Stop with the complaining over 3* recruits

#126
#126
BloodRunsR&B said:
It does hold water. Here's why.

Roughly a third of draftees are 4 and 5 star, roughly a third are 3 star, roughly a third are 2 star or unrated. There are around 350 4 and five star recruits each year, 1000 3 star recruits, and 2500+ 2 star and unrated recruits

224 draftees a year. Rough numbers, 75 will be 4 and 5 stars, 75 will be 3 stars, 75 will be 2 stars or unrated.

That means that a 4 or 5 star player on your roster has about a 1 in 5 chance of being an NFL talent. A 3 star has a 1 in 13 chance of being NFL talent. Others have around a 1 in 33 chance.

Here's the rub. Butch can obviously evaluate and develop talent, I don't think there is much arguing that. But given the general odds, out of 15 3 stars, he probably has 1 NFL guy, maybe as many as 3 if you consider that he has evaluated well. But imagine if he had 15 4 stars...given the same considerations towards Butch's ability to evaluate talent as with the group of 3 stars, he would be working with and developing perhaps as many as 5 or 6 NFL talent guys in a class.

The point is never that you cannot win with three stars. Shoot, the Miracle on Ice is a thing because David does defeat Goliath sometimes. But your odds are far longer.

And lastly, recruiting rankings 10 years ago were not what they are now. There is more money and focus on it now than ever before and I think we will see the ranking accuracy reflect that (more recruiting analysts to cover more recruits, less guys missed, more experience, more historical data readily available at the HS level, etc.).
Click to expand...


Where did you get those numbers? Wait, I know. LOL
 
#127
#127
CrunchingTheVolz said:
Recruiting changes. Coaches will need to be willing to change with it. Especially if what you're doing isn't working. I'd think our current situation should have them rethinking what they are doing.
Click to expand...

Bottom line, they know far more than you. There is your "lesson."
 
#132
#132
volmanic said:
I have not posted on here in some time now, but I am seeing all over social media the bashing on our coaching staff because we have a total of 15 3* recruits for 2017. This post is not directed at any single person, it's just please stop and trust what our coaches are doing. It's easy for all of the armchair coaches to talk negatively about our coaching staff, and the talent they are bringing in.

So I thought I would do some research on some of the top NFL names, and where they were coming out of High School. This is just some of the names I found, and there were plenty more I could have added:

J.J. Watt- 2*

LeVeon Bell- 2*

Marcus Mariota- 3*

Antonio Brown- 2*

Aaron Rodgers- 3*

Cameron Sutton ( still in college) but was a 2*

Victor Cruz- 2*

Jordy Nelson- 2*

Chris Johnson- 2*

Julius Thomas- 2*

Demarcus Ware- Unrated

Ed Reed- Unrated

Eric Fisher- 2*

Tyler Eifert- 3*

Dontari Poe- 2*

Demarius Thomas- 3*

Malcolm Jenkins- 3*

Clay Matthews- Unrated


Trust our coaches!!! Go Vols!
Click to expand...

I do somewhat agree. Although now there are 4 different major recruiting services Rivals,Scout,247 and ESPN. We have several guys who are a 3* on one site and a 4* on another. I honestly look at offer lists more than ratings. We have several guys who have at worst 4* offer lists and are still 3* on some or all sites. I would like to see us with more higher rated guys and get them with consistency like Ala,LSU,Ohio St,Clemson etc seem to get every year and hopefully with the season we are expecting that it helps do that this year. But so many things will change between now and Feb and like previous Butch years we will add and drop players from here till signing day. It's unfortunate for some players but it's the world we live in now.
 
#133
#133
LittleVol said:
Are you implying that Butch hasn't?
Click to expand...

I definitely believe Butch makes the state players priority and not sure why he isn't getting more of the higher rated instate guys. I do understand some kids wanting to leave the state just to get away from everything. We get out of state players from GA and FL every year so it happens everywhere. But the way TN HS football has improved and there being more SEC type players every year I would like to see more TN kids stay home and play for their state university. Smith and Chandler would be huge gets to go along with Gray,Jackson and the other instate committs.Hopefully Higgins changes his mind closer to signing day and Stevens decides to stay home. Winning will go a long way this year.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#134
#134
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I feel way too many TN kids who CAN play at Tennessee are not being made a priority. Yes, I think the staff needs to do a much better job recruiting instate.
Click to expand...

So you would not complain if TN took a 3* TN player over a 4* or 5* player from another state?

Oh wait - 4 of the current TN commitments are 3* from TN and most are complaining because TN is offering to 3*.
 
#135
#135
volfan102455 said:
So you would not complain if TN took a 3* TN player over a 4* or 5* player from another state?

Oh wait - 4 of the current TN commitments are 3* from TN and most are complaining because TN is offering to 3*.
Click to expand...

