Severe Weather Thread

#2,852
#2,852
West and Middle Tennessee have a TOR CON factor of 4. East Tennessee has a TOR CON factor of 3.

Multiply the TOR CON factor by 10 and to get the actual chance of a tornado being spotted within 50 miles of your home.
 
#2,853
#2,853
Tux said:
West and Middle Tennessee have a TOR CON factor of 4. East Tennessee has a TOR CON factor of 3.

Multiply the TOR CON factor by 10 and to get the actual chance of a tornado being spotted within 50 miles of your home.
Click to expand...

Meh, TOR:CON kinda sucks compared to the SPC's tornado forecast. It uses a larger land area, so it makes the threat seem bigger than it actually may be.

Speaking of the SPC's tornado forecast, it's got Middle and West TN as having a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point, and has East TN at a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Middle and West TN are also under a 30% chance of thunderstorm winds greater than 58 MPH, and parts of that area have a 10% chance or greater of having thunderstorm winds greater than 75 MPH.
 
#2,854
#2,854
Don't expect much for West Tn

Cool and cloudy right now and its not likely to get sunny and warm enough to create any huge supercells

Middle Tn will likely get much worse weather than West Tn

Middle Tn should fire up around 5:00 to 6:00
 
#2,855
#2,855
CountVolcula said:
Don't expect much for West Tn

Cool and cloudy right now and its not likely to get sunny and warm enough to create any huge supercells

Middle Tn will likely get much worse weather than West Tn

Middle Tn should fire up around 5:00 to 6:00
Click to expand...

What about east tn?
 
#2,857
#2,857
It's been cloudy and windy all day. So I'm hoping we don't get as serve weather as we were expecting.
 
#2,862
#2,862
KingNick865 said:
Meh, TOR:CON kinda sucks compared to the SPC's tornado forecast. It uses a larger land area, so it makes the threat seem bigger than it actually may be.

Speaking of the SPC's tornado forecast, it's got Middle and West TN as having a 5% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point, and has East TN at a 2% chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

Middle and West TN are also under a 30% chance of thunderstorm winds greater than 58 MPH, and parts of that area have a 10% chance or greater of having thunderstorm winds greater than 75 MPH.
Click to expand...

The TOR Con Factor was dead on tonight. Tornadoes all along the squall one's leading edge from south to the north in middle Tennessee.
 
#2,864
#2,864
Great.....Jefferson County just went under a tornado watch untill 5AM. As long as I don't have to hear that dang air raid siren again.
 
#2,866
#2,866
stuff got a little crazy last night in franklin

saw the green glow of a few transformers blowing up, but aside from straight line winds, there was nothing too intense
 
#2,870
#2,870
For Thursday:
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#2,872
#2,872
It is likely going to be pretty rough for areas of Missouri. Arkansas. Kentucky. Illinois, and TN this afternoon and tonight

Right now, I say that Central and Eastern Arkansas and Southern, Central Missouri, Southern Illinois will be the worst. West Kentucky and West TN will likely be impacted between 7 pm and midnight.

Likely scenario is that supercells will develop over Central Arkansas, Missouri and they will form into a squall line as they move east. The line should be formed prior to reaching the Mississippi River. Any supercells that form ahead of the line will likely contain strong tornadoes.

Right now, the atmosphere is ripe for an outbreak, with plenty of moisture and instability to support large supercells.

If the sun stays out for a long period of time, I would say that we could see some very bad weather. Hopefully cloud cover will build and keep the threat lower
 
#2,873
#2,873
CountVolcula said:
It is likely going to be pretty rough for areas of Missouri. Arkansas. Kentucky. Illinois, and TN this afternoon and tonight

Right now, I say that Central and Eastern Arkansas and Southern, Central Missouri, Southern Illinois will be the worst. West Kentucky and West TN will likely be impacted between 7 pm and midnight.

Likely scenario is that supercells will develop over Central Arkansas, Missouri and they will form into a squall line as they move east. The line should be formed prior to reaching the Mississippi River. Any supercells that form ahead of the line will likely contain strong tornadoes.

Right now, the atmosphere is ripe for an outbreak, with plenty of moisture and instability to support large supercells.

If the sun stays out for a long period of time, I would say that we could see some very bad weather. Hopefully cloud cover will build and keep the threat lower
Click to expand...

Right now the clouds are out so here is to hoping the best. :hi:
 
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#2,874
#2,874
Been intermittent cloud coverage here in Chattanooga. However the sun has been out a lot today/ I'm expecting some umm fun weather tomorrow.
 
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