@LouderVol, thanks for this thoughtful observation.
Here's where my head is:
1) Since around 15 years ago, SEC top-tier teams have typically been in the AP top 5. They invariably meet Bud Elliott's 50% blue chip ratio metric, and they typically have 7 or more NFL draft picks each season.
2) Meanwhile, SEC mid-tier teams
also produce NFL draft picks. This particular year, Oklahoma will face more upper-end SEC teams, later Oklahoma will face more lower-end teams. Using the 2024 NFL draft as an average, SEC's mid-tier teams produced around 1 more draft pick per team than Oklahoma's Big XII competition (2.9 per SEC team; 1.6 per Big XII team if you don't include outlier Texas).
3) Mizzu and Texas A&M left the Big XII and joined the SEC 12 years ago. Their results in the Big XII during the 12 years before the transition compared to their results in the SEC for these past 12 years are very similar: both teams went from a middle-of-the-pack Big XII team to a middle-of-the-pack SEC team.
4) In the past 5 years, Oklahoma's Big XII opponents played Oklahoma's new opponents from the SEC's mid-tier in 15 games (either bowl games or occ games). The Big XII's record in those fifteen games was 8-7-0 (0.533).
When I reflect on where the team is right now (Oklahoma is expected to have a very stout defense and an offense with unknowns surrounding the QB and OL), I feel like 8-4 or 9-3 is the most likely outcome for 2024, and that Oklahoma will trend up in subsequent years.
I agree that Oklahoma will have more "must-see" games in the SEC (one of the driving factors behind the realignment). I think Oklahoma will have a lot of tough games, and I think they will win the majority of them.
Over the next 5 years, I expect a mid-tier SEC with the following teams: Texas A&M, Mizzu, Ole Miss, Auburn, Texas, LSU, Florida and either Kentucky or Arkansas.
Over that same 5 years, I think Oklahoma along with Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee will rise to the top.