Oddly enough in ALOT of cases when the fans claim a TN kid isn't good enough to be a Vol, the out of state guy we take same position wise is even lower rated. IMO, poor decisions.
 
#136
#136
volfan102455 said:
Past 10 teams - only 2 champions averaged in the top 5, that was Alabama. 2 were in the greater than 10 average (17 and 13). The other 6 averaged in the 6 - 8 range with interestingly 4 of them averaging around 7. An average around 7 appears to be the lucky number.

Of the 10 teams only Alabama was in the top 10 all recruiting years associated with two of their titles and that was 2012 and 2015. All other 8 years the school had at least 1 year, some more, where they did not rank in the top 10.

If you go back 13 years, you pick up 2 other teams that failed to meet the average in the top 10.

I think recruiting helps but IMO it is more a matter of getting the right group of players that compliment each other within the offensive and defensive schemes that are played.

If NC = recruiting rating, then why do the teams need coaching? Just let them go out there and line up and play.
Click to expand...

Get out of here with facts and logic. This is VN. Where the fanbase knows significantly more about all aspects of football than Butch and his staff. If we dont finish top 5 every single season in recruiting, we suck and will never win anything. Those facts you posted are accurate for every team except Tennessee.
 
#137
#137
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I feel way too many TN kids who CAN play at Tennessee are not being made a priority. Yes, I think the staff needs to do a much better job recruiting instate.
Click to expand...

The problem I have with this statement is the general public is not privy to the detailed discussions that occur during the recruiting process, so how can we know they are not being made a priority? Maybe the coaches see them playing in a role that doesn't fit the players interests, or they are searching for an academic program the school does not offer, the parents just don't feel comfortable about something, or any other of 100's of possible issues that can and do come up. An opinion that a player CAN play at UT is only one issue among hundreds of others that come into play in the recruiting process.

JMO, but the coaches are the ones whose jobs are on the line and have the most to lose if they don't identify and recruit the players that allows the team the best chance for success. I trust them to find the best players, in state or out of state, that fits their system, coach them up, and let's see what happens in 2-3 years when they actually get significant playing time.
 
#138
#138
Big151Orange said:
The problem I have with this statement is the general public is not privy to the detailed discussions that occur during the recruiting process, so how can we know they are not being made a priority? Maybe the coaches see them playing in a role that doesn't fit the players interests, or they are searching for an academic program the school does not offer, the parents just don't feel comfortable about something, or any other of 100's of possible issues that can and do come up. An opinion that a player CAN play at UT is only one issue among hundreds of others that come into play in the recruiting process.

JMO, but the coaches are the ones whose jobs are on the line and have the most to lose if they don't identify and recruit the players that allows the team the best chance for success. I trust them to find the best players, in state or out of state, that fits their system, coach them up, and let's see what happens in 2-3 years when they actually get significant playing time.
Click to expand...

You're fighting a losing battle here with crunch. Recruiting is not as complex as you make it sound. A good coach who can recruit should ALWAYS land the states top recruits.
 
#139
#139
BigOrangeTrain said:
You're fighting a losing battle here with crunch. Recruiting is not as complex as you make it sound. A good coach who can recruit should ALWAYS land the states top recruits.
Click to expand...

I believe it can be done. Maybe not 100%, but 80-90% is possible.

Lots of mistakes IMO. How about passing on instate Nate Johnson in favor of Cory Henderson? Johnson signed with Michigan. It might have worked out, except Henderson didn't even qualify. Just one example of many.
 
#140
#140
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I believe it can be done. Maybe not 100%, but 80-90% is possible.

Lots of mistakes IMO. How about passing on instate Nate Johnson in favor of Cory Henderson? Johnson signed with Michigan. It might have worked out, except Henderson didn't even qualify. Just one example of many.
Click to expand...

Like the other poster said, the coaches know way more than you do. Also, you're not privy to what Butch and the staff discuss on a daily basis.
 
#141
#141
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I believe it can be done. Maybe not 100%, but 80-90% is possible.

Lots of mistakes IMO. How about passing on instate Nate Johnson in favor of Cory Henderson? Johnson signed with Michigan. It might have worked out, except Henderson didn't even qualify. Just one example of many.
Click to expand...

There were quite a few WR signed in 2016 including a 4*. Johnson was a 3*.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#143
#143
volfan102455 said:
There were quite a few WR signed in 2016 including a 4*. Johnson was a 3*.
Click to expand...

Yes there was. B.Johnson was a 3*, Henderson a 3*, and Williams was a 3*. George was a 3*. Byrd was a 4*. Callaway was a 4* I believe. Nate Johnson I believe was higher rated than several of the 3*'s. Not that it mattered though as like I said, Henderson didn't even make it in.

