stock market was up today...

#14,151
#14,151
So many markets moving drastically. Is this something to be worried about? What do we think the cause is? Natural correction, fear, insiders moving and everyone else trying to position themselves as well?
 
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#14,152
#14,152
KB5252 said:
So many markets moving drastically. Is this something to be worried about? What do we think the cause is? Natural correction, fear, insiders moving and everyone else trying to position themselves as well?
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a possible combination of Biden/Harris recession has arrived, interest rates still high and a possible major destructive war in the middle east....

They kept giving false employment numbers for a long time to to prop up Biden but they consistently had revisions to those numbers and now people are 'surprised' the job numbers have actually been weak....



 
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#14,153
#14,153
KB5252 said:
So many markets moving drastically. Is this something to be worried about? What do we think the cause is? Natural correction, fear, insiders moving and everyone else trying to position themselves as well?
Click to expand...
There are normally corrections this time of year....but, people are out of money, too far in debt, commercial real estate is a mess.....banks? This could be the start of the recession. Oh yeah, layoffs have begun too. Government induced recession because of inflation.
 
#14,154
#14,154
KB5252 said:
So many markets moving drastically. Is this something to be worried about?
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Only if you are a short term investor or need to liquidate.
KB5252 said:
What do we think the cause is?
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Concerns about future economic trends magnified by intense Fear of Loss.
KB5252 said:
Natural correction, fear, insiders moving and everyone else trying to position themselves as well?
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All the above.

I'm not a stock investor but I think hyper-volatile swings tend to follow this pattern.

For the investors who keep their wits, it will be a buying opportunity.
 
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#14,158
#14,158
The poorly managed US economy is being exposed. 70% of it is based on consumers. Inflation has been bad for several years. Fed interest rates have been too jacked up and are too slow to turn down. Employment numbers have been fiction. Smoke and mirror reporting has hidden the real employment situation with many workers deciding to not participate and the jobs created haven’t been of the highest quality.

The $30k/year paid to not work (which Trump initiated) was one of the biggest miscues ever. It spoiled those entering the workforce.
 
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#14,159
#14,159
jmacvols1 said:
a possible combination of Biden/Harris recession has arrived, interest rates still high and a possible major destructive war in the middle east....

They kept giving false employment numbers for a long time to to prop up Biden but they consistently had revisions to those numbers and now people are 'surprised' the job numbers have actually been weak....



Click to expand...

Don't think Biden/Harris or ME events have anything to do with it. Those risks have been there for over a year. The markets have absolutely ripped higher this calendar year. The S&P was up almost 20% YTD at one point.

The proximate cause of this selloff IMO is folks wanting to see more of a sense of urgency about cutting and they didn't get it last week. The yen carry trade unwinding doesn't help either.
 
#14,160
#14,160
05_never_again said:
Don't think Biden/Harris or ME events have anything to do with it. Those risks have been there for over a year. The markets have absolutely ripped higher this calendar year. The S&P was up almost 20% YTD at one point.

The proximate cause of this selloff IMO is folks wanting to see more of a sense of urgency about cutting and they didn't get it last week. The yen carry trade unwinding doesn't help either.
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Don't agree, Biden/Harris regime have a lot to do with it.
 
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#14,161
#14,161
05_never_again said:
Don't think Biden/Harris or ME events have anything to do with it. Those risks have been there for over a year. The markets have absolutely ripped higher this calendar year. The S&P was up almost 20% YTD at one point.

The proximate cause of this selloff IMO is folks wanting to see more of a sense of urgency about cutting and they didn't get it last week. The yen carry trade unwinding doesn't help either.
Click to expand...

The sell off is rippling across the globe, but I think that issues in the US are being compounded by many events and scenarios.

No rate cut. A 100% expectation of the September cut was priced in so unless the Fed pulled off a stunner by cutting in July, the upside was capped.

The Magnificent 7 is still correcting.

A Trump win isn’t a slam dunk.

Plus the ME is on fire as is Ukraine.

China is still very much a risk. Taiwan is a dangerous front.

The domestic labor issues are compounding. The generation entering the workforce is small. Boomers are retiring in huge numbers. Also illegal immigrants have decome too much of a critical source to fill the low end jobs.
 
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#14,162
#14,162
Thunder Good-Oil said:
The sell off is rippling across the globe, but I think that issues in the US are being compounded by many events and scenarios.

No rate cut. A 100% expectation of the September cut was priced in so unless the Fed pulled off a stunner by cutting in July, the upside was capped.

The Magnificent 7 is still correcting.

A Trump win isn’t a slam dunk.

Plus the ME is on fire as is Ukraine.

China is still very much a risk. Taiwan is a dangerous front.

The domestic labor issues are compounding. The generation entering the workforce is small. Boomers are retiring in huge numbers. Also illegal immigrants have decome too much of a critical source to fill the low end jobs.
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Those are such long-range, long-term problems that don't have anything to do with a 2-week long selloff. Those have been foreseeable issues for years and the circumstances around them haven't changed in the last 2 weeks. The ME and Ukraine have been on fire for 2+ years.

IMO this is about sentiment changing around the Fed and thinking they made a mistake last week, plus the BOJ minutes release last week that has freaked out carry traders.
 
#14,166
#14,166
05_never_again said:
Those are such long-range, long-term problems that don't have anything to do with a 2-week long selloff. Those have been foreseeable issues for years and the circumstances around them haven't changed in the last 2 weeks. The ME and Ukraine have been on fire for 2+ years.

IMO this is about sentiment changing around the Fed and thinking they made a mistake last week, plus the BOJ minutes release last week that has freaked out carry traders.
Click to expand...

Labor has been an issue for a long time. But the markets have been ignoring it. We have a consumer based economy and the lower end is getting hammered.
 
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#14,171
#14,171
Consumer debt is also extremely high, once again. The precursor to the financial crisis of 08/09 was that the US had the highest rate of credit card default in history before everyone started mailing in their house keys to the banks. Credit markets have weakened, too. Wages are up, but inflation has been persistent, only showing moderate signs of improvement over the past few months due to Fed action. Wouldn’t want to be JP right now. Cut rates to spur growth and could reignite inflation again. Fed is in for wild swings trying to manage this as we continue to pile on debt which = inflation. Over $35T in debt and better than 120% debt/gdp ratio. Chickens are coming home to roost.
 
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