help us quantify what we're seeing. They are super important, but only if you take them with a grain of salt. They help us understand the past better but don't tell us anything concrete about the future. They of course don't predict or guarantee any wins or losses. But they do help us look for trends, which Shoop has a long list of positives.

To say they are for losers is horseradish.
Click to expand...

He also has a trend of coaching teams that can't beat you by putting up a lot of points. So yeah his defense has been great statistically but it can be misleading because teams go vanilla against Vandy for sure and I would think PSU a little as well.

I think Shoop is a great hire. All I was saying is that I know the stats and people are getting a little ahead of themselves by saying "look what he did at Vandy with a bunch of potatoes so imagine what he will do with all the talent at Tennessee." It's not that simple. I think he's going to do great but I won't be surprised to see him drop statistically even though in reality he will field a better defense. How is that possible? It's possible because stats don't tell the whole story.
 
#8,962
#8,962
Brillovol said:
I'm as realistic as they come, but you almost have to be blind to not be optimistic about Shoop. It's not like we're changing schemes. He runs the same gap system with just a couple different personnel groupings, has ball hawk defenses, and made his mark in big boy football at Vandy of all places.

OP posted the last 6 years in YPP and with our talent, I see no reason to play that down. And that's not all, his overall defensive rankings are consistently better than what we've had over the same time period.

Statistical trends cannot be refuted. I see no reason to pump the brakes on optimism on D. We have question marks, but Shoop ain't one of em.
Click to expand...

I'm very optimistic.

You're misinterpreting me.
 
#8,964
#8,964
BigZiti09 said:
He also has a trend of coaching teams that can't beat you by putting up a lot of points. So yeah his defense has been great statistically but it can be misleading because teams go vanilla against Vandy for sure and I would think PSU a little as well.

I think Shoop is a great hire. All I was saying is that I know the stats and people are getting a little ahead of themselves by saying "look what he did at Vandy with a bunch of potatoes so imagine what he will do with all the talent at Tennessee." It's not that simple. I think he's going to do great but I won't be surprised to see him drop statistically even though in reality he will field a better defense. How is that possible? It's possible because stats don't tell the whole story.
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Vandy was 80th in yards per play in 2010 and 81st in 2014. Penn State was 42nd in 2013. When he's gone somewhere the defense has gotten better and when he's left it's gotten worse. That's as good an indicator as any that he's a good coach. I guess we're just arguing about why we're optimistic. I feel pretty confident he's an upgrade over Jancek. :hi:
 
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#8,966
#8,966
If I followed this argument on stats and defense to its extreme logical conclusion the way Big Ziti is making it, I could make a pretty compelling case that we all misjudged the Sal Sunseri defense in 2012. The stats of most points allowed in UT history, most consecutive conference games giving up 35+ points in SEC history, etc. etc. were all just statistical aberrations, manipulated by fans and the media to drive Sal out of town.
 
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#8,967
#8,967
triadvolfan said:
Vandy was 80th in yards per play in 2010 and 81st in 2014. Penn State was 42nd in 2013. When he's gone somewhere the defense has gotten better and when he's left it's gotten worse. That's as good an indicator as any that he's a good coach. I guess we're just arguing about why we're optimistic. I feel pretty confident he's an upgrade over Jancek. :hi:
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I think he is an upgrade as well. Love the hire and I think he is going to kill it here.

I just want to see this defense get off the field when it needs to. I want to see them get after the quarterback and cause turnovers. Most importantly, can the defense get the stop when it has to have it and get the offense back on the field? There's not a stat for that.
 
#8,968
#8,968
BigZiti09 said:
I think he is an upgrade as well. Love the hire and I think he is going to kill it here.

I just want to see this defense get off the field when it needs to. I want to see them get after the quarterback and cause turnovers. Most importantly, can the defense get the stop when it has to have it and get the offense back on the field? There's not a stat for that.
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Yes, yes there is. It's called 3rd/ 4th down efficiency rating.
 
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#8,970
#8,970
BigZiti09 said:
He also has a trend of coaching teams that can't beat you by putting up a lot of points. So yeah his defense has been great statistically but it can be misleading because teams go vanilla against Vandy for sure and I would think PSU a little as well.

I think Shoop is a great hire. All I was saying is that I know the stats and people are getting a little ahead of themselves by saying "look what he did at Vandy with a bunch of potatoes so imagine what he will do with all the talent at Tennessee." It's not that simple. I think he's going to do great but I won't be surprised to see him drop statistically even though in reality he will field a better defense. How is that possible? It's possible because stats don't tell the whole story.
Click to expand...

I get what you're trying to say.

But "stats are for losers" was my only real hang up. I don't think you even really believe that.
 
#8,971
#8,971
MockingVol said:
Yes, yes there is. It's called 3rd/ 4th down efficiency rating.
Click to expand...

No. That's not a stat for what I am talking about.

I'm talking about this not happening in the 4th quarter..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjotaPaMY5U

I'm talking about getting stops when you need them. I don't care what you do against app state or if Vandy piles up points against your 2nd and 3rd string. Those kind of things are tallied in the stat you are speaking of. I don't care about that stat. I care about "Can you get off the field when the game is on the line" which is why I loved what Shoop said on the Basilio show.
 
#8,972
#8,972
seaofORANGE22 said:
I get what you're trying to say.

But "stats are for losers" was my only real hang up. I don't think you even really believe that.
Click to expand...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XueXrg6Yj1o

I do believe it. There's too many contributing factors that make it hard to take stats at face value.

I don't need stats to tell me which teams have a good defense. Watching the games will do that.
 
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#8,973
#8,973
jave36 said:
And another 5* WR eliminated them from his top group. Love it. Sumlin going to be gone after this year I think.
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They are all leaving because the WR coach Aaron Moorehead subtweeted Tate Martell after he decommitted. If you have time, go check out the dumpster fire on his timeline.
 
#8,974
#8,974
BigZiti09 said:
No. That's not a stat for what I am talking about.

I'm talking about this not happening in the 4th quarter..... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JjotaPaMY5U

I'm talking about getting stops when you need them. I don't care what you do against app state or if Vandy piles up points against your 2nd and 3rd string. Those kind of things are tallied in the stat you are speaking of. I don't care about that stat. I care about "Can you get off the field when the game is on the line" which is why I loved what Shoop said on the Basilio show.
Click to expand...

So basically what you're talking about is...












... 3rd/ 4th down efficiency ranking? It would take all of an hour or two to compile that stat while controlling for opponent/ string.
 
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#8,975
#8,975
MockingVol said:
So basically what you're talking about is...












... 3rd/ 4th down efficiency ranking? It would take all of an hour or two to compile that stat while controlling for opponent/ string.
Click to expand...


You would need to do it for everyone. Look, I'm not a stat guy and you are. It's ok.

Bob Shoop will have other teams begging us to just run the clock to get the game over with. Offensive coordinators will be soiling their pants at the sight of his defense. We may not give up a first down all year.
 
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