Obviously a couple others were Mitchell and Vaughn who I believe were both instate 4* WRs we didn't get. 2016 in general was a let down for me instate wise. Lots of misses.
 
Last edited:
#144
#144
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I believe it can be done. Maybe not 100%, but 80-90% is possible.

Lots of mistakes IMO. How about passing on instate Nate Johnson in favor of Cory Henderson? Johnson signed with Michigan. It might have worked out, except Henderson didn't even qualify. Just one example of many.
Click to expand...

The state of TN does not have a monopoly on hs players who can be successful at UT. If we don't get 80-90% of the instate players doesn't mean the team won't be successful. If you're not happy unless we are playing with mostly in staters rather than the overall success of the team, not much else we can say!
 
#145
#145
Big151Orange said:
The state of TN does not have a monopoly on hs players who can be successful at UT. If we don't get 80-90% of the instate players doesn't mean the team won't be successful. If you're not happy unless we are playing with mostly in staters rather than the overall success of the team, not much else we can say!
Click to expand...

I believe we could make instate recruiting a priority again, sign half our class with instate kids, and in doing so cut the garbage offers by at least 50%.
 
#146
#146
CrunchingTheVolz said:
Yes there was. B.Johnson was a 3*, Henderson a 3*, and Williams was a 3*. George was a 3*. Byrd was a 4*. Callaway was a 4* I believe. Nate Johnson I believe was higher rated than several of the 3*'s. Not that it mattered though as like I said, Henderson didn't even make it in.

Obviously a couple others were Mitchell and Vaughn who I believe were both instate 4* WRs we didn't get. 2016 in general was a let down for me instate wise. Lots of misses.
Click to expand...

Tennessee HS Football is definitely getting better, but eh, not powerhouse worthy competition IMO. Take the best highly rated prospects of course and move on. Star rankings from Tenn HS vs other states I take with a grain of salt.
 
#147
#147
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I feel way too many TN kids who CAN play at Tennessee are not being made a priority. Yes, I think the staff needs to do a much better job recruiting instate.
Click to expand...

I think Butch had done an amazing job in- state

JRM
HURD
BARNETT
KELLY JR
ROBERSON
MARTIN
RICHMOND

Those are NFL guys all from Tennessee.

Gaulden and Foreman are decent players as well.

I think ur still upset about Hayden.
Rodgers hates UT
Higgins feels obligation $$$
Stevens is a bayou transplant

Not sure why Richardson wasn't a priority. Hes a damn train.
But were going after Chandler pretty hard!

We have fertile recruiting ground in the Carolinas and GA. We can only sign so many players a year.

Recruiting is s deep stratigical game. Have to keep pipelines flowing, instate and out.

Imo... Charlotte area is much more important than say Memphis and Chattanooga area combined. But we still need to recruit our state.
 
Last edited:
#148
#148
LittleVol said:
I think Butch had done an amazing job in- state

JRM
HURD
BARNETT
KELLY JR
ROBERSON
MARTIN
RICHMOND

Those are NFL guys all from Tennessee.

Gaulden and Foreman are decent players as well.

I think ur still upset about Hayden.
Rodgers hates UT
Higgins feels obligation $$$
Stevens is a bayou transplant

Not sure why Richardson wasn't a priority. Hes a damn train.
But were going after Chandler pretty hard!

We have fertile recruiting ground in the Carolinas and GA. We can only sign so many players a year.

Recruiting is s deep stratigical game. Have to keep pipelines flowing, instate and out.

Imo... Charlotte area is much more important than say Memphis and Chattanooga area combined. But we still need to recruit our state.
Click to expand...

2014 & 2015 were solid instate wise. The staff fell off last class. Its continued this class. With the guys in the 2018 & 2019 classes, they better get it fixed quickly. Other schools are loving the fact they can just walk in and scoop up the talent.
 
#149
#149
CrunchingTheVolz said:
I believe we could make instate recruiting a priority again, sign half our class with instate kids, and in doing so cut the garbage offers by at least 50%.
Click to expand...

Mitchell was Oregon bound.

However, their are a few players we slow played the past few years.

Kareem Orr out of Chattanooga is a very good player in the Pac- 12 for example.

This year with Jacob Phillips, not sure why we aren't going after him, but we are going after Foster.
And again Richardson... not sure whats going on there
 
#150
#150
CrunchingTheVolz said:
2014 & 2015 were solid instate wise. The staff fell off last class. Its continued this class. With the guys in the 2018 & 2019 classes, they better get it fixed quickly. Other schools are loving the fact they can just walk in and scoop up the talent.
Click to expand...

Weve got Mays and Taylor for 2018. Both top 100 players.
That could change, but 2017 could too. I wasn't very impressed 2016
Instate talent. We didnt miss too much there.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top