The Vols got to continue to test their mettle against weaker opponents during week two, notching a 34-19 victory over Arkansas State. While not as dominant as they were against Utah State, a win is a win, and the Vols look forward to their first road trip of the season, and it's a big one... #4 Oklahoma.
I apologize for the lack of optimism in my prediction, but I try to be objective, so here it is.
Keys to the game:
1. Passing game MUST grow: Ok, first the good news. Justin Worley is completing 65% of his passes on the season. He looks confident, accurate and is doing a good job. Now, the bad news. He has yet to connect on a deep ball, and has done below average with any ball in the air for over 15 yards.
Now, you will begin to see teams with real Division 1 talent lock our receivers up on the line to take away the short game, and to force Worley to throw downfield. The worse news... the OL will not be able to give him time to even have a chance at that. Worley does not do well on the run, or when his feet are not set. Sacks, forced throws, and weak throws are about to begin to happen, and it will not be pretty.
2. Open up the run game: Through the first two games, TN still has not broken a huge run. This should be of great concern, given the supposed talent differential. Hurd just had a nice game, having several runs of around 6 yards. However, about half the time, he is getting popped as he gets the ball, or when he reaches the line of scrimmage. It's the same with Marlin Lane.
The offensive line, especially on the left side is collapsing way too fast, and when you have a talented team such as Oklahoma coming on the blitz, this could get messy.
OK has allowed 148 rushing yards, with most of that coming well after the game was decided, and a paltry 2.34 YPC. With TN averaging 3.3 YPC, look for more of the same. Worst case scenario would be one of those terrible negative rushing yard games that we have had against Florida, and that is not completely off the table, IMO.
3. Slow down Oklahoma: The Sooners are explosive on offense. They have scored 100 points while totaling 1016 yards of offense. Against Tulsa, 8.4 yards per pass, and 8.4 yards per carry. Pick your poison.
Players to watch include RB Keith Ford 7.26 YPC and WR Sterling Shepherd 18.83 YP catch
The Tennessee defense is greatly improved this year, so this will be a real test for them. The defense needs to hold.
How TN could win: Tennessee continues to use the short passing game effectively, keeping the Sooner offense off of the field, and the defense, cheating up gets beat on some long balls. Bajakian tries some new things in the running game (fullback or dropping the read option) to get a decent ground game going (highly unlikely). The defense is able to force turnovers, and TN capitalizes on them.
How it will go: The Oklahoma game will provide a barometer of where the Vols are at. I think the offense will struggle in an awful way, and while the defense plays a hard game, is still outgunned by the talented Sooner offense.
TN 10
OK 38